Month: July 2020

Portland Oregon has protest just about every day of the year. It’s part of the those of that city. Trump and Barr saw that as an opportunity to use their federal paramilitaries to foment violence and create a backlash among white suburbanites.

The New York Times reports today on how these troops were the instigators of the violence:

After flooding the streets around the federal courthouse in Portland with tear gas during Friday’s early morning hours, dozens of federal officers in camouflage and tactical gear stood in formation around the front of the building.

Then, as one protester blared a soundtrack of “The Imperial March,” the officers started advancing. Through the acrid haze, they continued to fire flash grenades and welt-inducing marble-size balls filled with caustic chemicals. They moved down Main Street and continued up the hill, where one of the agents announced over a loudspeaker: “This is an unlawful assembly.”

By the time the security forces halted their advance, the federal courthouse they had been sent to protect was out of sight — two blocks behind them. Eight weeks after the death of George Floyd, here’s a look at why longstanding protests in the city have recently intensified.

The aggressive incursion of federal officers into Portland has been stretching the legal limits of federal law enforcement, as agents with batons and riot gear range deep into the streets of a city whose leadership has made it clear they are not welcome…

The federal agents from four agencies arrived after President Trump signed an executive order on June 26 ordering the protection of federal monuments and buildings.

Everyone who thought Trump was some kind of peacenik had it so wrong. He loves war, he just doesn’t like foreign wars that were started by his predecessors. What he’s always wanted is a civil war. And so he’s trying to start one.

FYI:

Blue America has joined with Oregon SenatorsJeff Merkley and Ron Wyden and others in sponsoring a petition demanding that our government:

• require federal agents and the agency they work for to be clearly identifiable.
• prohibit the federal misuse of unmarked vehicles.
• prohibit federal agents from patrolling city streets, outside of federal property, unless invited to do so by local authorities.
• require agencies to disclose how many personnel have been deployed and for what mission when they’re sent into our cities.

https://www.signherenow.org/petition/trump-authoritarianism/blue-america/

I think we all knew on some level the moment they named the agency the Orwellian Department of Homeland Security, that we were building an internal police force. And if you build it, they will use it. They’re using it.

From Harry Enten at CNN:

1. This is the rare election not about the economy

A Fox News poll earlier this month revealed that 29% of voters said coronavirus/Covid-19 was the most important issue facing the country. That was nearly double the 15% who said the economy.Going back over time, there have only been a select number of modern elections not about the economy. In each of those elections, the candidate trusted most on this non-economic issue went on to win.

Indeed, vote choice is currently strongly correlated with whether voters think Biden or Trump can better handle coronavirus.The fact that coronavirus is playing such a big role in voters’ perceptions of Biden, Trump and the presidential race means that for now Trump’s in big trouble. But it also means that if the coronavirus picture changes for the better by November, Trump could come back.

2. That said, Trump’s approval rating is really bad

Right now, Trump has approximately a 40% approval rating and a 55% disapproval rating. This makes for a net approval rating of -15 points.Since 1940, no president has ever won another term in the White House with such a poor net approval rating at this point. The closest was Harry Truman in 1948, whose approval rating was nearly 10 points better at -6 points.As a group, the presidents (Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush) who were not elected to a second term look eerily similar to Trump. Their average net approval rating stood at -13 points.Trump’s net approval rating isn’t anywhere close to the average president who has earned another term, +23 points.

3. A Trump win is still within the margin of error

Biden is up by anywhere from eight points (including all polls) to 12 points (just live interview polls) in the national average, depending how you compute it. That’s a sizable edge.If you look at the polling 100 days out from each election involving an incumbent since 1940, the average difference between the polls at this point and the result has been 10 points. If you look at the elections (seven) where we were not in-between conventions at this point, that difference drops to six points.Trump would need an average to above average error to win the national vote. He would also need that error to go in his direction and not actually benefit Biden. That’s unlikely to occur.Still, he can take some hope from Truman in 1948, who was down by about the same in the national polls right now. Truman would go on to win by five points.

