Biden continues to have an advantage with Black voters, Latinos, whites with a college degree, women, people who live in cities and suburbs, young voters and independents.
Notably, Biden is leading in this survey with white voters 51% to 47%. That is extraordinary. Trump won white voters in 2016 by 20 points, and no Democrat has won that high a share of white voters since Jimmy Carter in 1976, when the U.S. was far less racially diverse.
If Biden does, in fact, win that level with whites, it would indicate that a very large wave is building for Democrats up and down the ballot.
Trump’s strongest groups continue to be white evangelical Christians, rural voters and whites without college degrees. But Trump’s advantage among whites without a degree is down a net of 19 points from last month.
In September, Trump led among whites without a college degree 63% to 33%. That has significantly narrowed this month to a 54%-43% advantage for Trump. Trump won them 66% to 29% in 2016 over Hillary Clinton.
The one group the Biden campaign has to be concerned about is Latinos. Biden is leading only 55% to 37% with Latinos. Clinton won Latinos 66% to 28% in 2016.
Biden’s widened lead comes on the heels of Trump’s erratic first debate performance, the vice presidential debate and Trump’s contracting COVID-19. By a 53%-to-35% margin, likely voters say Biden and his running mate, California Sen. Kamala Harris, benefited more from the debates than Trump and Vice President Pence.
I hate to put too much stock in white people at this point. But the internals show a large erosion of Trump support among non-college educated white women and college educated white men. Maybe some people have finally wised up. He’s also doing poorly among seniors. Perhaps it’s because he’s trying to kill them but I can’t be sure …
Meanwhile, Biden is leading on the major issues of the day as well:
Biden has significant advantages among likely voters when it comes to handling the coronavirus pandemic and race relations, while voters are split on who’s best to handle the economy.
On the pandemic, likely voters say they prefer Biden to handle it by a 55%-to-41% margin. On race, it’s an even wider 56%-38% advantage for the former vice president.
On the economy, voters are split — 47% say they prefer Trump to handle the economy, while 48% say Biden. That’s slightly tighter than the 50%-46%edge for Trump on the economy last month. The economy had been one of Trump’s strengths, but since the coronavirus pandemic shut down much of the economy, Trump’s ratings have suffered some.
I wish I understood why they think Trump is good on the economy but I’d have to say that it’s a result of decades of GOP propaganda combined with Trump’s relentless blarney about his “talents” as a businessman. But even on that he’s losing.
Nonetheless, it would be stupid to discount Trump’s chances. If he can get out a huge vote among supporters who didn’t vote last time — white non-college educated, rural voters, he could pull another inside straight in enough battle grounds to eke out a win. The people who like him really, really like him. It could happen.