From Boston College political scientist Dave Hopkins on the subject of Trump’s approval ratings which seem to be improving, as stunningly unbelievable as that may be:
1. Political leaders’ popularity often rises temporarily after the onset of a crisis….But these popularity bumps fade with time.
2. Americans are still learning about the severity and likely duration of this crisis….Citizens who anticipate that the crisis will only last a matter of a few weeks may see little reason at this point to re-evaluate their opinions about the president, but they may start to feel differently if the inconvenience persists for longer than they first assumed.
3. Americans already have strong opinions about Trump, and most of them disliked him before the crisis….The only way that his popularity could fall much further would be for elements of his remaining base—consisting almost entirely of habitual Republican voters—to become disenchanted with his performance, but these citizens are unusually resistant to changing their minds about him….But a steady approval rating could also be a problem, because he’s already in a vulnerable position heading into re-election and is consistently running behind likely opponent Joe Biden in national polls.
4. It’s not the virus, it’s the economy (stupid)….It wouldn’t be surprising if Trump’s popularity remained stable or even rose a bit over the next few weeks during (presumably) the strictest anti-COVID remediation measures, only to decline later in the year once the larger consequences, especially declining income and employment, became more visible to average citizens.
Just a reminder that Bush’s approval ratings went to 90% after 9/11 and we aren’t seeing anything like that now. The latest has 54% of the public approving his coronavirus response. But his overall approval rating isn’t above 45%.
And after Katrina, his approval rating sat around 43%, slightly dipped temporarily and didn’t nosedive until several months later.
We have an election in 8 months. I wouldn’t hazard a guess as to where his approvals will be then. But if there’s any sanity left in this world it’s not going to be very good. He is making things worse every single day.