Since Barton Gellman’s “The Election That Could Break America” last week, months of whispers went public about Democrats needing a 12th Amendment backup plan for securing the presidency for Joe Biden. Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says her team has been gaming this out for some time behind the scenes. Now she is publicly recommending a belt-and-suspenders approach.
WASHINGTON – House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has urged Democrats to win more House seats if a scenario unfolds in which the House of Representatives would vote to determine the outcome of the presidential election in November.
In a letter to Democrats on Sunday, Pelosi outlined an option in which neither President Donald Trump nor former Vice President Joe Biden win a majority of votes in the Electoral College, meaning the House of Representatives would have to decide the election by a vote. Pelosi referenced remarks from Trump, who said in mid-September that “at a certain point, it (the election) goes to Congress.”
Under that scenario, which hasn’t happened since 1876, every state’s delegation gets a single vote. Who receives that vote is determined by an internal tally of each lawmaker in the delegation. This means the presidency may not be decided by the party that controls the House itself but by the one that controls more state delegations in the chamber. And right now, Republicans control 26 delegations to Democrats’ 22, with Pennsylvania tied and Michigan a 7-6 plurality for Democrats, with a 14th seat held by independent Justin Amash.
Democrats need to flip control of House delegations to ensure they control that process. Two of the lightest lifts are in Montana and Alaska, states with only one representative. Both are now in GOP hands but with polls turning against Republicans, they could be one-seat delegation pickups for Democrats. Cook’s rates both seats “lean Republican,” but the races themselves may be closer.
Democrat Kathleen Williams is running for the open Montana seat vacated by U.S. Rep. Greg Gianforte, now running in a toss-up race for governor against incumbent Steve Bullock. An August poll from the House Majority PAC showed state Rep. Williams leading state Auditor Matt Rosendale (R) 49%-47%. An earlier poll from July showed the two tied, with Williams more popular than Rosendale. Her ActBlue page is here.
Alyse Galvin is running as a Democratic-nominated registered independent against 24-term Republican Don Young for Alaska’s at-large House seat. The Emily’s-list endorsed candidate recently sued the election commission for stripping candidates’ political registrations from the ballot because Galvin “has heavily advertised herself as an independent candidate.” The new ballots identify her as the Democratic party’s nominee. The state Supreme Court declined to order reprinting of the ballots. “The fact that neither campaign has released or leaked polling data suggests, however, this is a real horse race,” the Washington Post’s Henry Olsen believes. Galvin’s ActBlue page is here.
The Senate would decide the selection of Vice President by a majority vote under the 12th Amendment. Alaska’s U.S. Senate seat is also in play (Dr. Alan Gross). So is Mississippi’s (Mike Espy). Plan your donations accordingly.
A couple of polls now show Biden up 9 points over Trump in Pennsylvania. Winning a landslide electoral victory on Nov. 3 could make all this electoral college intrigue moot. But do not trust to that.
Remember, Trump is no longer trying to win the election outright at the polls. He is hoping to stop the vote count on Election Day. And, if that doesn’t work, to challenge the count in enough states to tie up in court certification of a majority of electors until Dec. 8. That throws the election into the House of Representatives. It is his last line of reelection defense. After that, there is resignation and hope for a Pence pardon that won’t cover all his legal exposure.
Better to kick his ass with Democratic turnout. But cover yours just in case.
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