The NY Times’ David Leonhardt points out a troubling bit of data:
If you’ve been following the charts showing the number of new coronavirus cases in the United States each day, you may have noticed a worrisome pattern in the last few days.
The number of new cases appears to have peaked about a week and a half ago. But the decline since then has been very modest. There are still about 30,000 Americans being diagnosed each day. The seven-day moving average of new cases — a measure that smooths out daily fluctuations — has declined only 2 percent since it peaked 11 days ago.
As you can see in the chart above, that’s not typical. In other countries, the number of new cases has usually declined much more sharply after peaking.
As you can see in the chart above, that’s not typical. In other countries, the number of new cases has usually declined much more sharply after peaking.
Why? It’s impossible to know for certain with a virus as complex and unknown as this one. But there is an obvious potential cause: Many political leaders in the United States, including President Trump, are not following the advice of public health experts.
Those experts have urged a range of measures: continued social distancing until the number of cases falls further; a rapid expansion of virus testing; and planning an extensive program of “contact tracing” and quarantining, to allow for gradual reopening. The United States is taking some of these steps, but only some.
Maybe we haven’t actually peaked?
There’s a lot of speculation that the model the “task force” is primarily using may be wrong. If you are interested in going down a rabbit hole to take a look at that, here’s a twitter thread on it: