It doesn’t look like it will be any of the usual suspects…
POLITICO/Morning Consult poll conducted in the days following the Senate trial shows that despite the impeachment managers’ gripping presentation and video laying out Trump’s role in the Jan. 6 rampage, the GOP remains the undisputed party of Trump.
Republican voters got over any misgivings they had about Trump’s role on Jan. 6 very quickly.Fifty-nine percent of Republican voters said they want Trump to play a major role in their party going forward.That’s up 18 percentage points from a Morning Consult poll conducted on Jan. 7, and an increase of 9 points from a follow-up poll on Jan. 25, before the impeachment trial began.
Another piece of evidence: While Trump’s overall favorability rating is an abysmal 34% in our latest poll, 81% of Republican respondents gave him positive marks. Trump was at 77% approval among Republicans on Jan. 7 and 74% on Jan. 25.
This new poll comes as the most prominent elected Republican, Senate Minority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL, has begun a post-impeachment effort to loosen Trump’s grip on the party. While McConnell wrote in a WSJ op-ed Monday that he was bound by the Constitution to acquit Trump because he’s out of office, he’s also made clear he’s prepared to take on Trump-backed Senate candidates in 2022 when they risk blowing winnable races.
Though the 2024 primary is still far off — who knows what will happen with Trump three months from now, let alone in three years? — he currently swamps any potential rival. Fifty-three percent of Republicans said they would vote for Trump if the primary were held today.
All the other Republican hopefuls are polling in the low single digits, besides Mike Pence, who received 12 percent. Marco Rubio, Tom Cotton, Mitt Romney, Kristi Noem, Larry Hogan, Josh Hawley, Ted Cruz, Tim Scott and Rick Scott all polled below 5%.
Only Donald Trump Jr. and Nikki Haley punched through at 6%.
Overall support for impeachment has remained steady. It increased slightly from 56% in a Jan. 17 poll to 58% after the acquittal. President JOE BIDEN has a 62% approval rating among all surveyed, a number achieved because of his near universal support among Democrats (92%) and a surprisingly strong showing among Republicans (20%).
Conspiracies still linger about whose side the rioters were on. While 83% of Democratic respondents believed (correctly) the rioters were supporters of Trump, Republicans were split: 43% said the rioters were Trump supporters, 29% Trump opponents and 27% were unsure.
We have three years before we have to think too much about this thank goodness. But here’s where it is today:
Donald Trump 53%
Mike Pence 12%
Donald Trump Jr. 6%
Nikki Haley 6%
Mitt Romney 4%
Ted Cruz 4%
Marco Rubio 2%
Mike Pompeo 2%
Josh Hawley 1%
Tom Cotton 1%
Tim Scott 1%
Kristi Noem 1%
Larry Hogan 1%
Rick Scott 0%
Remember, when Trump won the primary in 2016, he never won a majority. Unlike the Democratic primaries, the GOP Primaries are winner take all.