Voting in Wisconsin on Tuesday was down overall compared to the primary contest in 2016. But participation in statewide and local elections surged to over 1.5 million. While the COVID-19 pandemic depressed voting in person, voting by mail more than compensated (PBS):
Overall, nearly 1.1 million voters mailed in absentee ballots out of a total 1.5 million votes cast, according to state election data — a major increase from previous elections and a record for Wisconsin. The state has not yet released more detailed statistics for absentee ballots, but it was clear from the initial returns that in-person voting was down across the state.
Many voters who did not vote by mail were undeterred by the novel coronavirus pandemic. They stood in long lines at the polls for hours (many wearing masks for protection). How many were asked to remove them at check-in and expose themselves (and poll workers) to additional health risk to satisfy the state’s photo ID law is unknown.
It is clear, however, that demand for voting by mail (where permitted) will increase for this November’s election. Two Democratic lawmakers with oversight of the United States Postal Service (USPS) warn that plummeting mail volumes amid the pandemic leave the service “in need of urgent help” or USPS “could be forced to cease operations as early as June.” *
So far, the same Congress willing to bail out struggling airlines and cruise ship companies registered in other countries has yet to provide sufficient financial support to a constitutionally provided service essential to conducting, not just normal business and commerce, but a safe election during a pandemic. The Brennan Center estimates the cost to conduct a free and fair election under pandemic conditions could cost $2 billion. To date, Congress has approved only $400 million.
Eric Levitz notes USPS enjoys a 90 percent approval rating while trust in other public institutions has collapsed. He explains the acting president is a major stumblingblock:
Congressional Democrats would like to help the Postal Service through this troubled time by providing it with a federal bailout. The Trump administration would like to use the agency’s financial crisis to both force through cuts to postal workers’ compensation and (for God knows what reason) screw over its own rural base by allowing the agency to charge low-density parts of the country higher rates. The president, meanwhile, ostensibly wants the USPS to bilk Jeff Bezos until he stops funding journalism critical of Republicans (this might be sound policy for punishing Trump’s personal enemies, but it would not actually solve the Postal Service’s funding woes).
Rick Hasen adds at Slate:
But whether or not Congress acts, mail-in ballots will naturally be more in demand for the general election if the pandemic continues to affect daily life. Five states already conduct elections mostly by mail. They are among the two-thirds of states, including many of the swing states, offering any voter who wishes to vote by mail to do so. These states are going to be inundated with absentee ballots, as evidenced by the explosion in absentee ballot requests that flooded into Wisconsin during its recent primary. With 175 of 180 polling stations closed in Milwaukee last week, voters faced the choice of voting absentee, waiting in long lines and risking their health, or simply not voting. We know what these voters will do in November if they have the choice.
Hasen continues:
It is hard to imagine how we could have a successful election without a functional USPS. Even with the postal service running, a number of voters in the Wisconsin primary were disenfranchised because absentee ballots couldn’t get to voters in time and the United States Supreme Court reversed a lower court order extending the time for voters to return them. Many of us were rightly worried by the 10,000 voters disenfranchised by these deadlines in Wisconsin. Now, without a massive infusion of cash, USPS expects to be “financially liquidated” by Sept. 30—right as the election season is gearing up. While it’s unlikely that the mail would entirely stop being delivered, massive service disruptions, delays, and confusion would make the election even more chaotic.
Vote-by-mail, while proven safe and secure, is not for every voter, Hasen admits, but will see more demand this year than ever.
But it is not without USPS-related hitches. Mailed ballots go uncounted for a variety of reasons. During the March 3 primary here, dozens of absentee-by-mail ballots went uncounted. Nearly a dozen mailed in late February arrived well after the March 6 delivery deadline. (Cost-cutting closed the local postal sorting center; local mail goes to South Carolina now before coming right back here.) Nearly two dozen ballots mailed on or just before March 3 arrived too late to be counted. Nearly three dozen arrived late with no postmark indicating the date of mailing. Less than 0.1 percent of the total ballots cast is only small unless it is yours that goes uncounted.
* Before my in-box is flooded with missives on the postal service’s Congress-induced financial struggles, reference recent Forbes columns by Elizabeth Bauer. The USPS story is too complex to tell in a headline.
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For The Win, 3rd Edition is ready for download. Request a copy of my free countywide election mechanics guide at ForTheWin.us. This is what winning looks like.
Note: The pandemic will upend standard field tactics in 2020. If enough promising “improvisations” come my way by June, perhaps I can issue a COVID-19 supplement.