Some new polling on race relations from Monmouth is worth looking at in detail. I think it’s illuminating and we should pay attention:
Most of the country has been following the trial of Derek Chauvin, the former Minneapolis police officer charged with the murder of George Floyd last May. More than 6 in 10 (63%) have heard a lot about it and 31% have heard a little, while just 6% have heard nothing at all. If Chauvin is found guilty of murder, 37% feel this will be a positive step for race relations in the country while 12% say it will be a negative step. However, a plurality of 46% say race relations would not change either way. If he is found innocent of the charges, though, a clear majority (63%) say this will be negative for race relations. Just 5% say it would be positive and 29% say it would not change race relations on the whole.
The full-blown racist cohort is pretty small but I expect that quite a few of them opted for “will make no difference” along with the pessimists (who are somewhat justified…)
There is not a lot of difference between white Americans and people of color on the impact they think these different verdicts would have on race relations. However, there are significant differences among whites based on their partisan identity. Just 13% of whites who identify as Republican or lean to the GOP say a guilty verdict would be a positive outcome for race relations, while a majority (56%) of whites who identify as Democrat or wholly independent feel it would. Differences of opinion on the impact of a not guilty verdict are less stark but still significant. While 56% of white Republicans say Chauvin being let free would be a negative step for race relations, 77% of other whites feel that way.
“Most people feel a not guilty verdict would be more consequential than a guilty verdict in the long run. The key difference is that a conviction may not improve race relations, but the impact of a not guilty outcome would be expected to be largely negative,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. [Note: this analysis reflects public attitudes about the potential impact of a verdict; it is not an assessment of the actual guilt or innocence of the accused in a court of law.]
When you go deeper into these attitudes you can see where the real problem lies:
Nearly half (49%) of the public feels that police officers are more likely to use excessive force against a black person than a white person in similar situations. This is slightly lower than early June, in the immediate aftermath of Floyd’s death, when 57% said the same; but this sentiment is higher than in prior Monmouth polls (34% in 2016 and 33% in 2014). There is a huge gap between white Americans who identify as Republican (12%) and non-Republican whites (77%) on whether police are more likely to use force against a black person.
It’s absurd to think that Blacks aren’t more subject to excessive force. It’s just absurd. All you have to do is look at the attitude expressed by our former Attorney General to see the truth:
“I do think that there appears to be a phenomenon in the country where African Americans feel that they’re treated, when they’re stopped by police, frequently as suspects before they are treated as citizens,” Barr said in an interview with CNN. “I don’t think that that necessarily reflects some deep-seated racism in police departments or in most police officers. …
“I think people operate very frequently according to stereotypes, and I think it takes extra precaution on the part of law enforcement to make sure we don’t reduce people to stereotypes, we treat them as individuals,” he said.
Clearly, he didn’t have even the slightest idea what racism is:
“I think there are some situations where statistics would suggest that they are treated differently. But I don’t think that that’s necessarily racism. Didn’t Jesse Jackson say that when he looks behind him and he sees a group of young Black males walking behind him, he’s more scared than when he sees a group of White youths walking behind him. Does that make him a racist?”
Jackson wasn’t talking about some “black youths.” He was talking about a specific gang that had killed a relative. But whatever…
Thirty percent say that there is more racism among police officers than among other groups in society while 14% say there is less and 51% say there is the same amount. Non-Republican whites (42%) are more likely than Republican whites (10%) to say there is more racism among the police than other groups.
Looking back at nearly a year of protests over police involvement in the deaths of Black civilians, 36% say that the anger of these protesters, regardless of their actual actions, is fully justified. This number is similar to 39% who said the same in the fall but has dropped from 46% in late June and 57% in early June. Another 30% in the current poll say the protestors’ anger is partially justified and 32% say it is not at all justified. Those saying the protestors’ anger is fully justified includes 41% of people of color (including 58% of Black Americans). Among whites, 33% say this anger is fully justified, but that breaks down to just 5% among white Republicans compared with an overwhelming 61% among other whites.
“The partisan lens that separates white Americans on racial issues is astoundingly huge,” said Murray.
62% of whites acknowledging that Black anger is justified is not enough, of course. But the fact that the people who bring that number down includes almost all Republicans is something worth grappling with. All humans are guilty of racism, of course, especially white people who have lived within a privileged sphere their whole lives. And the system itself is racist in so many ways that we don’t even see that it makes it worse.
But it is good news that 61% of whites are at least recognizing this and, hopefully, trying to reckon with it. After all, there are a whole lot of white people in this country.
Most Americans (79%) say racial and ethnic discrimination is a problem in the United States, including 63% who say it is a big problem. Just 20% say it is not a problem. This result is basically unchanged from November (65% big problem), but remains lower than early June (76%) when protests started across the nation. Demographically, 72% of people of color (including 90% of Black Americans) see this as a big problem, while 59% of white Americans agree. Among whites, though, there is a significant difference between those who identify as Republican (32%) and those who identify as Democrat or completely independent (85%).
Fully 9 in 10 (91%) of Americans say it is very important that all races have equal opportunities and 7 in 10 Americans agree that other factors in our society prevent many people in certain racial and ethnic groups from achieving equality even when the law requires equal opportunity (including 45% who strongly agree and 25% who agree somewhat). Similarly, 7 in 10 support efforts to achieve racial equity that go beyond current laws on providing equal opportunities (including 51% who strongly support this idea and 19% who support it somewhat). Support for additional efforts to provide equal opportunities is much more likely to come from non-Republican whites (88%) than Republican whites (42%).
“Most Americans seem to agree that current efforts to create equality do not go far enough, but the partisan gap among whites is a crucial dividing line on what should happen next,” said Murray.
Yes. There are many barriers to making the changes we need, and they come from all of us in one way or another. But it’s important to note that the major impediment to changes is white Republicans.
This is kind of poignantly hopeful, however, and speaks to a the indomitable optimism of American culture. Maybe we aren’t doomed after all:
In the end, most Americans remain basically optimistic about the future of race relations. This includes 23% who are very hopeful and 48% who are somewhat hopeful. On the other hand, more than 1 in 4 are either not too (17%) or not at all (11%) hopeful. The combined number who are not hopeful (28%) is somewhat higher than in polls conducted last year (15% in September and 16% in June).