And the Republicans know it. The big question for them is how to handle the Trump cult. CNN reports:
“Put it this way, I am very glad my boss isn’t on the ballot this cycle,” said one high-ranking GOP Senate aide. Republican strategists are increasingly worried that Trump is headed for defeat in November and that he may drag other Republicans down with him.Seven GOP operatives not directly associated with the President’s reelection campaign told CNN that Trump’s response to the pandemic and the subsequent economic fallout have significantly damaged his bid for a second term — and that the effects are starting to hurt Republicans more broadly.
Some of these operatives asked not to be identified in order to speak more candidly.Several say that public polls showing Trump trailing presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden mirror what they are finding in their own private polls, and that the trend is bleeding into key Senate races. The GOP already had a difficult task of defending 23 Senate seats in 2020. The job of protecting its slim 3-seat majority has only gotten harder as the pandemic has unfolded. States like Arizona and North Carolina, once thought to be home to winnable Senate races now appear in jeopardy.
Trump himself is being alerted to the problems. Politico reported this week that two of Trump’s own outside political advisers, Corey Lewandowski and David Bossie, warned the President last week that his support was falling in some swing states. All of this demonstrates how difficult it is to run as a Republican incumbent almost anywhere in 2020. Strategists who spoke to CNN worry that Trump has become a liability for Republicans needing to expand their coalition beyond the President’s core base of supporters.
He is a liability to the nation and the world. That they still refuse to seethis in terms of our very survival asa democracy says as much about them as it does Trump.
The broader fear among Republicans is that the election becomes a referendum on Trump’s performance during the pandemic. Coupled with a cratered economy, the effect could be devastating by both depressing the Republican faithful and turning off swing voters. That one-two punch could knock the GOP out of power in Washington– and it’s what has strategists hoping the President’s reelection team can successfully transform the race to a choice between Trump and an unpalatable Biden.
But that effort has become increasingly difficult against the backdrop of a pandemic that has destroyed many of the economic gains Republicans had hoped to make the foundation of their re-election argument.”This is the one thing he (Trump) cannot change the subject on,” said a Republican strategist. “This is not a political opponent, this is not going way and he has never had to deal with something like this.”
He can only attack in the most ugly way possible. It’s all he knows.
The article goes on to quote an early May CNN poll showing that Trump is still getting 50% approval on the economy but I have to wonder how relevant that is now. They say the Trump campaign insists that the country trusts him to lead the recovery. Lol.
The economic message resonates strongly, particularly in a time like this,” said Trump campaign communications director Tim Murtaugh. “President Trump is clearly the one to restore us to that position. He did it once, he will do it again.” Still, the worry for Republicans beyond the Trump orbit is that if there are no signs of the economy turning the corner by November that will be an impossible argument for the Trump campaign to make.”Absent some sort of V-shaped recovery many people think he is dead in the water,” said the Republican strategist.
The Trumpies are high on their own supply and semi-sane Republicans know it. The economy was doing very well when he took over and most Americans know that. His cult may have been persuaded that the black president was presiding over a depression back in 2016 but they’ll believe anything.
Republicans are belatedly coming to see that the Divider-in-Chief isn’t just turning the nation into a toxic partisan hellhole. He’s dividing their party :
In the four years since winning the GOP nomination, Trump has solidified his position within the party. That has made it harder for Republicans in Congress to distance themselves from him without antagonizing his base. That, say Republican operatives, risks keeping away voters who may consider the GOP but don’t like the President.”It’s a very, very tough environment. If you have a college degree and you live in suburbia, you don’t want to vote for us,” said one long-time Republican congressional campaign consultant, who added there is a serious worry about bleeding support from both seniors and self-described independent men.
It’s hard to bring Trump skeptics over when he demands total loyalty and ostentatious bootlicking. For instance:
GOP Sens. Cory Gardner in Colorado and Susan Collins in Maine cannot afford a depressed Trump base in their states, even as they play up their independent identities to win swing voters. And the concern for Republicans goes beyond endangered incumbents — including Sens. Martha McSally of Arizona and Thom Tillis of North Carolina. There is even a chance, in a bad year for Trump, that GOP-held Senate seats in Georgia and Montana could be in trouble, said Donovan.
In the meantime, the cratered economy has intensified the need for Republican senators to differentiate themselves in subtle ways from Trump and his record. Scott Reed, the political director at the US Chamber of Commerce and a veteran of Republican campaigns, said that a presidential reelection campaign is “always” a referendum on the incumbent and his party.
Reed tells CNN that the Senators should trumpet their local accomplishments that have nothing to do with Trump. Good luck with that. I’m going to guess that the Democrats and Never-Trumpers will have something to say about it.
The Trump campaign played down the worries of down-ballot Republicans, pointing out that a unified GOP offers the best chance of winning across the board in November. “Any candidate that wants to win will run with the President,” said Erin Perrine, the Trump campaign’s deputy communications director. “He has the energy, the enthusiasm and the grass roots infrastructure. If you are a candidate you are going to want to be a part of that movement.”
But what Republican professionals say would help immensely is if the President stuck to an encouraging message on bringing the country back from the pandemic .”When he does it right three days in a row, it really bumps his numbers,” said Reed. “We need command performance on message discipline.”
Counting on Trump to do the right thing more than three days in a row is a fool’s errand. He has never, not once, been able to do that. He believes his “gut” which reflects the instincts of a spoiled, obstinate, 8 year-old schoolyard bully. He believes that if he changes, or even takes advice from anyone, it will show weakness and demonstrate that he isn’t the genius he portrays himself to be.
GOP senators up for re-election this year are between a rock and a hard place. It will be interesting to see how they handle it.
By the way, the latest polling shows Gardner, Collins and McSally losing by double digits. They have their work cut out for them.
The latest from the Lincoln Project: