In mid-October 2020, top Pentagon officials grew concerned about intelligence they’d seen. It showed the Chinese were consuming their own intelligence that had made them concerned about the possibility of a surprise U.S. strike against China, three sources familiar with the situation tell Axios.
One of the sources said: “I think they [the Chinese] were getting bad intelligence… a combination of ‘wag the dog’ conspiracy thinking and bad intel from bad sources.”
Then-Defense Secretary Mark Esper worried the Chinese were misreading the situation and that their misperception could lead to a conflict nobody wanted.
Esper directed his policy office to issue a backchannel message to the Chinese to reassure them the U.S. had no intention of seeking a military confrontation. The message: Don’t over-read what you’re seeing in Washington; we have no intention to attack; and let’s keep lines of communication open.
These backchannel communications were handled a couple of levels below Esper, one of the sources said. U.S. officials involved thought the Chinese received the initial message well. Milley followed up later in the month with a call to his Chinese counterpart to reiterate the message, two of the sources confirmed.
It’s unclear whether anyone at the Pentagon told President Trump or the White House what they were doing.
Around the same time Esper learned of the Chinese concerns, he also learned that a long-planned deployment to Asia had been moved up a couple of weeks earlier than previously planned, to accommodate COVID quarantine protocols.
Esper told colleagues the last thing the Chinese needed to see at that moment — when they were already misreading Washington’s intentions — was more planes, according to one of the sources.
Esper went so far as to delay this long planned exercise in Asia until after the election, to lower the temperature.
Axios has not independently confirmed that Milley told his Chinese counterpart he would give him a heads up if the U.S. planned to attack China.
One source familiar with Milley’s conversations with his Chinese counterpart would only broadly characterize them as Milley saying something to the effect of: “We’ll both know if we’re going to war… there’s not gonna be some surprise attack and there’s no reason for you to do a pre-emptive strike.”
That sounds a little different don’t you think?
Now read this series of tweets from the right wing reporter Josh Rogin being spun by the Trumpers:
Senior Trump admin national security official to me on Gen. Milley’s reported secret calls to Chinese generals:
“It was dangerous for Mark Milley to be doing freelance diplomacy on China without involving any of the other senior officials dealing with China at the time…”
“Milley was making these phone calls at a time when the U.S. government was in the middle of very complicated discussions with and actions against the PRC. For him to take this sort of action without any interagency coordination is astonishing…”
“…The risk is [Milley] could have caused the Chinese to miscalculate and take some sort of diplomatic, economic or military action with far ranging consequences, because he was giving the wrong signal, having no understanding of the context in which he was making the call.”
Originally tweeted by Josh Rogin (@joshrogin) on September 14, 2021.
I know you are but what am I?
Later that day…
Senior Defense Official confirms to me @axios reporting on Esper’s role in China calls.
“Milley was absolutely not going rogue. Esper took the initiative on this in October, Esper asked his own policy folks to backchannel the message. Milley’s message followed Esper’s.”To be clear, Esper’s message to other countries — conveyed by OSD staff — was one of general reassurance and keeping lines of communication open. It did not include specifics reported in Woodward’s book about a purported Milley promise to warn China before any attack.
Originally tweeted by Josh Rogin (@joshrogin) on September 15, 2021.
Aaaand:
Originally tweeted by Josh Rogin (@joshrogin) on September 15, 2021.
Rogin comes back:
I’m told this (what Jennifer tweeted) is not true. Milley did not properly coordinate: SAO: “When Milley did these calls, it was with Joint Staff, and nobody from OSD participated in it. If someone from State Department was on the call, the Joint Staff should say who it is.”
What a mess.
Here’s a statement from Milley spokesman Col. Dave Butler:
The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs regularly communicates with Chiefs of Defense across the world, including with China and Russia. These conversations remain vital to improving mutual understanding of U.S. national security interests, reducing tensions, providing clarity and avoiding unintended consequences or conflict.
His calls with the Chinese and others in October and January were in keeping with these duties and responsibilities conveying reassurance in order to maintain strategic stability. All calls from the Chairman to his counterparts, including those reported, are staffed, coordinated and communicated with the Department of Defense and the interagency.
Also in keeping with his responsibilities as senior military advisor to the President and Secretary of Defense, General Milley frequently conducts meetings with uniformed leaders across the Services to ensure all leaders are aware of current issues.
The meeting regarding nuclear weapons protocols was to remind uniformed leaders in the Pentagon of the long-established and robust procedures in light of media reporting on the subject.
General Milley continues to act and advise within his authority in the lawful tradition of civilian control of the military and his oath to the Constitution.
I don’t know if the Woodward book doesn’t bother to make this context know or if the new reports yesterday didn’t bother to include it. Or maybe Milley is just an inveterate liar, was totally freelancing for his own reasons and the Pentagon and others are backing up his play. I assume we will soon find out?