Almost exactly four years ago today:
In 1988 he thought the US had been “ripped off” by the rest of the world for 25 years. That means that in 2016, when he insisted that the rest of the world was laughing at us, he was saying that the US had been getting screwed by foreigners for 53 years. Nothing had changed in 28 years.
There are good reasons to be upset at America’s trade policy. Globalization has certainly had a negative affect on the American workforce. But Trump’s concern wasn’t about that. It was about being “laughed at” and “taken advantage of.” His understanding of trade is that we should be “making money” from tariffs on foreign goods and “winning” is having a trade surplus with the rest of the world. And he’s thought that since at least 1988 and no circumstances or changes in the way the world economy is organized has changed that.
Here’s the US Annualized GDP change from 1923 to 2009. Data are annual from 1923 to 1946 and quarterly from 1947 to the second quarter of 2009.
Note the period between 1963 to 1988 that Trump was whining about. The blues are expansions.
By the way in case anyone’s curious about Trump’s allegedly greatest economy in the world —
Historically the United States averaged a 3.21% growth rate from 1947 to 2019, according to Trading Economics. A poor first quarter growth rate generated legitimate fears of a recession, spurred on, no doubt, by trade wars, a government shutdown, and concerns about the yield curve. Growth rebounded in the second quarter (above 3%) but settled back down to 2% in the third and fourth quarters of 2019.
America is doing relatively well, keeping the top market spot currently ,and appears to be holding off China for the next several years. But the GDP per capita and growth rates for the United States could be better. More international political cooperation, as well as domestic political teamwork, could be the solution.