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Understanding 2020

100 years after 1918 pandemic, flu still top ID threat

San Francisco, 1918 — prior to being completely overwhelmed

Dozens of partitions and cots are set up on a large convention center floor.
2020 — New York City — fortunately not needed but some indication of how close we came to repeating 1918

I’ve spent the past year reading a small library of books re: pandemics. Two, so far, stand out.

The Premonition by Michael Lewis tells the story of those public health officials and researchers who saw 2020 coming but, for one reason or another, were sidelined. Trump and trumpism were a major factor, of course (likely8 the major factor) but by the time 2020 rolled around, Lewis makes a convincing case that the CDC was already dysfunctional and there was no federal agency that could respond effectively to the early days of a pandemic before the virus veered out of control.

A character-driven book that is all but impossible to put down, you will long remember Charity Dean, the assistant director of the California Department of Public Health when Covid struck. A perfect made-for-Hollywood heroine (at least, as Lewis portrays her).

The Great Influenza by John M. Barry is easily the most frightening book I’ve ever read — all the more horrible because it’s true. The 1918 pandemic began in Kansas, wreaked much of its havoc around the world in 12 short weeks in the fall of 1918 and was responsible for roughly 500,000 to 850,000 deaths in the US (estimates range between 50 million and 100 million deaths worldwide). In short, 1918 was a far greater calamity than even 2020. The book goes into extensive detail about what happened and how American researchers back then raced desperately to understand what caused influenza and figure out how to fight it.

At least as disturbing as the immediate death toll from the 1918 pandemic were the mental health consequences which had a profound affect on world history. Woodrow Wilson — who, at least as portrayed in this book, was an appallingly bad president — contracted influenza during the WW I peace discussions in Paris. His personality changed. Before getting sick, he was adamantly opposed to the draconian punishments France wanted to mete on Germany. After recovering from his influenza, Wilson essentially acceded to the French demands. The awful terms of this accord seeded a dangerous combination of economic hardship and profound resentment in Germany, both of which directly led to the rise of extremism in the fragile democracy and the eventual takeover of the government by the Nazis.

The Great Influenza is painful to read but it is very well written. For insight into what the world went through back then, and for putting into perspective what we just experienced, it is, I believe, an essential read. I’m very glad I read it and hope you will, too.

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