4. Biden’s advantage in the electoral college is clear

If you were to average the polls in every state, Biden leads in states containing 352 electoral votes to Trump’s 186. He’s additionally within a point in Georgia (16 electoral votes) and Texas (38 electoral votes).It’s quite conceivable that Biden would win over 400 electoral votes, if the election were held today.Perhaps as importantly, there is little sign that the electoral college will doom him like it doomed Hillary Clinton in 2016. His average lead in key states like Florida, Michigan and Wisconsin look quite similar to his advantage nationally.

5. This election looks nothing like 2016

Speaking of the 2016 election, Biden’s in a much better position than Clinton. Consider this fact: Clinton was hitting her apex in the national polls at this very moment. She had just wrapped up a successful Democratic National Convention, and she held an average 44% to 38% lead in two live interview polls completed 100 days from the election.Biden’s at 52% to Trump’s 40% in the live interview national polls taken in July. That is, he’s over 50%, unlike Clinton, and has basically double the lead Clinton was holding after her convention.Biden continues to have a better favorable rating and is viewed as far more honest than Clinton.Simply put, you’d much rather be Biden than Trump. But with some time to go, there’s still time for a Trump comeback.

What else is new?

Local television stations owned by the Sinclair Broadcast Group are set to air a conspiracy theory over the weekend that suggests Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top expert on infectious diseases, was responsible for the creation of the coronavirus.

A baseless conspiracy theory is set to air on stations across the country in a segment during the program “America This Week” hosted by Eric Bolling. The show, which is posted online before it is broadcast over the weekend, is distributed to Sinclair Broadcast Group’s network of local television stations, one of the largest in the country. A survey by Pew Research Group earlier this year showed that local news was a vital source of information on the coronavirus for many Americans, and more trusted than the media overall.

In this week’s episode of the show, Bolling spoke with Judy Mikovits, the medical researcher featured in the discredited “Plandemic” video that went viral earlier this year and which was banned from platforms such as Facebook and YouTube. Throughout the segment, the on-screen graphic read, “DID DR. FAUCI CREATE COVID-19?”

Bolling also spoke with Mikovits’ attorney, Larry Klayman, a right-wing lawyer who also has a history of pushing misinformation and representing conspiracy theorists.

During the interview Mikovits told Bolling that Fauci had over the past decade “manufactured” and shipped coronaviruses to Wuhan, China, which became the original epicenter of the current outbreak. Bolling noted that this was a “hefty claim,” but did not meaningfully challenge Mikovits and allowed her to continue making her case.

Klayman, who did not respond to a request for comment, also pushed conspiracy theories about the coronavirus. He said the “origins” of the virus were in the United States. Bolling didn’t meaningfully challenge Klayman either.

In the segment that immediately followed, Bolling spoke to Dr. Nicole Saphier, a Fox News medical contributor, to get her response to the claims from Mikovits and Klayman.

Bolling and Saphier agreed that it was, in Saphier’s words, “highly unlikely” that Fauci was behind the coronavirus. But they went on to theorize about other possible explanations for what had happened. Saphier said it was possible the virus was “man-made within a laboratory” and escaped. That claim has been rejected by experts who have studied the virus’ genetic sequence.

[…]

Bolling, a former Fox News host, told CNN Business in a series of text messages that he invited Mikovits onto his show to “question and challenge her beliefs.” Bolling also said he does not control the on-screen graphics that appear during his show.”I did challenge her,” Bolling said, noting he called her claim “hefty.”When pressed over whether calling a claim “hefty” constituted effectively challenging the conspiracy theory Mikovits pushed, Bolling said that he did believe he challenged her.

Bolling then told CNN Business that he was not aware of the viral “Plandemic” video Mikovits was featured in earlier this year, and said Saphier “was not originally booked on the show” and that he added her to “provide an opposing viewpoint.””I don’t know of any video she was in prior to or after appearing on my show. Frankly, I was shocked when she made the accusation,” Bolling said. “I asked our producers to add Saphier to the show for the express purpose of debunking the conspiracy theory. I believe viewers see that I did not and do not endorse her theory.”

