I don’t know if that breakdown will hold up, of course. If all the GOP voters and independent leaning Republicans are waiting until election day, it will even out somewhat. But if it’s even close to the final it’s hard to see how Trump legitimately wins.
The NY Times reports on what’s happened in Texas:
Texas, a 2020 jump-ball state once considered a layup for Republicans, is shattering turnout records, with the number of early in-person and mail-in ballots now exceeding the total number of votes cast statewide in the 2016 election.
Early-voting turnout has been enormous across the country, spurred by the coronavirus pandemic and one of the most bitterly contested presidential races in history, accelerating a years-in-the-making shift away from Election Day-only voting.
As of Friday morning, more than 83 million votes had been cast, representing more than 60 percent of the total ballots cast four years ago, according to the nonpartisan U.S. Elections Project.
In 11 states, voters have already submitted 80 percent of the ballots cast in those states in 2016, and five of them — Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada, along with Texas — are battlegrounds.
Texas, the nation’s second most-populous state, was the second to pass its 2016 threshold. (The first was Hawaii.) The Texas secretary of state’s office reported Friday morning — the last day for early voting in the state — that 9,009,850 people had already voted by mail, dropped ballots in boxes or showed up at polling sites. Four years ago, a record-breaking 8,969,226 Texans voted in the election.
That is amazing. Of course, they’re actually planning to throw out millions of early votes if at all possible so who knows how that works out? I’m very worried about these red states.
We’re starting to get in the final polls. It’s not tightening. If anything it’s ticked up a little bit in the last couple of days:
It is very hard to imagine how anyone could lose a free and fair election with that much of a lead in the polls. But the antediluvian electoral college throws a monkey wrench into that, as we know. And now the vote suppression has moved beyond long lines and Voter ID, to the conservative courts. Anything could happen.