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Month: April 2020

The metrics are all in his head

Aaron Rupar at Vox notes one of the most frightening things Donald Trump has ever said:

Asked by NBC’s Peter Alexander how he could possibly know that the coronavirus “will soon be in full retreat” without widespread testing, Trump said he’ll know because “people aren’t going to go to the hospital, people aren’t going to get sick.”

“You’re gonna see nobody’s gonna be getting sick anymore,” Trump continued. “It will be gone and it won’t be that much longer.”

What Trump overlooked, however, is that the coronavirus can be spread by people without symptoms. So merely testing people who are already sick will not be sufficient to stop the spread. Those who have come into contact with others who have tested positive will also need to be tested to make sure they aren’t unwittingly spreading the virus.

Public health experts understand this. As my colleague German Lopez detailed, new plans about what comes after the current period of stringent social distancing put together by the left-leaning Center for American Progress and right-leaning American Enterprise Institute both emphasize that “widespread testing will let public health officials detect and subsequently contain any future outbreaks before everything has to be locked down.” But the US is currently only completing about 130,000 tests per day on average — a far cry from the 500,000 or so experts agree will be necessary to contain the coronavirus until a vaccine is available.

But with the virus having already spread to all 50 states, widespread testing will be needed to prevent future outbreaks from spiraling out of control. His comments also omit that, as New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) said earlier Friday, more testing capacity will be needed to get New York’s economy back up and running. Cuomo suggested that Trump should use the Defense Production Act to compel private companies to manufacture test kits.

Trump’s misguided comments about testing on Friday came one day after he categorically denied the necessity of a nationwide testing system.

“We have a great testing system. Right now, we have the best testing system in the world,” Trump said, ignoring that the US is still testing far fewer people per capita than countries that are having more success fighting the coronavirus, like South Korea and Japan.

The irony of all this is that nobody is pushing harder to relax social distancing than Trump, who faces a tough reelection fight this year that will be made more difficult unless the wreckage of the economy is put back together relatively quickly. In fact, Trump closed his briefing on Friday by insisting that “we have to get back to work. We have to get our country open.”

Trump closes with this: “We have to get back to work. We have to get our country open. But we could have lost 2 million people … so I’m very honored by our decisions, all of us … I have a big decision coming up. And I only hope to God that’s it’s the right decision.”

Public health experts widely agree that more robust coronavirus testing is the quickest means to that end. Trump not only doesn’t get that, but he is actively working at cross purposes: The federal government ended funding for local coronavirus testing sites on Friday. And when Trump was asked by CNN’s Jim Acosta on Friday about officials like Cuomo who say that more testing capacity is needed, Trump went on the attack, admonishing Acosta that “you shouldn’t be asking that kind of a question … it is very insulting to a lot of great people.”

Trump, however, seems resolved to plow forward with trying to restore the economy even in the absence of more testing. Asked on Friday what metrics he’ll use to decide when to relax social distancing, Trump pointed to his head and said, “the metric is right here. That’s my metrics. That’s all I can do.”

I urge you to read this piece by Ezra Klein, also at Vox, which looks at the re-opening plans we’ve seen so far from various experts. Have a couple of shots of whiskey handy. You’re going to need them. Even if we didn’t have an unhinged ignoramus at the helm this would be a very difficult undertaking. With Donald Trump running things, it’s guaranteed to be a nightmare.

Don’t Let Trump Set The Metric For His Pandemic Success @spockosbrain

Trump wants to measure how he’s doing on this pandemic based on the numbers he chooses. To counter this we must use metrics that come from doctors not Nielsen. Then we frame Trump’s chosen numbers with numbers that show his failures.

April 09 TV Ratings from 11 wide Template

Trump has always picked the numbers he wants to measure his success. First he wanted it to be inauguration attendees. The media pushed back Sean Spicer so hard he had to go on Dancing With The Stars for not being a good enough liar. Next Trump used numbers the media couldn’t deny, like the electoral college vote. When the stock market was up it was tweet, tweet, tweet! When unemployment was down? He bragged about it in every rally, especially in a category that he was weak in–African American support.

Thursday he picked a number he believes shows he is winning the fight against the coronavirus. TV ratings. I’m not going to let him, so I’ve physically–and linguistically–started framed the metric he chose with one the people care about.

  1. Picking a number you are a leader in is a classic technique used by marketing and PR people for decades.
  2. Find a category you are winning in.
  3. Show how your product is winning–as compared to others that YOU select.
  4. Find an organization/company that shows that your product is winning in that category. If you can’t find a company that shows your product leading the category you picked, commission a company to prove it.(Some market research
  5. firms are good for this, especially those that let you pick the questions & audience.)
  6. Get those winning numbers to the media so THEY repeat them. “Research Group says, Product T is the winner in X, Y & Z!!”
  7. Repeat the headline from media stories that use Research Group numbers–because most people only read headlines.

Trump regularly uses this technique and changes his metric when it suits him. Friday he was bragging about the market going up again.

April 10 bigger fontspng

So how do we combat this?

  1. Determine what SHOULD be the measurement of success or failure from people and institutions we trust. .
  2. For example go to CDC to count the spread and the dead. Back it up with supporting data as it comes in. Use data that people need to know now and in the future. What’s the percent tested in a community vs. total numbers?
  3.  Get those numbers to the media. Use them regularly and consistantly. Keep updating charts and graphs.
  4. Break out what the numbers mean and give context. Because Trump will claim credit for what was done by others it’s important to show who did what when, both good and bad.
  5. Detail what Trump’s failures and successes mean. For example, he’s always bragging about the travel restrictions from China. It started January 31 but It was ONLY for Chinese nationals. He says it so often with out caveats people think it was great.

To remind everyone how weak those restrictions were we must keep inserting numbers that put his brag numbers in context. For example, every time he brags about the China travel ban a pop up should say:

40,000 Americans and other authorized travelers came IN FROM CHINA following the travel restrictions.