When asked if he really was unaware that Mikovits had been in a viral video earlier in the year pushing misinformation about coronavirus, Bolling said he had been.”I give you my word… this is the first I’ve heard of the video,” Bolling said. “And the very first time I heard of Dr. Mikovits was the morning of taping.”

But when asked whether, now that he was aware of the video, he had any second thoughts about airing the segment with Mikovits, Bolling replied, “I don’t second guess my producers and bookers.”Bolling added, however, that he “certainly didn’t endorse her theory.”

It was bad enough that these lunatics pass around ridiculous conspiracy theories like Pizzagate. This is beyond the pale.

These are local broadcast stations that a lot of people don’t realize are right wing propaganda outfits. Who knows how many dumb people will think this is an actual news interview?

And I’m sure many of you duffers recall, as I do, that Larry Klayman was one of the Clinton conspiracy theorists who fueled right wing conspiracies back in the 90s. These people have been given way too much of a pass by polite company for far too long.

.

There were lots of parties in my neighborhood again last night. All the bars are closed again, so this is the new thing. I sure hope none of those partiers get the virus and have this happen:

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention acknowledged Friday that a significant number of COVID-19 patients do not recover quickly, and instead experience ongoing symptoms, such as fatigue and cough.

As many as a third of patients who were never sick enough to be hospitalized are not back to their usual health up to three weeks after their diagnosis, the report found.

“COVID-19 can result in prolonged illness even among persons with milder outpatient illness, including young adults,” the report’s authors wrote.

The acknowledgement is welcome news to patients who call themselves “long-haulers” — suffering from debilitating symptoms weeks and even months after their initial infection.

“This report is monumental for all of us who have been struggling with fear of the unknown, lack of recognition and many times, a lack of belief and proper care from medical professionals during our prolonged recovery from COVID-19,” Kate Porter, who is on day 129 of her recovery, wrote in an email to NBC News.

Porter, 35, of Beverly, Massachusetts, has had low-grade fevers, fatigue, rapid heart beat, shortness of breath and memory and sleep issues since her diagnosis March 17.

“This gives me hope that we will gain access to more resources throughout our recovery and hopefully, get our lives back to what they once were,” Porter wrote.

The CDC report is based on telephone surveys of 274 COVID-19 patients. Ninety-five of those patients, or 35 percent, said they “had not returned to their usual state of health” when they were surveyed, which was at least two to three weeks after their first test.

Many with long-term symptoms are otherwise young and healthy: Among those surveyed between ages 18 and 34, about 20 percent experienced lasting symptoms.

“This report indicates that even among symptomatic adults tested in outpatient settings, it might take weeks for resolution of symptoms and return to usual health,” the CDC authors wrote.

The report also pointed out that in contrast, “over 90 percent of outpatients with influenza recover within approximately two weeks” after a positive flu test.

A public service message on voting by mail or absentee. Rules vary by state.

If you are reading this, you are unlikely to change your mind about 2020 candidates at the 11th hour. Bone up now. Do not forget to vote the down-ballot races and judges (if you elect those). People elected to legislatures this year (in most states) will draw new districts in 2021. Do not wait to vote.

If you live in one of the handful of vote-by-mail states, return your ballot as soon as practicable. By mail or by drop-box. Ballots in those states go out in as few as 18 days ahead of the election. (They tend not to be swing states.)

If you plan to vote by absentee ballot this year, do the same. States mail out absentee ballots anywhere from three weeks to 60 days (North Carolina) ahead of Election Day (see NCSL Table 7). Neither wait to request an absentee ballot until the 11th hour nor wait to return it.

Many voters will be voting by absentee ballot for the first time ever. Follow directions scrupulously. Look at the signature on your driver’s license and be sure when you sign your ballot envelope your signature varies little. (Practice, maybe.) Elections boards use signature matches to verify you are you.

Election Administration and Voting Survey (EAVS) 2016 Report:

The most common reasons for rejection in 2016 were missing the deadline, the signature on the ballot not matching the signature on the state’s records, and the ballot not having a signature. Some of the categories include several reasons for ballot rejection. For example, the category “problem with return envelope” covers reasons such as the envelope was returned but was missing the ballot or multiple ballots were returned in one envelope.

