The conventions re over and we’re getting some polling. 538 shows a little tightening, but not much, with their poll average at 7.5.
The Economist poll average is at 8.2:
So basically Biden is running ahead in the popular vote at the moment by about 8 points.The conventions don’t seem to have changed things much and Trump’s fearmongering isn’t taking, at least not yet. Let’s just say I wouldn’t want to be Trump.
Here’s the Economist analysis of the electoral college vote today:
As for the details, they differ somewhat in the various polls but I think one by Quinnipiac, which has Biden up by 10 points, asks some of the most interesting questions:
On the heels of back-to-back political party conventions and a climate of growing unrest in the country, likely voters support former Vice President Joe Biden over President Donald Trump 52 – 42 percent in a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll released today. This is the first survey of likely voters in the 2020 presidential election race by the Quinnipiac University Poll, and cannot be compared to results of earlier surveys of registered voters. Democrats go to Biden 93 – 6 percent, Republicans go to Trump 90 – 8 percent, and independents back Biden 50 – 40 percent.
COUNTRY BETTER OR WORSE OFF THAN 2016?
Likely voters say 58 – 38 percent that the country is worse off than it was in 2016, the year of the last presidential election. Republicans say 84 – 15 percent the country is better off, Democrats say 95 – 4 percent it is worse off, and independents say 60 – 36 percent it is worse off.
“With six in ten likely voters feeling the country has lost ground, the president stares down a big gap to make up in a short time,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
BIDEN VS. TRUMP: THE ISSUES
Likely voters are split 48 – 48 percent when asked whether Biden or Trump would do a better job handling the economy.
Asked about handling four other key issues, Biden holds a clear lead:
On handling racial inequality, Biden would do a better job 58 – 36 percent;
On handling the response to the coronavirus, Biden would do a better job 56 – 40 percent;
On handling health care, Biden would do a better job 55 – 41 percent;
On handling a crisis, Biden would do a better job 53 – 43 percent.
MORE SAFE, LESS SAFE
Fifty percent of likely voters say having Donald Trump as president of the United States makes them feel less safe, while 35 percent say it makes them feel more safe, and 14 percent say it doesn’t have any impact on how they feel.
Forty-two percent of likely voters say having Joe Biden as president of the United States would make them feel more safe, while 40 percent say it would make them feel less safe, and 16 percent say it wouldn’t have any impact on how they feel.
“While the president has been pushing the issue of safety to the center of the presidential campaign, it raises the question: Who most has your back, the current administration, or the challengers? As racial strife, a seemingly endless pandemic, and an economy on life support unnerve Americans, voters foresee a more reliable lifeline in the Biden Harris ticket,” added Malloy.
FAVORABILITY RATINGS: BIDEN AND HARRIS
Biden receives a mixed favorability rating, as 45 percent have a favorable opinion and 48 percent have an unfavorable opinion.
For Democratic Vice Presidential candidate Kamala Harris, 40 percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of her, 34 percent have an unfavorable opinion, and 25 percent haven’t heard enough about her.
FAVORABILITY RATINGS: TRUMP AND PENCE
Likely voters give Trump a negative favorability rating with 56 percent having an unfavorable opinion and 41 percent viewing him favorably.
Vice President Mike Pence’s favorability rating is also underwater as 47 percent of likely voters have an unfavorable opinion of him and 38 percent view him favorably.
MAIL-IN & ABSENTEE BALLOTS, EARLY & IN-PERSON VOTING
More than 4 in 10 of likely voters, 45 percent, say they think they will vote in person on Election Day. Just over one-third, 35 percent, say they think they will vote early by mail or absentee ballot, and 16 percent say they think they will vote at an early voting location. There are sharp divides along political party lines when it comes to the most popular mode of casting a ballot. A majority of Republicans, 64 percent, think they will vote in person, while a slim majority of Democrats, 51 percent, think they will vote by mail or absentee ballot. Among independents, a plurality, 45 percent, say they think they will vote in person.
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL
President Trump receives a negative job approval rating with 43 percent of likely voters approving of the job he’s doing and 54 percent disapproving.
He gets higher marks on his handling of the economy, with voters split 49 – 49 percent.
CORONAVIRUS RESPONSE
Forty-one percent of likely voters approve of the way President Trump is handling the response to the coronavirus, while 57 percent disapprove.
More than half of likely voters, 55 – 39 percent, think President Trump is hurting rather than helping efforts to slow the spread of the coronavirus.
CORONAVIRUS OUTLOOK
Overall, likely voters are evenly split on whether the coronavirus situation in the United States is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same. Thirty-three percent say better, 32 percent say worse, and 32 percent say the same. Along party lines, a majority of Republicans, 64 percent, say it’s getting better, while a majority of Democrats, 56 percent, say it’s getting worse. Independents are mixed: 38 percent say the same, 32 percent say better, and 27 percent say worse.
More than six in ten likely voters, 61 percent, say they either personally know someone who’s been infected with the coronavirus or have been infected themselves.
THE ECONOMY
Sixty percent of likely voters describe the economy as “not so good” or “poor,” while 37 percent describe it as “excellent” or “good.” Views on the economy vary greatly depending on political affiliation. Seventy-four percent of Republicans describe it as “excellent” or “good,” 88 percent of Democrats describe it as “not so good” or “poor,” and 64 percent of independents describe it as “not so good” or “poor.”
RACISM: A BIG PROBLEM IN THE U.S.
Three-quarters of likely voters do agree on one thing: that racism is a big problem in the United States. Overall, 75 percent say it’s a big problem, while 23 percent say it is not a big problem. Broken down by party, Democrats say 97 – 2 percent it’s a big problem, and independents say 72 – 25 percent it’s a big problem. Republicans, however, are split with 51 percent saying it’s a big problem and 45 percent saying it is not.
“Overall, the majority of likely voters agree as to what has been described as America’s original sin. They see racism as pervasive,” added Malloy.