  • Most passengers arrived in January at airports in San Francisco, New York, Los Angeles, Seattle, Newark, Chicago and Detroit.
  • “Thousands of them flew directly from Wuhan,” the original epicenter of the COVID-19 outbreak”If passengers are screened and show no symptoms they will be re-booked to their final destination and asked to “self-quarantine” inside their home, DHS says. “Once back in the U.S., it’s imperative that individuals honor self-quarantine directives to help protect the American public,” DHS acting Secretary Chad Wolf  said in a statement. NY Times

April 11 China trump tweetTemplate

Why did the death rates not go up as quickly in California as other locations? How much of that was because of the actions of city mayors and Governor Newsom?  What else is a factor? These all need to be measured to compare with other states and put into a national context. What’s the number of dead vs alive because of Trump? We can figure out those numbers.

Can we force the White House to do this? The media will always first deal with the White House’s chosen number (that’s if the White House puts out numbers at all).But we can’t just wait for the White House to put out the numbers the people want to know and care about.

On Friday Rachel Maddow talked about the numbers the administration wasn’t counting and put out some some of their own charts and graphs. It’s a good start.

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But we need more. There needs to be simple charts and ways to show the data that reaches everyone, and that’s difficult, especially people who are in the Fox News media bubble. We need to get through to the people in the 8 states who don’t have state-wide stay at home orders (shown in white).

Trump makes up some numbers and willfully misinterprets others. We know this and have been dealing with this, but the President also has people whose JOB it is to support misleading numbers. He has an entire media arm that will create a narrative to support his bogus numbers and downplay the important ones.

But some numbers are very powerful. Who died and who lived? Who is responsible? These might even get through to Fox News. But they get through to the rest of us. We need to help get the message out.

I can’t believe I have to say this, but the reality is we have to make it clear to the right wing media and the GOP that all human lives matter. Even theirs.

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From Fox News’ Heart I Stab at Thee

It’s hard to keep up with all stories of Donald Trump showing he’s unfit for office, whether due to incompetence, idiocy, corruption, nepotism, trying to out-crazy Onion stories, or some deadly mix. That extends to his decision to put his equally incompetent son-in-law, Jared Kushner, in charge of key portions of the pandemic response, when the unqualified dolt shouldn’t be running anything. Digby’s covered most of this stuff already, but several stories over the past couple of weeks have particularly stuck with me.

The Disaster I Caused Is All Over the News

On 3/29/20, Trump went on a crazier-than-usual bragging stint about how great the “ratings” were for the pandemic briefings, taunted the media, and bragged about how Republicans didn’t trust the news:

Trump tweets about ratings

Even for Trump, this is astounding. People are dying, and in alarming numbers, but Trump only cares about his ratings and “beating” his chosen foes. And as covered in more depth in a previous post, Trump bears significant responsibility for how bad the COVID-19 pandemic is in the United States by downplaying the coronavirus threat for months, dismantling or trying to underfund the agencies built to fight pandemics, lying and giving misinformation constantly, failing to coordinate national efforts and often actively interfering with those trying to bring some competency to bear on the crisis, and cheering on the reality-denying habits of his adoring, authoritarian followers. COVID-19 was going to be a grave challenge no matter who was in charge, but Trump’s incompetence has been disastrous.

I’ll leave formal diagnoses to mental health professionals, but in general layperson terms, Trump is a narcissist, a megalomaniac, a sociopath, and a soulless, cruel, self-absorbed asshole. Trump is like an imbecilic Captain Ahab – obsessive and prone to reckless decisions that endanger those he is supposed to lead, but without any redeeming qualities like, oh, basic knowledge of his chosen profession. As covered in that previous post, Trump cares much, much more about public adulation than human lives. He will sink and doom everyone around him, and unfortunately, he can adversely affect most of the country (and interfere with other nations as well). Yet most Republican politicians and voters don’t care, and many continue to cheer him on, perhaps most of all the professional dissemblers and sycophants at Fox News.

I’m Not a Doctor or Expert and I Can’t Play One on TV, Either

Trump seems extremely fond of his son-in-law Jared Kushner, perhaps because, like Trump, he’s an incompetent rich kid who’s advanced mostly if not entirely due to his family connections. Both of them frequently sound like the kid who didn’t read the book trying to bullshit his way through a presentation. Reportedly, Trump has heeded Kushner for some of Trump’s most idiotic and dangerous statements, and for some reason, Trump gave Kushner (or allowed Kushner to take) a key role in shaping the already-chaotic White House’s pandemic response – a “senior official described the Kushner team as a “frat party” that descended from a U.F.O. and invaded the federal government.” Kushner quickly showed how out of his depth he was when, on 4/2/20, he complained petulantly and incorrectly to reporters about the Strategic National Stockpile:

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The notion of the federal stockpile was, it’s supposed to be our stockpile. It’s not supposed to be states’ stockpiles that they then use.

This is the answer of a high school student who’s completely failed basic civics. Who does Kushner think the Strategic National Stockpile is for? Obviously it should be used to help U.S. citizens, who live in, what are they called, oh yeah… states. He was justifiably savaged for this dangerously ignorant response. It’s hard to guess what Kushner was even thinking. Maybe he meant that he thought that the Strategic National Stockpile was for him and Trump to dispense to their pals as political favors like cut-rate Mafioso wannabes and, like Trump, he was dumb enough to say the quiet parts out loud? Or does that give him too much credit for actual thought? Why is someone with so little basic knowledge of an essential job during a major crisis being given power? Coordinating a response to a deadly pandemic is not a nepotistic patronage gig – it requires actual experience and competence.