Carefully weigh the potential risks of standing in line for hours at the polls among anti-maskers carrying coronavirus vs. the risks of having your absentee ballot rejected for technical reasons (see above). Those reasons, too, will vary by state. The average rejection rate for absentee ballots nationwide in 2016 was 1% (and 2.3% of those transmitted to voters in North Carolina). The highest rejection rates in 2016 were in Arkansas, Georgia, and Kentucky (over 5%; EAVS pgs. 23-25). With the expected flood of absentee ballots this year, expect that average to be somewhat higher. Read the instructions and execute them with care.

Since the acting president is actively trying to sabotage the U.S. Postal Service in advance of the election, waiting to send in your ballot adds to the risk it will not arrive in time to be counted. A few ballots postmarked in my county as much as 10 days ahead of the March primary return deadline (5 p.m. March 6) arrived too late to count. A few others arriving in time but with no postmark could not be counted. The percent was very small (under 1% of ballots cast), but you don’t want your vote to fall into that percent. Mail your ballot early (instructions will likely tell you how much postage is required) or, better yet, drop off your absentee ballot in person at your local Board office, at a drop box (if your state provides those), or at an early voting site (if permitted). Review and follow ballot return rules for your state (see NCSL Table 10).

Plus, the earlier your local Board receives your ballots ahead of the election, the easier time they will have processing them and managing the inflow. You DO NOT WANT them to have to process a flood of last-minute absentees on or after Election Day. Delays in certifying the election give Trump more time to pimp his theory that mailed ballots were “rigged” somehow against him.

Elections for president must be certified in time for the constitutionally mandated meetings of state electors in December. In North Carolina, a certification delay into December could (state law) throw the decision of how the state casts its electoral votes to the GOP-led legislature. Let’s not do that.

(I’m most familiar with my own state. I’m open to hearing about little-known quirks in yours. I will likely revise and repost this closer to the election.)

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

For The Win, 3rd Edition is ready for download. Request a copy of my free countywide GOTV mechanics guide at ForTheWin.us. This is what winning looks like.
Note: The pandemic will upend standard field tactics in 2020. If enough promising “improvisations” come my way, perhaps I can issue a COVID-19 supplement.

Oh my God feds took this woman in Portland last night just for dancing with flowers. https://t.co/5VbdkrhYOu

— Read Let This Radicalize You (@JoshuaPHilll) July 24, 2020

I have little doubt that gave Dear Leader a big, big thrill.

“They knocked the hell out of him. That was the end of him” — Trump gloats about feds tear-gassing mayor of Portland pic.twitter.com/0PN5y05OzR

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) July 24, 2020

Trump administration has stressed that the federal law enforcement officials going into Chicago will NOT be re-creating another Portland.

Trump stepped all over that last night, saying, "we'll put in 50k, 60k people…they're strong, they're tough" https://t.co/nkCwePzbSw

— igorvolsky (@igorvolsky) July 24, 2020

Donald Trump clearly believes that suburban women are still 1950s haus fraus like he saw on TV when he was a kid.

The Suburban Housewives of America must read this article. Biden will destroy your neighborhood and your American Dream. I will preserve it, and make it even better! https://t.co/1NzbR57Oe6

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 23, 2020

What the hell is he talking about? Well:

Anyone who has ever glimpsed the vast tracts outside our big cities, where houses with yards and driveways stretch to the horizon, might say, “Good luck with that.” The idea that they will undergo a hideous transformation vastly exaggerates what any future president could accomplish, even if he or she wanted to. But Biden and his party do have reforms in mind that, rather than abolish the suburbs, could open them up to more Americans.

Biden favors the Obama administration’s policy of attaching conditions to federal funds in order to get states and municipalities to eliminate barriers to housing development and expand the supply of housing. Among the policies it would undermine are zoning regulations that allow nothing but single-family houses. Easing those restrictions would make suburban homes less expensive, which in turn would facilitate racial integration.

He naturally assumes that white suburban women are as racist as he is. Apparently, they are not.

But they certainly do not like Donald Trump.

