Enough already with the horse race

Golden Gate Fields, Albany, California, December 2017. Photo by Noah Salzman, via CC BY-SA 4.0.

We are not out of the woods by a long shot. But Cook Political’s Dave Wasserman believes the election has the potential to be a landslide.

Here's how I roughly think about the map. If Biden wins popular vote by…

3% or less: Trump probably wins AZ/PA, wins w/ 279+ EVs
4-7%: Biden flips AZ/MI/PA/WI/#NE02, wins 290 EVs
8-9%: adds some combo of FL/GA/NC/TX/#ME02, wins 305-389 EVs
10% or more: adds IA/OH, wins 413 EVs
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 2, 2020

The House looks good too. Particular Senate races will be nail-biters.

New @CookPolitical: our FINAL House outlook is a Dem net gain of 10-15 seats, with anything from 5-20 seats well within the range of possibility. View our final ratings: https://t.co/wcfAZ8REga

Solid/Likely/Lean D: 229
Solid/Likely/Lean R: 179
Toss Up: 27 pic.twitter.com/WcdnWJLG16
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 2, 2020

But this is just trolling. FiveThirtyEight gives Trump a 10% chance of winning the election. Biden gets 90. So what does ABC want to ask about?

Yeah, what if that 10% chance comes through? The media needs a horse race.

FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver: "Without Pennsylvania, Biden becomes an underdog."https://t.co/EKjT4iFZfW
— Axios (@axios) November 1, 2020