Predictably, Trump lashed out at a reporter for asking about Kushner’s inaccurate remarks and gave a nonsensical defense. And Trump has made similarly ludicrous claims that individual states are responsible for their own disaster relief and the federal government is supposed to serve only as a backup – “We’re a backup. We’re not an ordering clerk” – which isn’t true and makes little sense. Trump also clearly doesn’t actually believe that, otherwise he wouldn’t keep stealing supply orders from the states. As usual, Trump is asserting both that he can do whatever he wants but that he’s not responsible for the consequences.

On top of that, as was widely reported, the Trump administration made the Orwellian move of changing the stockpile website description to better match Kushner’s incorrect remarks. It bears remembering that one of Trump’s first actions as president was directing his then-press secretary Sean Spicier to yell at reporters for not accepting obvious, Trump-flattering lies about the crowd size at Trump’s inauguration, which was clearly much smaller than Obama’s. Apparently, Trump, who believes whatever reality suits him in that particular moment and expects everyone around him to kiss his ass, also expects the same treatment for his idiot son-in-law.

Michelle Goldberg summed up the concerns about Kushner nicely in a 4/2/20 column titled, “Putting Jared Kushner In Charge Is Utter Madness” (originally titled “Jared Kushner Is Going to Get Us All Killed”):

Reporting on the White House’s herky-jerky coronavirus response, Vanity Fair’s Gabriel Sherman has a quotation from Jared Kushner that should make all Americans, and particularly all New Yorkers, dizzy with terror.

According to Sherman, when New York’s governor, Andrew Cuomo, said that the state would need 30,000 ventilators at the apex of the coronavirus outbreak, Kushner decided that Cuomo was being alarmist. “I have all this data about I.C.U. capacity,” Kushner reportedly said. “I’m doing my own projections, and I’ve gotten a lot smarter about this. New York doesn’t need all the ventilators.” (Dr. Anthony Fauci, the country’s top expert on infectious diseases, has said he trusts Cuomo’s estimate.)

Even now, it’s hard to believe that someone with as little expertise as Kushner could be so arrogant, but he said something similar on Thursday, when he made his debut at the White House’s daily coronavirus briefing: “People who have requests for different products and supplies, a lot of them are doing it based on projections which are not the realistic projections.” . . .

The journalist Andrea Bernstein looked closely at Kushner’s business record for her recent book “American Oligarchs: The Kushners, the Trumps, and the Marriage of Money and Power,” speaking to people on all sides of his real estate deals as well as those who worked with him at The New York Observer, the weekly newspaper he bought in 2006.

Kushner, Bernstein told me, “really sees himself as a disrupter.” Again and again, she said, people who’d dealt with Kushner told her that whatever he did, he “believed he could do it better than anybody else, and he had supreme confidence in his own abilities and his own judgment even when he didn’t know what he was talking about.”

It’s hard to overstate the extent to which this confidence is unearned. Kushner was a reportedly mediocre student whose billionaire father appears to have bought him a place at Harvard. Taking over the family real estate company after his father was sent to prison, Kushner paid $1.8 billion — a record, at the time — for a Manhattan skyscraper at the very top of the real estate market in 2007. The debt from that project became a crushing burden for the family business. (Kushner was able to restructure the debt in 2011, and in 2018 the project was bailed out by a Canadian asset management company with links to the government of Qatar.) He gutted the once-great New York Observer, then made a failed attempt to create a national network of local politics websites.

No wonder Trump likes Kushner – he’s his spitting image, inept and arrogant. As The Washington Post has reported, “The U.S. was beset by denial and dysfunction as the coronavirus raged.” The article features several chilling passages, including this:

Other officials have emerged during the crisis to help right the United States’ course, and at times, the statements of the president. But even as Fauci, Azar and others sought to assert themselves, Trump was behind the scenes turning to others with no credentials, experience or discernible insight in navigating a pandemic.

Foremost among them was his adviser and son-in-law, Jared Kushner. A team reporting to Kushner commandeered space on the seventh floor of the HHS building to pursue a series of inchoate initiatives. . . .

This isn’t a game – Kushner’s heavy involvement has pushed out more competent leadership, and like Trump, he appears to be actively interfering with positive efforts to mitigate the pandemic crisis. As covered by Vanity Fair‘s article, “Lawmakers Want to Know: WTF Is Jared Kushner Doing?,” congressional Democrats have pressed the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to explain why supplies to the states have been delayed or hijacked by the Trump administration and what Kusher’s role is. (” ‘It would be like high school cafeteria drama if it weren’t life or death,’ political consultant Jared Leopold, the former communications director for the Democratic Governors Association, told the [New York] Times.”) The buck should stop with Trump, not that he will ever accept responsibility. As The Washington Post piece sums up:

If the coronavirus has exposed the country’s misplaced confidence in its ability to handle a crisis, it also has cast harsh light on the limits of Trump’s approach to the presidency — his disdain for facts, science and experience.

He has survived other challenges to his presidency — including the Russia investigation and impeachment — by fiercely contesting the facts arrayed against him and trying to control the public’s understanding of events with streams of falsehoods.

The coronavirus may be the first crisis Trump has faced in office where the facts — the thousands of mounting deaths and infections — are so devastatingly evident that they defy these tactics.

More Lunacy

What else? Well, where to begin?