“We think the election’s going to be about, you know, public safety, about China, and about who they think is going to help build the economy,” said Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL). 

Yeah, good luck with that. No wonder the new Quinnipiac poll shows Biden ahead in Florida by 13 points.

Honestly, it appears that many members of the GOP senate are just blindly hurling themselves over the cliff regardless of what Trump is or isn’t doing. The caucus is in chaos and it’s going to result in continuing the suffering of a whole lot of Americans.

The emerging legislation is likely to be the last major coronavirus-focused bill to clear Congress before Election Day. If it does even some of what the CARES Act did—direct stimulus checks with Trump’s name on them, extended unemployment insurance, more money for testing and treatment—it could give the president, and his re-election campaign, a much-needed shot in the arm. 

But Senate Republicans aren’t sure how lengthy a legislative lifeline to toss to the president—or even if they should hand one at all. Some lawmakers have a narrow, targeted extension of benefits in mind, while self-described fiscal hawks who are close Trump allies have started to loudly skewer the idea of another trillion-dollar bill, arguing that Trump would be damaged more if he approved such a bill than if he did not. 

“I think that the conservative base is tired of spending money we don’t have,” said Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), “and actually exploding the debt by $5 trillion in six months offends a lot of conservatives in the party.”

Another staunch Trump ally in the Senate, Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI), said it “boggles my mind” that the GOP conference isn’t more united in questioning the need for more spending. Speaking with The Daily Beast off the Senate floor on Thursday, Johnson rattled off figures about the growing federal debt and deficit during the crisis, something he argued should give all lawmakers pause about another package.

“I don’t think it’d be a problem not passing this trillion dollars. Not at all,” said Johnson, when asked if the lack of another coronavirus bill would be a political problem for Trump. “You take a look at what we haven’t spent of the $2.9 trillion [already appropriated] and spend it better.”

Passage of a narrower bill—rather than the broad, $1 trillion package that GOP leaders are eyeing, or even a delayed infusion of funds—could be a political disaster for all involved given the imminent deadlines ahead: extended unemployment insurance expires at the end of July, as does a moratorium on evictions, threatening the livelihoods of tens of millions of Americans made newly vulnerable by the pandemic.ADVERTISING

But as Senate Republicans struggled to even get to the starting line to negotiations with Democrats—on Thursday, a draft agreement between GOP lawmakers and the White House was set to be introduced but was then scuttled to Monday—there seemed to be little alarm that falling short in countering the crisis gripping the country would have any kind of negative impact on Trump’s quest for another four years.

This is an unusual electoral strategy, to say the least. But is it really surprising? The GOP has completely rotted its collective brain with overexposure to talk radio, Fox News and Donald Trump. It was inevitable.

How to person woman man camera tv pic.twitter.com/rcQC4sxmLX

— Sarah Cooper (@sarahcpr) July 24, 2020

pic.twitter.com/3kh81WYNTu

— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) July 24, 2020

KRISTIAN ROUZ (OAN CORRESPONDENT): The deep state appears to be fighting back. On Wednesday, mainstream media celebrated the decision by Twitter to remove the accounts and content connected to the QAnon movement. The group’s actions were labeled as leading to offline harm, which may suggest Twitter admits the growing influence of Q in America’s social and political life.

…

ROUZ: This latest attempt to purge Q content comes right after President Trump deployed Homeland Security investigations to Democrat-run cities. America’s law enforcement was speculated to have connections to Q. But the latest crime and political terror glorified in millions of Twitter posts stands on the opposing side. The media and Democrats are slamming the president for enforcing the law, and it appears important that the other side is silenced.

…

ROUZ: And while mainstream media criticize law enforcement like that, they also refer to Q as a “dangerous conspiracy cult” that also happens to support law enforcement. But a growing number of Americans may be doing their own research, as reports also say QAnon is becoming a widely accepted system of beliefs — the new mainstream. Indeed, after years of revelations of high corruption in Washington and lies by Democrat media, QAnon ideas appear immensely popular.

Media Matters also points out that this “correspondent” was previously with Sputnik, the Russian state TV outlet.

Trump loves this network.