Science magazine reports on a new study of COVID infections in France:
The worldwide pandemic of SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus which causes COVID-19, has resulted in unprecedented responses, with many affected nations confining residents to their homes. Much like the rest of Europe, France has been hit hard by the epidemic and went into lockdown on the 17 March 2020. It was hoped that this would result in a sharp decline in ongoing spread, as was observed when China locked down following the initial emergence of the virus (1, 2). Following the expected reduction in cases, the French government has announced it will ease restrictions on the 11 May 2020. To exit from the lockdown without escalating infections, we need to understand the underlying level of population immunity and infection, identify those most at risk for severe disease and the impact of current control efforts.
Daily reported numbers of hospitalizations and deaths only provide limited insight into the state of the epidemic. Many people will either develop no symptoms or symptoms so mild they will not be detected through healthcare-based surveillance. The concentration of hospitalized cases in older individuals has led to hypotheses that there may be widespread “silent” transmission in younger individuals (3). If the majority of the population is infected, viral transmission would slow, potentially reducing the need for the stringent intervention measures currently employed.
The idea that we have a lot of “silent transmission” among young people who had the virus without knowing it or had just a very mild case and are now immune is one that all of us have been hoping was the case. It would mean more than just “herd immunity.” It would also mean that many people could safely go back to work without fear of getting sick or spreading the disease.
Unfortunately, this study is not good news about this:
France has been heavily affected by the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic and went into lockdown on the 17 March 2020. Using models applied to hospital and death data, we estimate the impact of the lockdown and current population immunity. We find 3.6% of infected individuals are hospitalized and 0.7% die, ranging from 0.001% in those <20 years of age (ya) to 10.1% in those >80ya.
Across all ages, men are more likely to be hospitalized, enter intensive care, and die than women. The lockdown reduced the reproductive number from 2.90 to 0.67 (77% reduction). By 11 May 2020, when interventions are scheduled to be eased, we project 2.8 million (range: 1.8–4.7) people, or 4.4% (range: 2.8–7.2) of the population, will have been infected.
Population immunity appears insufficient to avoid a second wave if all control measures are released at the end of the lockdown.
If this is true, we are in for a rough time in the fall. There are going to be too many places just opening up willy nilly and individuals throwing caution to the wind. And it appears that a whole lot of them will be spreading the virus into a population that still will not have anything close to herd immunity.
Dr. Rick Bright, the ousted director of a key federal office charged with developing medical countermeasures, will testify before Congress on Thursday that the Trump administration was unprepared for the coronavirus pandemic and warn that the the US will face “unprecedented illness and fatalities” without additional preparations.
“Our window of opportunity is closing. If we fail to develop a national coordinated response, based in science, I fear the pandemic will get far worse and be prolonged, causing unprecedented illness and fatalities,” Bright is expected to say Thursday, according to his prepared testimony obtained by CNN.
“Without clear planning and implementation of the steps that I and other experts have outlined, 2020 will be darkest winter in modern history.”
So… that’s interesting.
I know it’s depressing. But the best we can hope for right now is to unflinchingly face reality. It’s very hard to do in the Trump era but it’s never been more vital. We can get through this but it requires that we follow the facts and the science. It’s now up up to each of us as individuals, families, communities and states to do it ourselves since there’s no chance the Trump administration will do anything right. They are simply incapable of it.