Protective gear in the national stockpile is nearly depleted. FEMA is not operating well; Rear Admiral John Polowczyk, the FEMA supply chain task force lead, has made remarks that suggest the U.S. is flying in supplies but then giving them to private companies and letting the states bid on them competitively, which has driven up prices. That’s an unnecessarily bad system, and “some governors and critics say the White House distribution approach of mixing federal and state entities with private health care companies continues to create confusion, anger and state bidding wars that waste time and money.” Adding to the mess, only 3,200 of the 100,000 new coronavirus ventilators FEMA is sourcing will be ready in time for the peak of the pandemic. Meanwhile, the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA), a Department of Defense agency that is well-positioned to handle supply chain issues, is not being used. Even some Republicans have criticized Defense Secretary Mark Esper for a lack of leadership. Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer asked Trump to appoint a military czar to coordinate supplies and suggested some candidates, but Trump defended his current team and immaturely made personal attacks against Schumer. (No crisis is ever more important than Trump’s wounded ego.) A recent New Yorker article by Susan B. Glasser asks and answers, “How Did the U.S. End Up with Nurses Wearing Garbage Bags?” It starts with Eric Ries, a Silicon Valley CEO approached by the White House to help with the pandemic response:

What [Ries and others] did not foresee was that the federal government might never come to the rescue. They did not realize this was a government failure by design—not a problem to be fixed but a policy choice by President Trump that either would not or could not be undone. “No one can believe it. That’s the No. 1 problem with the whole situation: the facts are known, but they are inconceivable,” Ries told me. “So we are just in denial.”

Independent reporting has corroborated what Ries and other volunteers saw for themselves: “a fragmented procurement system now descending into chaos,” as the Associated Press put it. The news agency found that not a single shipment of medical-grade N95 masks arrived at U.S. ports during the month of March. The federal government was not only disorganized; it was absent. Federal agencies waited until mid-March to begin placing bulk orders for the urgently needed supplies, the A.P. found. The first large U.S. government order to the big U.S. producer 3M, for a hundred and seventy-three million dollars’ worth of N95 masks, was not placed until March 21st—the same day that Ries got his first phone call about the Kushner effort. The order, according to the A.P., did not even require the supplies to be delivered until the end of April, far too late to help with the thousands of cases already overwhelming hospitals.

(The Glasser article is disturbing and should be read in full; you’ll be shocked to learn that Trump attacked government officials who reported problems and accused them of being politically motived. As Glasser summarizes, “There was a window for action. It wasn’t just closed. It was slammed shut.)

Meanwhile, Trump keeps shilling the malaria drug, hydroxychloroquine, astonishingly telling people to try it, because “What have you got to lose?” Although hydroxychloroquine is being tested, its efficacy for COVID-19 remains unproven, and obviously Trump should not be dispensing medical advice or silencing Dr. Fauci, an actual expert, as Trump did when a reporter tried to ask Fauci about the drug. To be fair, hydroxychloroquine has actual value for malaria treatment and might have other uses, but Trump isn’t making his statements based on facts, careful thought, or expert advice, and simply doesn’t care about such things, including the potentially dangerous side effects of the medication. Even if hydroxychloroquine proves to be a wonder drug, what Trump is doing should be seen as part of a long conservative tradition of shilling snake oil. Meanwhile, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) revised some guidance from its website about hydroxychloroquine and other drugs for COVID-19 on its website. The earlier, pro-hydroxychloroquine “was crafted for doctors at the request of a White House coronavirus task force, which had urged prompt action.” So unlike the Strategic National Stockpile website change, the CDC site became more accurate, but in both cases, the Trump administration interfered with a government agency and peddled misinformation for political purposes.

If that weren’t enough, Trump recently fired inspector general Glenn Fine, who was the chairman of the panel that would have overseen the $2 trillion stimulus package. As The Washington Post reports, “In just the past four days, Trump has ousted two inspectors general and expressed displeasure with a third, a pattern that critics say is a direct assault on one of the pillars of good governance.” Nancy Pelosi called Trump’s actions “part of a disturbing pattern of retaliation by the president against independent overseers fulfilling their statutory and patriotic duties to conduct oversight on behalf of the American people.” The other inspector general Trump fired was Michael Atkinson, apparently in retaliation for heeding the whistleblower in Trump’s Ukraine scandal. In a statement, Atkinson wrote, “The American people deserve an honest and effective government. . . . Please do not allow recent events to silence your voices.” Atkinson’s firing continues a pattern of retaliation by the obsessive Trump, and congressional Democrats are “seeking legislative proposals that could restrict Trump’s ability to remove or demote inspectors general for political reasons.” It’s important to remember that the Trump administration isn’t just incompetent; it’s deeply corrupt.

The Trump administration’s incompetence is so staggering, so jaw-dropping, it would have been rejected as implausible in fiction not long ago. Science fiction author Ted Chiang observed:

While there has been plenty of fiction written about pandemics, I think the biggest difference between those scenarios and our reality is how poorly our government has handled it. If your goal is to dramatize the threat posed by an unknown virus, there’s no advantage in depicting the officials responding as incompetent, because that minimizes the threat; it leads the reader to conclude that the virus wouldn’t be dangerous if competent people were on the job. A pandemic story like that would be similar to what’s known as an “idiot plot,” a plot that would be resolved very quickly if your protagonist weren’t an idiot. What we’re living through is only partly a disaster novel; it’s also—and perhaps mostly—a grotesque political satire.

Scott Z. Burns, the screenwriter for the quite good movie Contagion (2011), made similar observations:

I never contemplated a federal response that was so ignorant, misguided and full of dangerous information. I thought our leaders were sworn to protect us. . . .

I would have never imagined that the movie needed a “bad guy” beyond the virus itself. It seems pretty basic that the plot should be humans united against the virus. If you were writing it now, you would have to take into account the blunders of a dishonest president and the political party that supports him. But any good studio executive would have probably told us that such a character was unbelievable and made the script more of a dark comedy than a thriller. . . .

The virus doesn’t care what TV network you watch or newspaper you read. We now have more sick people in this country than anywhere else in the world. And even with a three-month head start, we find ourselves scrambling to provide protective gear for our doctors and tests for our neighbors. That is not the fault of the virus. That is something everyone who called it a hoax has to answer for. . . .

I never thought in a million years that the scientists and public health people would be questioned and doubted and defunded and, in many cases, dismissed from their posts. That was something as a screenwriter and storyteller I would have never anticipated, because the threat is so obvious.

