We won’t know if the convention gave the Democratic ticket a bounce until the weekend at the earliest. But it does appear that Biden’s choice of Harris has had some good effects already:
[P]olls for the Voter Participation Center, administered by the African American Research Collaborative (AARC) and Latino Decisions, were conducted in a half-dozen battleground states in the days surrounding Harris’s Aug. 11 pick.
“The survey was in the field almost an equal number of days before and after the announcement of Sen. Kamala Harris as the Democratic vice presidential candidate,” wrote Matt Barreto, founder of Latino Decisions, in a memo first reviewed by The Hill.
“Looking at the sample, it is balanced before and after the Harris announcement — there are not more Democrats interviewed after, there are not more young people. The data are similar before and after,” Barreto told The Hill. “The only change is that Sen. Harris was named to the ticket, and the data finds large movement towards Biden, well outside the margin of error, among both Blacks and Latinos.”
“This is real movement, this is not a statistical anomaly,” he added.
Harris is the first woman of color to be named a vice presidential candidate for a major political party. She would be the first female vice president if Democrats win the White House in November.
Among Latino voters, Harris’s pick gave Biden a nearly 6 percentage point boost, while cutting into support for President Trump by 9 percentage points, a net boost of 15 points for Biden.
Before the announcement, 59 percent of Hispanic respondents said they would vote or were leaning toward Biden, compared with 26 percent who said the same of Trump.
After the Harris announcement, 65 percent of Hispanic respondents said they supported Biden, while only 17 percent said they supported Trump.
According to an AARC memo on the recent polling, Biden received an 11-point net boost among Black voters when comparing the before and after numbers.
The polls for the Voter Participation Center, administered by the African American Research Collaborative (AARC) and Latino Decisions, were conducted in a half-dozen battleground states in the days surrounding Harris’s Aug. 11 pick.
“The survey was in the field almost an equal number of days before and after the announcement of Sen. Kamala Harris as the Democratic vice presidential candidate,” wrote Matt Barreto, founder of Latino Decisions, in a memo first reviewed by The Hill.
“Looking at the sample, it is balanced before and after the Harris announcement — there are not more Democrats interviewed after, there are not more young people. The data are similar before and after,” Barreto told The Hill. “The only change is that Sen. Harris was named to the ticket, and the data finds large movement towards Biden, well outside the margin of error, among both Blacks and Latinos.”
“This is real movement, this is not a statistical anomaly,” he added.
Harris is the first woman of color to be named a vice presidential candidate for a major political party. She would be the first female vice president if Democrats win the White House in November.
Among Latino voters, Harris’s pick gave Biden a nearly 6 percentage point boost, while cutting into support for President Trump by 9 percentage points, a net boost of 15 points for Biden.
Before the announcement, 59 percent of Hispanic respondents said they would vote or were leaning toward Biden, compared with 26 percent who said the same of Trump.
After the Harris announcement, 65 percent of Hispanic respondents said they supported Biden, while only 17 percent said they supported Trump.
According to an AARC memo on the recent polling, Biden received an 11-point net boost among Black voters when comparing the before and after numbers.
I think her choice made some white Democrats very happy as well, particularly women.
I expect she will give a good speech tonight. She’s a pro and she can be very compelling. If Biden gets a lift from this convention, I expect it will be because of the showcasing of the diversity of the Democratic Party in terms of race, ethnicity, gender, age and even ideology. If you’re watching TV with the sound turned off (as Karl Rove always said was the way politics is really conveyed) the America that Biden and Harris represent is dramatically different than the Trump cult of resentful white people like this:
