Political scientist Rachel Bitecofer last night pointed to the Economist’s Democracy Index 2019, dubbed “a year of democratic setbacks and popular protest.” In its survey of democracies in 165 independent states and two territories, the United States ranks 25th in the world, somewhere below Chile and into the “flawed democracy” category.
Jordan and Kuwait tie for the top position in the “authoritarian regime” category at 114, making that either something for the Donald Trump administration to crow about or else to shoot for.
Considering Trump now “leads” the world’s most enduring democracy, you would think he might care about little details like that ranking. But since his marketing professor at Wharton considered him “the dumbest goddam student I ever had,” scores likely were never as important to him as his image. One might assume from the acting president’s affection for authoritarians, flash grenades, and tear gas that getting a high score in democracy was not his idea of greatness anyway. Tanks in the streets are. Whatever MAGA cult members thought they were buying in November 2016, a high score in democracy wasn’t it.
Frank Rich considers the election last week in blue-trending Georgia (the North American one) a preview of our teetering democracy’s coming attractions:
The white supremacist party’s game plan to counter that threat was made clear this week: utter chaos. There was a breakdown in voting machines (purchased from a vendor with close ties to the Republican governor, Brian Kemp) that centered on black neighborhoods in Atlanta (including the one where Martin Luther King grew up), and a breakdown in mail voting that led to even [Stacey] Abrams herself receiving a defective ballot.
This is just a glimpse of what will be a national effort. Trump and his party will use any means they can to abridge the right to vote — whether it be this week’s vote by the Republican-majority senate in Iowa to restrict mail ballots, or White House inaction on Russian election interference, or the administration’s ongoing enabling of a COVID-19 second wave that can be exploited to sow further chaos into the electoral process right through Election Day.
Trump may or may not be at the tipping point. The country is.
Events surrounding the deaths by police of George Floyd on May 25 in Minneapolis and Rayshard Brooks on June 12 in Atlanta have the whole world watching for which way the United States tips.
Perceiving that a revival of The Recent Unpleasantness might not work to Trump’s electoral advantage (no matter the candidate’s inclinations), someone has prevailed on him to reschedule his rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma from its original Juneteenth (6/19) date. Tulsa was the site of the largest white massacre of blacks in America history one hundred years ago. And with Juneteenth being the annual celebration of the end of slavery, the campaign seems to believe a MAGA rally in Tulsa on that date would be over the top even for Trump.
David Frum observes that this backing-off demonstrates the campaign (if not Trump) understands how weak he is right now.
“This time, 2020, Trump’s own people must be telling him that his divide-and-win tactics have bumped into hostile electoral math,” Frum wrote in a tweet thread. “‘American carnage’ is a political attack for a challenger, not a political defense for an incumbent.”
With the likelihood of protests and possible police violence in “the heart of Trump country” at a Tulsa rally, “He’s confronting a responsibility he cannot dodge, at a time when his only political trick has ceased to work for him.” The police shooting of Rayshard Brooks and likely another wave or international protests makes the decision appear both prudent and further confirmation of his weakness.
Trump allies in the hinterlands are already bending in these political winds. But only so far.
The legislature in North Carolina on Friday passed and Gov. Roy Cooper (D) signed H1169, the “Bipartisan Elections Act of 2020. Despite 2018’s Republican absentee ballot scandal in the 9th Congressional District, the bill provides a modicum of relief for voters hoping to vote absentee to avoid both lines at the polls and coronavirus infections. (Still on the rise here, BTW.)
The bill “liberalizes” the absentee ballot process for the COVID-19 age. Voters will no longer need two witnesses or a notary to validate their sealed ballot envelopes. One witness or a notary will do. Voters may now make their requests by email or fax, and will be able to track their ballot submissions online.
Liberalizing, yes, but only to a point. Not wanting a repeat of Michigan’s sending out absentee ballot requests to every registered voter, North Carolina Republicans made sure any state or county board of elections employee “who knowingly sends or delivers an absentee ballot to any person who has not requested an absentee ballot … shall be guilty of a Class I felony.” Furthermore, the legislation makes clear the Executive Director or State Board of Elections shall not order an election using all mail-in absentee ballots. “Under no circumstances.”
Whether this experiment in self-governance survives another cycle may depend on voters utilizing one of several avenues for casting their ballots to prevent mischief in one from bringing down the entire effort. Moving to absentee ballots is part of that. We need to “flatten the curve” on how and when people vote this fall, I wrote recently. Expanding absentee voting to supplement early- and election-day voting makes it a third leg in a democratic strategic triad.
Rick Hasen of Election Law Blog confirmed that approach days later on MSNBC’s “All in with Chris Hayes.” Hasen said, “People need to be requesting absentee ballots just as soon as they’re allowed to. We have to flatten the absentee ballot request curve.”
This democracy may be groaning with growing pains or struggling to breathe its last. But it is not done yet.
Democracy Index editor Joan Hoey sees hope in the wave of global protests, writing, “The global march of democracy stalled in the 2000s and retreated in the second decade of the 21st century. But the recent wave of protest in the developing world and the populist insurgency in the mature democracies show the potential for democratic renewal.”
That gives us something to hope for. But renewal will not happen without action on all our parts.
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For The Win, 3rd Edition is ready for download. Request a copy of my free countywide GOTV mechanics guide at ForTheWin.us. This is what winning looks like.
Note: The pandemic will upend standard field tactics in 2020. If enough promising “improvisations” come my way, perhaps I can issue a COVID-19 supplement.