The problems aren’t limited to the Trump administration, either. Wisconsin governor Tony Evers, a Democrat, tried to delay the 4/7/20 state primary and expand voting-by-mail due to increased COVID-19 concerns, but was blocked by state Republicans, a Republican-controlled state supreme court, and the Republican-controlled U.S. Supreme Court. As Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who wrote the dissenting opinion said, “the court’s order, I fear, will result in massive disenfranchisement.” Voter suppression is a diabolical conservative tradition, and it’s been noticeably bad in Wisconsin for several years at least. These latest voter suppression efforts by Republicans were mainly to try to keep control of the state supreme court. The scene on election day was appalling, with voters unnecessarily endangered, especially due to moves like reducing Milwaukee’s polling places from 180 to a mere 5; other cities also had reductions, if not as drastic. On top of that, thousands of requested absentee ballots were never delivered. To be fair, some of those issues weren’t due to Republicans, but unfortunately far too many problems in the state are –Republicans keep trying unprincipled power grabs in Wisconsin. (Nor has it been the only state so afflicted, unfortunately.) The insanity and hypocrisy of the Republican position was perfectly captured by Republican Wisconsin State Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, dressed in protective mask, gown, and gloves, telling voters, “You are incredibly safe to go out.”

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We could keep going; the crazy and disturbing news keeps coming. But what do we know from all this?

As the saying goes, conservatives say government doesn’t work, and when in charge, they set out to prove it. As Digby has often pointed out, incompetence is a feature, not a bug, of corruption.

Conservatives want their chosen political foes to die.

Conservatives don’t care if their own constituents and supporters die.

Conservatives don’t care that they are risking death and great harm themselves.

So what do we do now?

Ideally, Republicans would not have voted for Trump. Ideally, congressional Republicans would have voted to impeach and convict Trump to remove him from office.

Congressional Republicans could still do the right thing and ask for a new vote. The House and Senate could vote unanimously to impeach and remove Trump. (But that ain’t gonna happen.)

Trump’s cabinet could also invoke the 25th Amendment and remove him from office. (But that’s extremely unlikely, too.)

Trump and many other conservatives and Republicans can be voted out of office in November. But registering people to vote and making sure they actually can vote is essential – Trump’s admitted several times that greater turnout and making voting easier would hurt Republicans – “You’d never have a Republican elected in this country again.” (Shades of Paul Weyrich.) Trump, ever shameless and incoherent, has also simultaneously argued without evidence that voting by mail is corrupt and defended voting by mail himself. Voter suppression is a serious issue for the general election.

Meanwhile, considerable harm can be done to the American populace by horrible governance before a new administration could take office, should one be elected. Residents of states with sane governors and decent resources can count themselves lucky; that’s mostly been Democratic governors but fortunately some Republican ones as well. So far, the worst responses have been from conservative Republican governors, especially in the South.

Governors could bypass the Trump administration as much as possible, make deals to benefit their states and coordinate among themselves. Some of them are already doing this. Oregon is lending 140 ventilators to New York. California was reportedly lending 500 ventilators to the Strategic National Stockpile, and in theory they’re being shipped to four states and two territories. Given the chronic corruption and incompetence of the Trump administration, however, it may prove wiser for state leadership to manage such transactions directly unless trustworthy federal leadership emerges.

Sadly, that seems unlikely. Good federal leadership coordinating a national response, purchasing supplies and distributing them to the states, would be invaluable and could significantly reduce unnecessary death and suffering. Letting experts and other qualified people lead the way would help immensely, and should be a no-brainer. But the Trump White House is drowning in incompetence and threatens to sink America with it. We need national leaders who work to serve their fellow citizens rather than elevating the inept, acting on whims or pursuing personal obsessions.

Towards thee I roll, thou all-destroying but unconquering whale; to the last I grapple with thee; from hell’s heart I stab at thee; for hate’s sake I spit my last breath at thee. Sink all coffins and all hearses to one common pool! and since neither can be mine, let me then tow to pieces, while still chasing thee, though tied to thee, thou damned whale! Thus, I give up the spear!

– Captain Ahab in Moby Dick

“There was a lot of pushback about shutting things down back then”

CNN reports:

Dr. Anthony Fauci said Sunday that calls to implement life-saving social distancing measures faced “a lot of pushback” early in the US coronavirus outbreak and that the country is now looking for ways to more effectively respond to the virus should it rebound in the fall.

“I mean, obviously, you could logically say that if you had a process that was ongoing and you started mitigation earlier, you could have saved lives,” Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, told CNN’s Jake Tapper on “State of the Union” when asked if social distancing and stay-at-home measures could have prevented deaths had they been put in place in February, instead of mid-March.

“Obviously, no one is going to deny that. But what goes into those decisions is complicated,” added Fauci, who is a key member of the Trump administration’s coronavirus task force. “But you’re right, I mean, obviously, if we had right from the very beginning shut everything down, it may have been a little bit different. But there was a lot of pushback about shutting things down back then.”

The comments from Fauci come a day after a report from The New York Times detailed the Trump administration’s missteps in the early days of the pandemic and how President Donald Trump ignored his advisers’ warnings of the potentially deadly disease

Golly, I wonder who was pushing back? Oh wait. We know who it was, don’t we?

Donald Trump, of all people, gets no benefit of the doubt. He’s been a disaster from the moment he came down that escalator in 2015. His administration has been chaotic and dysfunctional in every way. We were all holding our breath hoping that we somehow got through this term without a major crisis . We almost made it.

Oh, and by the way, he’s still lying:

“We’re in great shape with ventilators,” Trump said on Friday. “We’re in great shape with protective clothing. We have additional plane loads coming in but we’re not getting any calls from governors at this moment… We’re getting very few calls from governors or anybody else.”

“I get calls from governors every single day,” Hogan replied. “We’ve had 12 calls now with every single governor in America, eight of which the president and/or vice president was on the call with us.”

