I’ve been very dour and downbeat recently about the prospects of retaining out democracy in light of the ongoing assaults from the Trump Party. I’ll admit that I am pessimistic at this point.
But there are some positive signs to point to that should not be overlooked. The recent race in New Mexico, a blueish-purple state provides a tiny bit of optimism:
Two weeks before the GOP had its first chance to pick up a seat in Congress since Joe Biden became president, the Republican Party of New Mexico hosted a three-day event dubbed “Operation Freedom.” State Sen. Mark Moores, who was running for the open seat, addressed a crowd of a few hundred party leaders, activists and donors in a hotel conference center. Afterwards, he left the hotel and drove nearly 300 miles back to Albuquerque, where he was actually competing for votes.
New Mexico Republicans had opted to hold their marquee event in Amarillo, Texas.
When the votes came in, Moores had lost to Democratic State Rep. Melanie Stansbury by 24 percentage points—even more than the margin by which Joe Biden had won the district. Nationally, it was seen as a referendum on Biden’s first months in office. But in New Mexico, the story is longer and more complex. For some frustrated New Mexico Republicans, the Amarillo episode and Moores’ loss last Tuesday highlight deeper problems with the state party’s leadership and direction over the last few years—including a turn towards Trumpism that has galvanized some of the party’s base but has seemingly turned off swing voters in the state’s traditionally purple electorate.
As recently as 2016, Republican Gov. Susana Martinez had just won re-election, Republicans had won the state House and Republican Richard Berry was in his second term as Albuquerque mayor. In the years since, the Republican party’s position in Bernalillo County—the anchor of the first congressional district, where the special election was held—has gradually eroded, taking the party’s chances statewide with it. Today, Democrats hold the governor’s mansion and a near-supermajority in the state House.
Part of the GOP’s decline can be attributed to urban-rural polarization, a process set in motion before Donald Trump’s ascent. “The fact is that CD-1 in particular has basically turned into an urban district, and like we see nationally, it’s gotten bluer and bluer,” said Lonna Rae Atkeson, a political science professor at the University of New Mexico and a frequent commentator on local politics.
It wasn’t so long ago that centrist Republican Heather Wilson represented the first district for ten years, despite Democratic victories at the presidential level in 2000 and 2004. New Mexico Republicans remain divided on whether or not the first district is winnable for their party in today’s environment, but for many, the yawning margin last week speaks volumes about the GOP’s overall strength in the state.
“The party had every incentive to try to make it reasonably close,” said Rod Adair, a Republican consultant and demographer who represented a southeast New Mexico state senate seat from 1997 to 2013. “The striking thing about the results is that you would expect, in a special election, for the party opposite the White House to get a little bit of a bump,” he added. “It was actually worse.”
Moores, one of only two Republicans left representing Albuquerque voters in either chamber of the state legislature, even lost his own state senate district by 3.5 points, according to the special election’s unofficial results.
Does this reflect the dynamic in any of the other swing states? I have no idea. I guess it depends on the party organizations and just how looney the right wing has become there. But it matters a lot for the future if at least a few have similar dynamics at play that may not be entirely obvious until people go to vote.
It’s a thin reed, I know. But I don’t think it’s healthy to just assume that these neo-fascist loons have it in the bag simply because Washington appears to be unable to offer up any countervailing power to stop them. Perhaps the people themselves will do it.