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Month: September 2021

COVID radicalism is not popular

Here you go:

Those of us who live in places where COVID is not running rampant are grateful for that fact. We would really like it if our fellow Californians would not keep trying to kill the rest of us. The Republican frontrunner in the failed recall had pledged to repeal all mandates for masks, vaccines and any other mitigation requirements. No thanks.

By the way:

According to the CDC’s color-coded map, all the other states have fallen back into the worst category, red, as California advances to the second-highest risk category, orange, along with Puerto Rico. Ahead of the latest wave of infections in July, the state was classified as yellow, indicating a lower level of transmission classified as “moderate.” In June, it was blue, which signals “low” virus spread.

Pan credited widespread adaptation of health orders and California’s impressive vaccination rate — about 68% of the state’s residents are now fully vaccinated — as factors in driving case rates down in the face of delta.

“Our mitigation measures, like masking, are going to work regardless of the variant,” Pan said during a roundtable discussion with medical professionals on Tuesday.

The United States as a whole remains at a “high” level of community transmission, according to the CDC, with a seven-day average of 248 new cases per 100,000 — more than two times higher than the threshold of 100 cases for the classification. To reach the “substantial” category, average case rates must dip between 50 and 99 per 100,000.

California reported an average of 9,281 cases a day for the seven-day period that ended Tuesday, compared to about 13,400 cases a day two weeks ago. Los Angeles County did not report any cases over the weekend due to a planned technical outage.

There are 6,810 people hospitalized with a confirmed case statewide, a 18.4% decrease over the same time period, according to an analysis of data provided by the state health department by The Chronicle.

Thanks Gavin!

This could change, of course. As we know, the virus is extremely contagious and unless everyone is vaccinated, community spread can happen even in places that are doing the right things. But there is little likelihood that we’ll be as bad as Florida or Mississippi because our government is willing to institute mandates. We’re all wearing masks inside buildings again and I don’t see a lot of complaints about it. It’s a small price to pay to be able to live our lives without terror that we’re going to get the virus or spread it to some kids or other who are immunocompromised.

Big Lies and Little Lies

During the Trump years, many people including yours truly, questioned the president’s intelligence, competence and mental stability. I would suggest that we were simply observing the reality we were confronted with. After all we had a president who went around bragging that he was a genius because his uncle taught at MIT and suggesting that we might want to look into using household disinfectant to “clean the lungs.” There were numerous incredibly such strange moments. But I don’t recall any Democratic Senator doing something like this:

It went on and on like this as if something truly disturbing had happened. It didn’t.

Dana Milbank unpacked it:

After yet another back-and-forth on the matter, Blinken finally told the senator: “I really don’t know what you are referring to.”

There’s good reason for that: It didn’t happen.

The episode is worth unpacking because it shows, in miniature, how misinformation infects the Republican Party, rapidly spreads through partisan media and contaminates elected GOP leaders — who amplify and defend the falsehood, even when it’s shown to be wrong. This is how lies are born.

(In this case, it wasn’t even a useful lie. By making it his lead-off attack, Risch distracted attention from the Biden administration’s botched pullout from Afghanistan, a serious matter. Instead, Risch used the forum to portray Biden as senile, based on rubbish.)

The story begins with the White House’s Monday press schedule, which announced that Biden would receive a wildfire briefing in Boise. The press coverage was listed as “out-of-town pool spray at the top.” In English, this means that a group of the traveling White House press corps is admitted to the event at the beginning and then brought out after journalists get some video and audio. It’s a routine practice presidents have used for decades. And that’s exactly what happened Monday. According to the pool report, the group was escorted in at 12:08 p.m. for the start of the briefing and “escorted out at roughly 12:35” — a relatively long spray.

That would have been the end of the matter, except that somebody in the research department at the RNC, watching the White House’s livestream, decided that something nefarious had happened. “White House feed cuts out as Biden starts to ask a question,” the RNC tweeted.

Rupert Murdoch’s New York Post, crediting the RNC for the scoop, published an article under the headline, “White House livestream cuts Biden mid-sentence as he goes off script.”

“An official White House livestream of President Biden’s remarks was abruptly cut off mid-sentence on Monday,” it began, linking Monday’s “incident” to White House officials’ “fear he’ll veer wildly off-message.”