“I had a call with the FEMA administrator just yesterday afternoon,” he continued. “I know there’s people in Washington working very hard to help the states but I think to say that everybody is completely happy and we have everything we need is not quite accurate.”

“I mean, everybody still has tremendous needs on personal protective equipment and ventilators and all of these things that you keep hearing about,” Hogan added.

The stories about how the Trump administration delayed the response in the early days of the pandemic are very important. Trump’s narcissism and ignorance cost lives. But we can’t forget that he’s still doing it!

He’s lying every day as he has since he started his campaign (probably since he was a child.) Now it’s costing American lives in communities all over the country.

The pilot’s intuition

This exchange from public health experts featured in the blockbuster NY Times piece about Trump mismanagement of the crisis is just devastating:

“Pilots can tell you what happens when a crew makes decisions based on intuition rather than what their instruments are telling them. And we continue to push the stick forward …”

Unfortunately, the “pilot” is Donald Trump, a deranged man with no training who can’t read the instruments anyway, who took over the plane and refused to listen to the people in the control tower who were trying to talk him through it.

They keep saying he’s relying on “intuition.” He is not. He has no “intuition” about running the country in the best of times but in a crisis, it’s clear that he’s simply flipping a coin or making decisions based upon magical thinking. That’s not intuition. It’s flying blind and hoping your luck would hold out.

The economy has no clothes

Still image from John Carpenter’s They Live (1988).

Something a college friend from South Carolina said I’ll never forget. She got her master’s at NYU and lived in Brooklyn for a stretch in the early 1980’s. She said she learned to navigate the city, learned where to go and where not to. But when she rode the subway each day packed in with hundreds of strangers at rush hour, she said, “I knew I was different.” She said, “I knew … I didn’t have to live this way.”

We are all having similar experiences now. At least, those of us who don’t have to worry about losing everything we were struggling to pay for when the COVID-19 nightmare began.

 Writer/director Julio Vincent Gambuto invites us to consider what months of social distancing and staying home from work reveals about the madness of living the way we have. The pandemic reveals we don’t have to live lives we have come to accept as “normal.” The COVID-19 deaths and suffering are widespread and horrible. But The Great Pause has revealed that when the treadmill abruptly stops life doesn’t:

What the crisis has given us is a once-in-a-lifetime chance to see ourselves and our country in the plainest of views. At no other time, ever in our lives, have we gotten the opportunity to see what would happen if the world simply stopped. Here it is. We’re in it. Stores are closed. Restaurants are empty. Streets and six-lane highways are barren. Even the planet itself is rattling less (true story). And because it is rarer than rare, it has brought to light all of the beautiful and painful truths of how we live. And that feels weird. Really weird. Because it has… never… happened… before. If we want to create a better country and a better world for our kids, and if we want to make sure we are even sustainable as a nation and as a democracy, we have to pay attention to how we feel right now. I cannot speak for you, but I imagine you feel like I do: devastated, depressed, and heartbroken.

Gambuto warns that the people whose profits depend on us returning to normal as soon as possible will soon gaslight us into believing all this never happened. Feeling devastated, depressed, and heartbroken? They’ve got a product to sell you to fix it. Marketers will spend billions to coax you back into that packed subway. Back onto the pollution-filled freeway. Back into the cube farm. Back into that hazardous workplace. Back into the crowded parking lot of the big-box store. Back into a pattern of consumption in which you are too busy surviving to imagine anything different, anything better. Too busy to question.

What Americanism has built is not all evil, Gambuto allows, but the blessings of metastasized capitalism are cruelly capricious. And the system is far more fragile than advertised:

Brands and their products create millions of jobs. Like people — and most anything in life — there are brands that are responsible and ethical, and there are others that are not. They are all part of a system that keeps us living long and strong. We have lifted more humans out of poverty through the power of economics than any other civilization in history. Yes, without a doubt, Americanism is a force for good. It is not some villainous plot to wreak havoc and destroy the planet and all our souls along with it. I get it, and I agree. But its flaws have been laid bare for all to see. It doesn’t work for everyone. It’s responsible for great destruction. It is so unevenly distributed in its benefit that three men own more wealth than 150 million people. Its intentions have been perverted, and the protection it offers has disappeared. In fact, it’s been brought to its knees by one pangolin.

Brace for an “all-out blitz to make you believe you never saw what you saw.” What “the market wants” is to wipe our memories as if with the wave of a Jedi’s hand or the subliminal marketing of aliens walking among us. This is not the life you’re looking for. Get back on the treadmill. Work yourselves to death. Conform. Consume. Obey.

Even now, the White House is desperate for things to get back to something called normal, for people to get back to work making rich investors richer, for the economy on whose plantations we work to recover by November so Trump can avoid jail for another term. The bombardment is coming, Gambuto warns:

From one citizen to another, I beg of you: Take a deep breath, ignore the deafening noise, and think deeply about what you want to put back into your life. This is our chance to define a new version of normal, a rare and truly sacred (yes, sacred) opportunity to get rid of the bullshit and to only bring back what works for us, what makes our lives richer, what makes our kids happier, what makes us truly proud. We get to Marie Kondo the shit out of it all. We care deeply about one another. That is clear. That can be seen in every supportive Facebook post, in every meal dropped off for a neighbor, in every Zoom birthday party. We are a good people. And as a good people, we want to define — on our own terms — what this country looks like in five, 10, 50 years. This is our chance to do that, the biggest one we have ever gotten. And the best one we’ll ever get.

The economy has no clothes.

[h/t JR]

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For The Win, 3rd Edition is ready for download. Request a copy of my free countywide election mechanics guide at ForTheWin.us. This is what winning looks like.
Note: The pandemic will upend standard field tactics in 2020. If enough promising “improvisations” come my way by June, perhaps I can issue a COVID-19 supplement.

