Axios reports that just three percent of voters have not made up their minds on the 2020 presidential race. That is a mighty small pool amenable to persuasion efforts. Still, every fraction of a percent matters in tight races. It did in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin in 2016.
Here is their evidence:
- The conventions had practically no impact on the shape of the race: Biden’s national polling lead (+7.5 per FiveThirtyEight’s average of polls) is just a half-point smaller than it was a month ago.
- Just 3% of likely voters said they didn’t know who they’d vote for in a recent national Quinnipiac poll. The same percent of registered voters said they were undecided in a Monmouth poll this week.
- An August poll by the Pew Research Center found that among those who preferred Biden or Trump, just 5% said there was a chance they’d change their minds.
- Compare that to Pew’s poll in August 2016,which found that 8% of Hillary Clinton’s supporters said there was a chance they might vote for Trump. Similarly, for those who preferred Trump, 8% said they might vote for Clinton.
- Even in the swingiest of swing states, most people’s minds appear made up. Just 5% of Floridians say they might change their minds, according to a recent Quinnipiac poll.
Better work on turnout then. Much depends on how well Democrats inclined to vote by mail navigate any obstacles to their votes counting. The “higher rejection rates for improperly cast mail-in ballots mean more potential for uncounted votes,” Axios notes.
So far as I am aware, mail delivery for ballots has not been an issue yet. But voting as early as possible is a way around delivery issues. If drop boxes are available, use them. If you can drop off your ballot in person at the local Board or at an early voting site, do it. If you intend to vote early, vote as early as the calendar allows. Early means there is time for correcting for errors, yours as well as others’. See the story of my friend “Herbert.” Waiting means setting yourself up for failure. Don’t do that.
Again, Trump won by a faction of a point in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin in 2016. Turnout matters. Fractions matter. Your vote matters.
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