All that was left was for Risch to trumpet the fabrication — and then to demand to know why Blinken was “unaware this is actually happening.”

Had Risch been duped, or was he deliberately parroting disinformation? I explained to Risch’s aides what had actually happened and asked whether there would be a clarification. There would not be. “Who cut off the president? Please advise,” repeated Risch spokeswoman Suzanne Wrasse.

So Risch knows the facts but perpetuates the fiction. If only somebody could “press the button” and cut off the GOP lie machine before it destroys us all.

And Senator Risch should be ashamed of himself. He’s despicable.

CNN’s Daniel Dale:

At length, Sen. Jim Risch absurdly said someone at the White House yesterday hit a “button” to stop Biden from talking.

No. There was a planned “pool spray,” in which press/cam is allowed in for brief remarks at a meeting’s start; it ended as Biden began questioning officials.

Prompted by a Republican National Committee tweet, right-wing media covered this like the White House was nervously censoring Biden as he went off script. In fact, as you’ve probably seen, it’s entirely normal for the press to be ushered out/the cam to be shut off mid-meeting.

Also, like, these are the words Biden said before the feed ended: “Can I ask you a question? One of the things that I’ve been working on, with some others, is…” It wasn’t like he started telling some crazy story. (Anyway this is all ridiculous.)

Originally tweeted by Daniel Dale (@ddale8) on September 14, 2021.

You’ve seen this happen many times when some functionary starts screaming at the top of her lungs “all right move out, get out, move along!!!!”

Everything is so stupid right now.

The culture war’s common cause

This piece by JIll Filipovic about the history of the abortion wars is an important read as we ponder what to do next about this issue since it’s clear the right wing Trump Court majority is going to overturn Roe vs Wade one way or the other.

With abortion functionally outlawed in Texas (at least for the time being), abortion rights advocates are gearing up for the potential reversal of Roe v. Wade, while abortion opponents are scrambling to bring Texas-style abortion bounty laws to red states across America (and, I would imagine, to conservative nations outside of America’s borders). That makes it an important time to assess how abortion became the contentious political issue it is, and how it became such a uniting force for the right — including the get-off-my-lawn libertarians who claim to value individual freedoms above all else, but don’t qualify pregnant women as individuals.

Thomas Edsall touches on some of that history in the Times this week. The first thing to know is that abortion was chosen to be a partisan political issue by conservative activists, and has not always been nearly this divisive. When the oldest Millennials were being born, pollsters were finding significant opposition to and support of abortion rights in both the Democratic and Republican parties. That changed in part because of waning support (particularly among liberals) for unvarnished racism and segregation. As public opposition to the civil rights movement softened — as racism persisted, but as it became less socially acceptable to be pro-segregation, and as racist dogwhistles took the place of George Wallace’s bullhorn — conservatives needed a new issue that would prove just as politically useful and just as energizing to their white base as racial integration had long been.

Abortion was it.

Abortion rights were central to the feminist movement, which engendered significant religious and right-wing outrage. Abortion was central to women’s abilities to go to school, enter the workforce, and have basic life independence, all of which threatened the (largely) male monopoly on working for pay and the attendant financial freedom and personal power. And conservative activists saw the potential for Evangelicals, some of whom had previously been fine with abortion but were very upset about racial integration and women’s growing power, to connect with anti-abortion Catholics and form a religious coalition centered on forcing women to stay pregnant and give birth against their will.

Even in the 1980s, this was all relatively new. As Edsall points out, just two years before the Supreme Court decided Roe in 1973, the Southern Baptist Convention resolved “to work for legislation that will allow the possibility of abortion under such conditions as rape, incest, clear evidence of severe fetal deformity, and carefully ascertained evidence of the likelihood of damage to the emotional, mental, and physical health of the mother.”

A few decades later — just last year — they were sounding a very different tune: “We affirm that the murder of preborn children is a crime against humanity that must be punished equally under the law,” a 2020 Southern Baptist resolution said. Read that again: abortion is a crime against humanity that must be punished equally under the law.

The Southern Baptists went from advocating for allowing safe abortion for rape survivors or a threat to the pregnant woman’s health to advocating that women who end their pregnancies be put in jail — or be put to death. Those are, after all, the punishments under law doled out to murderers and those who commit crimes against humanity.

