Post-debate analysis continues unabated with multiple calls to cancel the remaining presidential debates as threats to democracy itself. From Donna Edwards. From Frank Bruni. George Will trotted out putrescence to describe his revulsion. What a card.
But for all that, there is little sign the fundamentals of the contest between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden have changed. More worrisome is how the heavy thumbs of Trump supporters might tilt the playing field for him.
The Atlantic considers what right-wing militant groups might do on or after Election Day to secure the nation against a perilous slide into pluralism. Trigger fingers among the Oath Keepers and other militia-branded armed gangs are itchy for the glorious second civil war of their Soldier of Fortune fantasies.
Rural Pike County, Pennsylvania’s elections office has turned away prospective voters from New York and New Jersey who relocated to second homes there to escape COVID-19. A side-eyed, “You ain’t from around here, err ye?” has a long tradition in the South, but is by no means unique there. Only the accents change as one explores the Dwight D. Eisenhower National System of Interstate and Defense Highways. But Pike County is Trump country. So officials discovered a raft of extra-statutorial qualifications former urbanites have to meet before registering to vote there.
Trump plainly urged supporters to head to the polls to “watch very carefully” for cheating. You know, by THEM. He just as plainly stated Tuesday evening he “can’t go along” with any outcome that does not result in his winning. When Republicans win, they have a mandate to lead and when Democrats win, they cheated is a narrative the GOP has spun for decades. The New York Times documents at length the legend of voter fraud to which a coterie of Republican operatives have devoted their careers in efforts to keep the wrong kind of Americans from voting. Especially Americans of a darker hue.
In the end, pollster Stanley Greenberg found little post-debate movement overall in support for either candidate.
“The structure of the race was totally unchanged,” Greenberg told New York magazine’s Sarah Jones. “If you look at the personal favorability, look at the attributes of each candidate, if you look at who is better on some key issues, there is no change.”
That is, in the race overall. There was notable “slippage” among one key group of Trump supporters:
“When you look at the pre- and post-debate results, and when you look at personal favorability, Trump disappointed the white-working class men,” Greenberg noted. They came away feeling about 7 points less positive than Trump and gave Biden 6 more points.
While they aren’t deserting Trump en masse, the slippage is notable, especially since Trump slightly improved his position with white-working class women. Among them, Greenberg said, “his vote went up from 44 to 53 percent.” The turnaround was powered by their changing opinions of Trump and health care: they headed into the debate favoring Biden on the issue by an 11-point margin and came out supporting Trump by 6 points. When asked generally about “issues affecting the middle class” though, white-working class women mostly sided with Biden.
Trump needed to improve his position on Tuesday and failed. Lost. Voting is already underway in swing states. Votes already cast are off the table, with significant shrinkage in the table forecast before Election Day. Trump who previously insisted his voters show up on Election Day finally encouraged Michiganders to vote early by mail on Monday. This after months of bad-mouthing the security of voting by mail. Hullabaloo alum David Atkins tweeted that “it’s entirely possible that Trump/GOP turnout could hit record lows as his voters refuse to vote by mail, then experience the usual dropoffs from raw e-day vote issues combined with COVID fears.”
Voting on Election Day only also incurs the risk of cold, snow, wind, rain, and traffic depressing Trump’s turnout. Clearly, he is as lousy at campaign strategy as he is at running the country or his other crumbling empire.
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