Who needs deliveries during the coronavirus anyway?

I don’t know why Donald Trump hates the Post Office so much but he does. (If I had to guess it’s because it employs a lot of African Americans and is used by Amazon which always makes him mad because Jeff Bezos is a lot richer than he is.)

Whatever the reason his hatred for the Post Office is one of the weirdest of his inexplicable obsessions. So naturally, he stepped in to deny any kind of bailout for the perpetually strained system, even at a time when we all depend on it more than ever:

Through rain, sleet, hail, and even a pandemic, mail carriers serve every address in the United States, but the coronavirus crisis is shaking the foundation of the U.S. Postal Service in new and dire ways.

The Postal Service’s decades-long financial troubles have worsened dramatically as the volume of the kind of mail that pays the agency’s bills ― first-class and marketing mail ― withers during the pandemic. The USPS needs an infusion of money, and President Trump has blocked potential emergency funding for the agency that employs around 600,000 workers, repeating instead the false claim that higher rates for Internet shipping companies Amazon, FedEx and UPS would right the service’s budget.

Trump threatened to veto the $2.2 trillion Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, or Cares Act, if the legislation contained any money directed to bail out the postal agency, according to a senior Trump administration official and a congressional official who, like others in this report, spoke on the condition of anonymity.AD

“We told them very clearly that the president was not going to sign the bill if [money for the Postal Service] was in it,” the Trump administration official said. “I don’t know if we used the v-bomb, but the president was not going to sign it, and we told them that.”

Instead, Sens. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) and Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) added a last minute $10 billion Treasury Department loan to the Cares Act to keep the agency on firmer ground through the spring of 2020, according to a Democratic committee aide.Trump signs $2 trillion coronavirus relief billPresident Trump on March 27 signed into law a $2 trillion stimulus package, considered the largest economic relief in the nation’s history. (Reuters)

Lawmakers originally agreed to a $13 billion direct grant the Postal Service would not have to repay. That effort was blocked by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin who warned such a move could blow up the relief bill. A committee aide said Mnuchin told lawmakers during negotiations: “You can have a loan or you can have nothing at all.”

They want to hand out massive billions to fat cats in the energy sector but this is where they draw the line. Jesus.

It appears that the Trump administration would like to see it completely shut down as a result of this crisis. I guess laying off 600,000 more people would make Trump’s day. They are, after all, “the wrong people.” They approved a $10 billion loan , which still hasn’t been “approved” by the Treasury Department.

The Postal Service projects it will lose $2 billion each month through the coronavirus recession while postal workers maintain the nationwide service of delivering essential mail and parcels, such as prescriptions, food and household necessities.

That work often comes at great personal risk. Nearly 500 postal workers have tested positive for the coronavirus and 462 others are presumptive positives, USPS leaders told lawmakers. Nineteen have died; more than 6,000 are in self-quarantine because of exposure.

Fucking Trump. There is absolutely nothing he won’t do to make life everywhere worse for everyone.

Why Trump likes Birx

One little bit in the big NY Times piece today that caught my eye. This is during the part relaying the chaos and cock-ups involved in Trump’s “open by Easter” nonsense when everyone thought he was going to refuse to extend the guidelines past March 31st:

But in the end, aides said, it was Dr. Deborah L. Birx, the veteran AIDS researcher who had joined the task force, whohelped to persuade Mr. Trump. Soft-spoken and fond of the kind of charts and graphs Mr. Trump prefers, Dr. Birx did not have the rough edges that could irritate the president. He often told people he thought she was elegant.

You want to know why he likes her? She reminds him of his mother.

Amirite?

The wrong messages were being given from the beginning

I thought this Frontline podcast was a good overview of how Trump dropped the ball during those precious early days of the crisis when it would have made a big difference.

Inside the Trump administration’s coronavirus response — and missed opportunities to contain COVID-19 before it was too late. Correspondent Martin Smith speaks with global health experts about warnings to the White House that went unheeded, including a health policy expert who said his 2019 study pointing to the threat of a pandemic was met with silence.

As he investigates how the crisis unfolded in the U.S., Smith finds: “There’s a lot of unknowns as to who dropped the ball and when. It’s clear that at the top, and I mean by that the president, the wrong messages were being given.”

And, by the way, the wrong message continue to be given, day in and day out, when the president insists on holding his daily coronavirus rally and spewing out every nonsensical thought that passes through his mind.

UPDATE:

Oh my dear God. It was way worse than even that. The New York Times has published a huge, damning report that absolutely must be read from beginning to end. An excerpt:

Throughout January, as Mr. Trump repeatedly played down the seriousness of the virus and focused on other issues, an array of figures inside his government — from top White House advisers to experts deep in the cabinet departments and intelligence agencies — identified the threat, sounded alarms and made clear the need for aggressive action.

The president, though, was slow to absorb the scale of the risk and to act accordingly, focusing instead on controlling the message, protecting gains in the economy and batting away warnings from senior officials.

[…]

The shortcomings of Mr. Trump’s performance have played out with remarkable transparency as part of his daily effort to dominate television screens and the national conversation.

But dozens of interviews with current and former officials and a review of emails and other records revealed many previously unreported details and a fuller picture of the roots and extent of his halting response as the deadly virus spread:

The National Security Council office responsible for tracking pandemics received intelligence reports in early January predicting the spread of the virus to the United States, and within weeks was raising options like keeping Americans home from work and shutting down cities the size of Chicago. Mr. Trump would avoid such steps until March.