That total reversal suggests that opposition to abortion isn’t simply about age-old moral codes, or even the word of the Bible and scripture. It’s about conservative strategy.

Indeed it is. Filipovic’s piece goes on to discuss how the right was apoplectic about desegregation but was finding it more and more difficult to openly organize around it. She quotes religion historian Randall Ballmer:

“So how did evangelicals become interested in abortion?” Balmer writes. “As nearly as I can tell from my conversation with Weyrich, during a conference call with Falwell and other evangelicals strategizing about how to retain their tax exemptions, someone suggested that they might have the makings of a political movement and wondered what other issues would work for them. Several suggestions followed, and then a voice on the line said, ‘How about abortion?’”

Filipovic adds:

Evangelicals were still angry they couldn’t racially segregate their institutions and still get tax breaks. But “the right to segregate” no longer had the wide appeal it once did. “The right to life,” though — that was a winner.

I’ve told this story here on the blog over the years but I think it’s even more salient today as we see just how intrinsic race is to all of our culture war battles. Now that the right to abortion is truly in serious danger it’s more important than ever to understand exactly what brought us to this place.

Now, for the rest of the story

Axios reports:

In mid-October 2020, top Pentagon officials grew concerned about intelligence they’d seen. It showed the Chinese were consuming their own intelligence that had made them concerned about the possibility of a surprise U.S. strike against China, three sources familiar with the situation tell Axios.

One of the sources said: “I think they [the Chinese] were getting bad intelligence… a combination of ‘wag the dog’ conspiracy thinking and bad intel from bad sources.”

Then-Defense Secretary Mark Esper worried the Chinese were misreading the situation and that their misperception could lead to a conflict nobody wanted.

Esper directed his policy office to issue a backchannel message to the Chinese to reassure them the U.S. had no intention of seeking a military confrontation. The message: Don’t over-read what you’re seeing in Washington; we have no intention to attack; and let’s keep lines of communication open.

These backchannel communications were handled a couple of levels below Esper, one of the sources said. U.S. officials involved thought the Chinese received the initial message well. Milley followed up later in the month with a call to his Chinese counterpart to reiterate the message, two of the sources confirmed.

It’s unclear whether anyone at the Pentagon told President Trump or the White House what they were doing.

Around the same time Esper learned of the Chinese concerns, he also learned that a long-planned deployment to Asia had been moved up a couple of weeks earlier than previously planned, to accommodate COVID quarantine protocols.

Esper told colleagues the last thing the Chinese needed to see at that moment — when they were already misreading Washington’s intentions — was more planes, according to one of the sources.

Esper went so far as to delay this long planned exercise in Asia until after the election, to lower the temperature.

Axios has not independently confirmed that Milley told his Chinese counterpart he would give him a heads up if the U.S. planned to attack China.

One source familiar with Milley’s conversations with his Chinese counterpart would only broadly characterize them as Milley saying something to the effect of: “We’ll both know if we’re going to war… there’s not gonna be some surprise attack and there’s no reason for you to do a pre-emptive strike.”

That sounds a little different don’t you think?

Now read this series of tweets from the right wing reporter Josh Rogin being spun by the Trumpers:

Senior Trump admin national security official to me on Gen. Milley’s reported secret calls to Chinese generals:

“It was dangerous for Mark Milley to be doing freelance diplomacy on China without involving any of the other senior officials dealing with China at the time…”

“Milley was making these phone calls at a time when the U.S. government was in the middle of very complicated discussions with and actions against the PRC. For him to take this sort of action without any interagency coordination is astonishing…”

“…The risk is [Milley] could have caused the Chinese to miscalculate and take some sort of diplomatic, economic or military action with far ranging consequences, because he was giving the wrong signal, having no understanding of the context in which he was making the call.”

Originally tweeted by Josh Rogin (@joshrogin) on September 14, 2021.

I know you are but what am I?

Later that day…

Senior Defense Official confirms to me @axios reporting on Esper’s role in China calls.
“Milley was absolutely not going rogue. Esper took the initiative on this in October, Esper asked his own policy folks to backchannel the message. Milley’s message followed Esper’s.”

