2020 could be very close folks. Racist whites are the minority but the electoral college was made for them.
by digby
Nate Cohn of the NY Times wrote a scary analysis showing that Trump could lose the popular vote by five million people and still win the electoral college — which actually seems to be Trump’s strategy:
President Trump’s approval ratings are underwater in national polls. His position for re-election, on the other hand, might not be quite so bleak.
His advantage in the Electoral College, relative to the national popular vote, may be even larger than it was in 2016, according to an Upshot analysis of election results and polling data.
That persistent edge leaves him closer to re-election than one would think based on national polls, and it might blunt any electoral cost of actions like his recent tweets attacking four minority congresswomen.
For now, the mostly white working-class Rust Belt states, decisive in the 2016 election, remain at the center of the electoral map, based on our estimates. The Democrats have few obviously promising alternative paths to win without these battleground states. The president’s approval ratings remain higher in the Sun Belt battlegrounds than in the Rust Belt, despite Democratic hopes of a breakthrough.
The president’s views on immigration and trade play relatively well in the Northern battlegrounds, including among the pivotal Obama-Trump voters.
There are signs that some of these voters have soured on his presidency, based on recent polling. There is also reason to think that white working-class voters who supported Mr. Trump were relatively likely to stay home in last November’s midterm elections.
A strategy rooted in racial polarization could at once energize parts of the president’s base and rebuild support among wavering white working-class voters. Many of these voters backed Mr. Trump in the first place in part because of his views on hot-button issues, including on immigration and race.
Alone, the president’s relative advantage in the Electoral College does not necessarily make him a favorite to win. His approval rating is well beneath 50 percent in states worth more than 270 electoral votes, including in the Northern battleground states that decided the 2016 election.
And just because racial polarization could work to the president’s advantage in general doesn’t mean that his particular tactics will prove effective. The president’s campaign rally on Wednesday night seemed, for a time, to go too far even for him: on Thursday he disavowed the “send her back” chants that supporters directed toward a congresswoman who immigrated to the United States as a refugee. (By Friday, he was declining to condemn the chants.)
But Mr. Trump’s approval rating has been stable even after seemingly big missteps. And if it improves by a modest amount — not unusual for incumbents with a strong economy — he could have a distinct chance to win re-election while losing the popular vote by more than he did in 2016, when he lost it by 2.1 percentage points.
Yikes.
Ron Brownstein doesn’t see it quite so starkly. He tweeted this:
One part of EC debate that confuses me: even in the key blue-collar states (WI/PA/MI) relying on recapturing lots of working-class whites isn’t the only way to win. Even apart from turnout, Trump’s overt racism could provide Ds bigger margin w/other groups-col+ whites, young than in 16.
And despite his racial appeals, his hold on working-class whites, especially women, in MW isn’t as strong as in South. In 18 exits 46-48% of non-college white women disapproved of him in WI/PA/MI, largely because of the ACA.
Attacking immigrants may help with some but doesn’t erase those concerns. WI is indeed toughest for Ds (most blue-collar white), but it’s not like open racism is electoral Kryptonite even there. There are real offsetting costs, plus the implications for AZ (where majority of under-40 population is already minority).
The demagogue in chief is a powerful inspiration to racists everywhere, to be sure. But he’s not gaining any racist voters. They all loved him from the get. If this is his strategy it solves the dilemma for Democrats once and for all. There is no margin in trying to poach any of his voters. They have to get everyone else out to vote.
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