This is a very smart observation by Josh Marshall. The comparisons we see all the time between different states and different countries really misses the point. The useful comparison is the one above:
I have spent a lot of time analyzing the New York COVID epidemic both because it was the center of the storm in the United States and because it affects me, my loved ones and coworkers so directly. The graphed shapes of the New York outbreak and the nationwide outbreak are quite different. The former rockets upward and falls down again at a slower but still comparable arc. Nationwide it’s quite different. The numbers rocket upward and then basically plateau. It’s not a proper comparison. The epicenter of an outbreak has different dynamics than the more rolling spread of contagion in less hard hit areas.
This is why the proper comparison is not New York vs the United States or the United States versus any European country, all of which are dramatically smaller than the US, both in geography and population. The proper comparison is the United States (~330 million) vs the EU (~440 million). This brings together hotspots and peripheries, urban and rural and all the mix of population densities into one. As you can see here the progress has been very different and not at all good for the control of the epidemic in the United States.
Look again at those number. The US has 330 million people while the EU has 440 million people. They are literally different countries while we are simply different states that have been forced to act as sovereign entities because of a lack of leadership from the central government.
But the EU has done much, much better despite having an epicenter very similar to ours in Italy.
Marshall notes:
The EU had a comparably dramatic outbreak. But then the numbers fell back to relatively low levels. In the US the numbers shot up and then basically plateaued. Indeed, when you remove New York from the equation even the minor fall back over the course of April largely disappears.
Marshall calls this a “profound failure” which it certainly is.
The clearest explanation is the lack of any clear national mitigation strategy and a failure to follow even the limited strategy the federal government outlined for ending the lockdown. Since early May the federal government’s clearest strategy has been to turn the page and move on, both in messaging and action. Most of the country felt the epidemic only in a very limited way in March, April and May. It is simply human nature that people in those states would assume some level of invulnerability and be less mitigation-compliant. The federal government has encouraged and enabled this tendency. Indeed the President has single-handedly made resistance to masking – which a growing body of evidence suggests are quite effective at scale – a badge of right-wing political identity.
He goes on to illustrate how the chickens are now coming home to roost in Oklahoma as Trump stages his first rally in a state that is experience a major spike in cases. It is appalling.
And the higher case numbers are not because we are doing so much more testing that the EU countries. Per capita they are doing a comparable number. This is the relevant comparison:
Trump has managed to convince half the country, maybe more, that the pandemic is over and people are simply going back to normal. He believes this will result in the economy roaring back just in time for him to take credit for beating the pandemic and proving his magnificent leadership.
Unfortunately for him, he needs the entire country to buy into his delusion. The Trump Death Cult cannot make the economy come back all by itself. They can’t even make it come back if young people ignore the guidelines and start spending as they usually do. He needs everyone and he’s not going to get them. There are a whole lot of people in this country who believe in science and are not willing to put their lives on the line for Donald Trump.