To be clear, Esper’s message to other countries — conveyed by OSD staff — was one of general reassurance and keeping lines of communication open. It did not include specifics reported in Woodward’s book about a purported Milley promise to warn China before any attack.

Originally tweeted by Josh Rogin (@joshrogin) on September 15, 2021.

Aaaand:

Originally tweeted by Josh Rogin (@joshrogin) on September 15, 2021.

Rogin comes back:

I’m told this (what Jennifer tweeted) is not true. Milley did not properly coordinate: SAO: “When Milley did these calls, it was with Joint Staff, and nobody from OSD participated in it. If someone from State Department was on the call, the Joint Staff should say who it is.”

What a mess.

Here’s a statement from Milley spokesman Col. Dave Butler:

The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs regularly communicates with Chiefs of Defense across the world, including with China and Russia. These conversations remain vital to improving mutual understanding of U.S. national security interests, reducing tensions, providing clarity and avoiding unintended consequences or conflict.

His calls with the Chinese and others in October and January were in keeping with these duties and responsibilities conveying reassurance in order to maintain strategic stability. All calls from the Chairman to his counterparts, including those reported, are staffed, coordinated and communicated with the Department of Defense and the interagency.

Also in keeping with his responsibilities as senior military advisor to the President and Secretary of Defense, General Milley frequently conducts meetings with uniformed leaders across the Services to ensure all leaders are aware of current issues.

The meeting regarding nuclear weapons protocols was to remind uniformed leaders in the Pentagon of the long-established and robust procedures in light of media reporting on the subject.

General Milley continues to act and advise within his authority in the lawful tradition of civilian control of the military and his oath to the Constitution.

I don’t know if the Woodward book doesn’t bother to make this context know or if the new reports yesterday didn’t bother to include it. Or maybe Milley is just an inveterate liar, was totally freelancing for his own reasons and the Pentagon and others are backing up his play. I assume we will soon find out?

How close did we come to total catastrophe?

From the moment Donald Trump won the presidency, I was worried about the possibility of a foreign adversary making a tragic miscalculation or seeing an opportunity to challenge the U.S. or one of its allies on the basis of Trump’s ignorance of America’s unique position in global security. It wasn’t that I necessarily thought that he would launch a war willy-nilly, although that was certainly within his power, I instead worried that other countries could misunderstand his bluster and erratic personality. Now a soon-to-be-released book by veteran D.C. reporters Bob Woodward and Robert Costa, appropriately called “Peril”, suggests that was no idle worry.

According to reports on what’s revealed in the book by various news organizations, in the waning days of his presidency, Trump’s unstable behavior caused serious alarm in the Chinese government. The Washington Post reports that after reviewing intelligence reports, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark A Milley called his counterpart in the Chinese military, Gen. Li Zuocheng, to assure him “that the American government is stable and everything is going to be okay. We are not going to attack or conduct any kinetic operations against you.” Milley reportedly stressed the long-standing relationship he had with his counterpart and even told him that he would alert him in advance if the U.S. decided to attack. That phone call reportedly went on for an hour and a half.

After the January 6th insurrection, Milley once more got on the phone to reassure a very rattled Li that the U.S. wasn’t coming apart. “We are 100 percent steady. Everything’s fine. But democracy can be sloppy sometimes.” Sloppy indeed.

The New York Times’ Peter Baker and the New Yorker’s Susan Glasser also reveal in an upcoming book that General Milley had been gravely concerned that Trump seemed intent upon taking military action against Iran in the final days of 2020. Woodward and Costa likewise report that after a November meeting, CIA director Gina Haspel was equally troubled, telling Milley, “this is a highly dangerous situation. We are going to lash out for his ego?”

We also knew that Milley had become convinced that Trump was becoming more and more unstable and was looking for a “Reichstag Moment” as a rationale to go forward with overturning the election. Glasser reported that “Milley had, since late in 2020, been having morning phone meetings, at 8 a.m. on most days, with the White House chief of staff, Mark Meadows, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, in the hopes of getting the country safely through to Joe Biden‘s Inauguration.”

