Unless Rep. Adam Schiff has something extraordinary up his sleeve, no deus ex machina is flying in on a clothesline to save the republic from Donald Trump and Mitch’s Potemkin court. Trump acquitted will be a more truculent enfant terrible than he is now. Reelected, he will do to America what he’s already done to Lindsey Graham. He’s already made Republicans his vassals.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has made no secret of his interests, writes Dan Froomkin. “His only ideology is power. And he realizes that maintaining power requires money.” Forget appealing to precedent, history, or separation of powers. “If it doesn’t help Republicans get elected, he’s not interested.” And riling Trump’s base during the impeachment trial won’t help get Republicans elected.
Not even overwhelming public outcry is likely to move Senate Republicans to waver in support of their Leader, nor from helping cover up his crimes. Last night in a Facebook post, historian Rick Perlstein (“Nixonland“) offered a theory for why:
This is a very perilous moment. At the American Historical Association conference a few weeks ago I saw a brilliant paper demonstrating that Germans who left behind evidence during World War II that they knew that killing Jews and committing other war crimes was wrong and against the law were more likely to kill Jews and commit war crimes. This was because (1) they had passed a point of no return, and (2) the motivation became even more frenzied devotion to “winning” as the state defined it, because they realized that if Germany lost, they would be punished–because, again, they knew they were breaking the law. I may not be characterizing the argument exactly right, and, of course, the evils we’re talking about are not quite to that level, but the dynamic, it seems to me, is similar: now that all these Republican “moderates” are on the record advancing what Jerold Nadler correctly call a coverup with their votes again evidence and witnesses, it becomes all the more important for Trumpism to prevail so they never have to face the music for their sins–and they may work with ever greater frenzy to make sure Trumpism never loses. To liberals who think to themselves, “The House managers’ presentation is so airtight and inarguable, surely one of these Republicans will break”: well, the very air-tightness might have the opposite effect. They may commit themselves ever more strongly to the ratchet toward dictatorship. Because if Trump loses, they can now imagine themselves in the figurative dock.
A key difference between Perlstein’s example and ours is Germans had seen punishment after World War I, that is, in recent collective memory. They had reason to fear accountability as a real prospect. Republicans over the last half century, on the other hand, saw Gerald Ford pardon Nixon, Reagan dodge impeachment, and George H.W. Bush pardon six of Reagan’s Iran-Contra co-conspirators.
They saw the administration of George W. Bush lie the country into war and commit war crimes with impunity courtesy, in part, of Barack Obama’s wanting to “look forward,” not back. They witnessed the financial industry bring the world economy to its knees and go unchastened, only to get richer and more powerful courtesy, again, of Barack Obama’s wanting to “look forward,” not back.
Yet, even if they fear no punishment, Republicans may have reached their own “point of no return.”
Meanwhile, half the country has heard “a rising tide lifts all boats” from both parties for forty years yet sees no lift from rising productivity. The rich just get richer, nonwhite people get more numerous, and Trump’s base gets more anxious its accustomed social and political dominance will be lost to the multicultural latter.
Meanwhile, Sen. Elizabeth Warren has pledged if elected to “investigate corruption during the Trump administration and to hold government officials accountable for illegal activity.” That ought to have at least sent shivers up some spines. Because Warren appears to mean it. First she has to get to the White House.
In justifying his Iran-Contra pardons, Bush argued the prosecutions amounted to “the criminalization of policy differences.” Expect to hear that phrase again soon. William Barr sits atop Trump’s Department of Justice just as he did under Bush 41. As things sit now, Republicans and the donor class have little reason to fear punishment.
The rest of us had best get busy giving them reason to.
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
For The Win, 3rd Edition is ready for download. Request a copy of my free countywide election mechanics guide at ForTheWin.us. This is what winning looks like.