The numbers have been adjusted and it looks like the economy has been coasting the whole time. Even his tax cuts did nothing:
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President Donald Trump has always exaggerated the strength of his jobs record, claiming to have brought about an unprecedented hiring boom when, in fact, payrolls have been growing at a somewhat slower pace than they had been during Barack Obama’s final years in office. But it turns out, the reality of it was even weaker than the official data let on.
On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its latest batch of employment numbers, along with its annual benchmark revisions adjusting its estimates from prior months. Before, the government believed that the U.S. had added 223,000 jobs per month in 2018, the year that the GOP’s tax cuts and new, higher spending levels took effect. It has now lowered that estimate to 193,000 per month, a significant drop.
With today’s benchmark revision, there was still a modest increase in payroll growth in 2018 over 2017. The 2019 average was essentially unchanged. Job growth has been remarkably steady for the past four years.
Here’s how this changes the story of the past few years. Based on the old numbers, it looked like Trump had inherited a steady economy but gave hiring a boost in 2018 through some deficit-fueled stimulus. Based on the new numbers, it looks like he inherited a steadily growing economy and didn’t do much at all. Trump’s deficits likely juiced employment growth a bit, while his trade war likely undercut it. (The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes probably muted growth in 2018 a bit too.) In the end, the economy has added fewer jobs in every year of his presidency than it did during Obama’s final one. There never was much of a Trump bump.
I think that people were stunned by the financial crisis and didn’t feel things getting better until quite a while after it happened. Trump got lucky as he has so often in his life.
Look for the economy to tank as soon as he leaves office. It almost makes you wish that he’d be in there to deal with it. Almost.
But it’s not worth it.