  • Despite Mr. Trump’s denial weeks later, he was told at the time about a Jan. 29 memo produced by his trade adviser, Peter Navarro, laying out in striking detail the potential risks of a coronavirus pandemic: as many as half a millions deaths and trillions of dollars in economic losses.
  • The health and human services secretary, Alex M. Azar II, directly warned Mr. Trump of the possibility of a pandemic during a call on Jan. 30, the second warning he delivered to the president about the virus in two weeks. The president, who was on Air Force One while traveling for appearances in the Midwest, responded that Mr. Azar was being alarmist.
  • Mr. Azar publicly announced in February that the government was establishing a “surveillance” system in five American cities to measure the spread of the virus and enable experts to project the next hot spots. It was delayed for weeks. The slow start of that plan, on top of the well-documented failures to develop the nation’s testing capacity, left administration officials with almost no insight into how rapidly the virus was spreading. “We were flying the plane with no instruments,” one official said.
  • By the third week in February, the administration’s top public health experts concluded they should recommend to Mr. Trump a new approach that would include warning the American people of the risks and urging steps like social distancing and staying home from work. But the White House focused instead on messaging and crucial additional weeks went by before their views were reluctantly accepted by the president — time when the virus spread largely unimpeded.

When Mr. Trump finally agreed in mid-March to recommend social distancing across the country, effectively bringing much of the economy to a halt, he seemed shellshocked and deflated to some of his closest associates. One described him as “subdued” and “baffled” by how the crisis had played out. An economy that he had wagered his re-election on was suddenly in shambles.

I would say that it is unbelievable but sadly it is totally believable. Indeed, it couldn’t have been worse. But what could anyone expect when you put a celebrity con man with a verys serious personality disorder in charge of the country?

Trump’s hope for a November debacle

Trump has made it very, very clear that he believes vote-by-mail will result in him losing the election. He says people cheat which can happen, but the rare documented cases have all been by Republicans.

Fortunately, the country has been moving to vote by mail for some time and the option exists in the states Trump needs the most. Ron Brownstein writes:

In the states that will likely decide the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump has already lost his newly declared war against voting by mail.

All six of the swing states that both sides see as the most probable tipping points allow their residents to vote by mail for any reason, and there’s virtually no chance that any of them will retrench their existing laws this year. That means that, however much Trump rages, the legal structure is in place for a mail-voting surge in those decisive states: Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona in the Sun Belt and Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in the Rust Belt.

Such an increase “is going to happen” in states across the country this year, says Wendy Weiser, the director of the Democracy Program at the Brennan Center for Justice. “The president can’t prevent it from happening, his protestations notwithstanding. Voters are going to choose that option, and jurisdictions are going to need to make that option widely available in order to protect public health and administer their elections.”

That doesn’t mean Trump’s new crusade will have no effect. It’s so far stiffening Republican opposition to plans for furthering expand mail-voting access in response to the coronavirus pandemic. Those proposals include calls from Democrats and election-law reformers to preemptively mail all eligible voters a ballot, as five states do now, or to require all states to allow their residents to vote absentee for any reason. In the 28 states that already allow this “no excuse” absentee balloting, partisan struggles are nevertheless looming over whether to make the voting process easier.

But experts in voter turnout and mail voting anticipate that however these fights play out, the share of Americans who cast ballots by mail in November may roughly double from the previous presidential election, from just under one-quarter in 2016 to about one-half this year. Jocelyn Benson, Michigan’s secretary of state and a Democrat, expressed a broad consensus among local officials when she told me, “We will certainly see people voting by mail more than ever before in our state.”

This will present a big problem for states that aren’t set up for this although there is time to adjust if they choose to do it. We can almost certainly expect that the states run by Republicans will do everything in their power to put roadblocks up and very possibly cheat in ways we can only imagine. If the pandemic crisis is still raging I genuinely fear for the results.

And worse, I can’t see that there would be anything done about it. They’ve been setting the table for this since the 2000 election. And considering that the Supreme Curt just made a blatantly partisan decision in Wisconsin on voting regulations I think we can count on them for a reprise of Bush vs Gore whenever it’s necessary.

Of course, the irony is this:

“When you have a system of elections that have multiple methods by which people can vote—mail, in-person early voting, or Election Day—the mail ballots tend to be the most Republican of the group,” says Michael McDonald, a University of Florida political scientist who specializes in voter turnout.

Absentee voting was always considered a great GOP advantage. Now that Democrats want to use it they don’t like it. Of course.

So what’s the good news? Well, if the election doesn’t turn out to be total chaos, which may be possible, vote-by-mail will be available where it’s necessary: those all-important swing states that Trump must get to keep his lousy minority win in the electoral college.

17 states allow vote by mail only for cause and they are not among those crucial swing states.

The genuinely key states for November all fall into the middle category, allowing no-excuse mail balloting. They include not only the six noted above, but even a second tier of possibly competitive states, such as Iowa, Georgia, and Ohio (which Democrats might try to contest with smaller chances of success), and Minnesota, Nevada, and New Mexico (which Trump still hopes, at long odds, to contest).

The entire debate over voter access this fall would probably look very different without big recent changes to the law in two of the most crucial swing states: Michigan and Pennsylvania. Both states used to require voters to have an excuse for requesting a mail ballot. In November, both will use a no-excuse vote-by-mail system for the first time in a general election.

The irony in the president’s new offensive is that in many of the no-excuse states, Republicans have historically outpaced Democrats in organizing their supporters, especially older white voters, to vote by mail. In Arizona, for instance, Republicans outnumber Democrats on the state rolls of voters who have signed up to automatically receive a mail ballot. Arizonans over 50, a conservative-leaning bloc, also significantly outnumber those under 40. Voting by mail there has traditionally been “a Republican advantage,” Charles Coughlin, a veteran GOP consultant in the state, told me. “It was a program we have perfected over time because we chased it, and we made it happen.” The same is true in Florida.

Poll actually show him losing ground with the over-65 crowd. I suspect he’s very well aware that his only chance is to either suppress the vote entirely or turn it into such a shitshow that he can claim the outcome is illegitimate. It looks like the latter is going to be the play — and he’s got some GOP legislatures and Governors standing ready to help him.

.