Out here in the hinterlands, testing grounds for conservative policies cooked up in places like ALEC (American Legislative Exchange Council), who controls the presidency this time next year could have less impact on our lives than who controls the levers of power at the state and congressional levels.
Slate’s Ben Mathis-Lilley points to several down-ballot races from Massachusetts to Texas to watch in between updates in the presidential primaries Tuesday night. Tomorrow may hold some clues to whether Texas is turning as purple as Democrats hope.
The primary in Texas 28 features a Democratic centrist and a progressive. Incumbent Rep. Henry Cuellar, 64, faces Jessica Cisneros, 26, endorsed by ” not just by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren but also by more conventionally mainstream Democratic groups like EMILY’s List and the Texas AFL-CIO.” There is no real polling in the races to predict where this one will go, Mathis-Lilley writes. Stay tuned.
The Texas Tribune notes that several primaries in the state hold enough candidates to fill an entire ballot. Five Republicans and a dozen Democrats will compete for a shot at Sen. John Cornyn’s seat this fall.
This will be only “the first cut” in many races. At least 24 Democrats “won’t have to get out of bed early Wednesday” after the first round of sorting in seven congressional races.
But even while voters in many Texas districts won’t make their final choices until May runoffs, what makes Texas a state to watch is how Democrats are making moves there:
Republicans are playing defense in Texas this year, working to hold their numbers in the congressional delegation and their majority in the Texas House. For the opposite reasons, Democrats are playing offense, contesting seven congressional seats now held by Republican members of Congress (while defending two they took away from Republicans in 2018) and trying to add nine Democrats in the state House, which would give them a majority. At the same time, the Democrats are defending 12 seats they won in the House in 2018.
For down-ballot candidates — and all of those races come after the noisy presidential race on the ballot — the contestants at the top could decide which voters show up. Another twist while we’re at it: There will be no straight-ticket voting in Texas this year, which could change those up-ballot, down-ballot dynamics. Some voters will slog their way through, voting for the candidates (maybe the parties) of their choice. Some will probably vote in the top race and leave it at that.
Making sure that “undervote” does not happen falls to under-resourced and neglected county party committees off the beaten track. Out in the boonies where the presidential races and gubernatorial races and U.S. Senate races don’t set up shop, Democrats routinely get their clocks cleaned. I have a modest tool (below) for helping them address that. Read a little parable about the “Last Mile” problem here.
UPDATE (h/t M.S.): It’s a line I’ve heard before, Texas is not a red state. It’s a nonvoting state. Poll closings across the state are impeding turnout. Guess where?
The analysis finds that the 50 counties that gained the most Black and Latinx residents between 2012 and 2018 closed 542 polling sites, compared to just 34 closures in the 50 counties that have gained the fewest black and Latinx residents. This is despite the fact that the population in the former group of counties has risen by 2.5 million people, whereas in the latter category the total population has fallen by over 13,000.
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For The Win, 3rd Edition is ready for download. 2,600+ counties contacted, roughly 900 “opens,” over 400 downloads. (It’s a lead-a-horse effort.) Request a copy of my free countywide election mechanics guide at ForTheWin.us. This is what winning looks like.