Now “Peril” reveals that after January 6th and a phone call from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi — in which she demanded to know whether or not there were any precautions being taken to prevent Trump, whom she called “crazy,” from unilaterally launching a nuclear strike — Milley convened a meeting of senior officers and told them that in the event of an order to launch nuclear weapons. “No matter what you are told, you do the procedure. You do the process. And I’m part of that procedure!”

That “I’m part of that procedure” has caused an uproar as well as his contacts with China’s General Li. According to experts on the nuclear procedures, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs has no role aside from advising the president in such decisions, so if Milley meant that they could not proceed without his order, he was flat wrong. But Glasser’s earlier reporting has it a little bit different saying that Milley “told them to make sure there were no unlawful orders from Trump and not to carry out any such orders without calling him first.” Pentagon sources say he never said to violate procedure. It will likely take some more investigating to determine exactly if or how much Milley defied the normal line of authority.

The calls to Li may not have been quite as unusual, contrary to claims by outraged Republicans.  Apparently, flag officers in these positions do have conversations with one another although the fact that the president wasn’t informed and he promised to give a heads up if the U.S. decided to attack are unusual, to say the least. But I have to say that I’m grateful someone got on the horn to reassure the Chinese government that the U.S. was not on the verge of attacking them. Obviously, none of Trump’s inner circle were willing even though they had the same intelligence reports. Nonetheless, this erosion of the constitutional requirement for civilian control of the military is almost as frightening as Trump’s volatile behavior. Almost.

Milley became convinced that Trump was dangerously mentally unstable and he took it upon himself to, as “Peril’s” authors put it, “pull a Schlesinger” which refers to the last time a Republican president started to buckle under the pressure of his own mistakes and left office in disgrace. That was in August of 1974 during the final days of the Nixon administration when Secretary of Defense James Schlesinger reportedly ordered certain presidential orders — especially those related to nuclear arms — to be cleared by himself personally or National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger. (How comforting.) This was supposedly after Nixon had told him “I can go into my office and pick up the telephone, and in 25 minutes 70 million people will be dead.” This was the kind of comment Trump made on a regular basis:

And keep in mind that after the election Trump had abruptly fired Acting Secretary of Defense Mark Esper and installed a loyalist in his place along with a handful of other henchmen in strategic posts in the Pentagon. He’d pushed out others at the NSA and the CIA and attempted to replace them with cronies. Nobody knew exactly what they were up to but it was very weird for a president to do that in the last two months of his presidency. Even former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is quoted in “Peril” saying, “he’s in a very dark place right now.” You can’t blame Milley or anyone else for fearing the worst.

The Daily Beast reported that Trump called around to allies on Tuesday telling them to go on TV and say that Milley should be arrested for treason. GOP officials are also calling for his head. I’ll leave it to the experts to say whether or not he violated the chain of command so egregiously that he has to go.

But I will say this: It’s a miracle that we have managed to survive the nuclear age so far with the biggest nuclear arsenal on earth in the hands of irrational leaders like Richard Nixon and Donald Trump. We’ve been lucky so far but I doubt that luck will hold out forever. If we cannot rid the world of these terrifying weapons as we should, or always elect sane, competent people to the presidency as we apparently cannot, the least we could do is find some way to ensure that one unstable person doesn’t have the sole power to unleash them. This system must be reformed before something unthinkable happens.

Salon

What’s Manchin’s deal?

Photo via Sen. Macnhin’s office.

Marc Elias of Democracy Docket yesterday analyzed Sen. Joe Manchin’s compromise voting rights bill and found it … surprisingly acceptable. And in some ways “an improvement.”

Elias explains:

Much of the new bill is familiar to those concerned about voting rights in our country. The new bill establishes minimum requirements for how states conduct federal elections. It expands voter registration, requires a minimum number of days and hours for early voting and creates a nationwide right to vote by mail.

With respect to voting by mail specifically, the bill rolls back many of the Republicans’ latest disenfranchisement schemes. For example, the bill forbids states from requiring notarization or witnesses to vote by mail. It also requires states to count ballots cast by Election Day if they are received up to seven days after the election. It provides for a free postage system for returned ballots, requires states to notify voters whose ballots are rejected due to a signature omission or mismatch and creates an easy way for voters to cure those ballots.

What makes this new bill exceptional, however, is its attention to several small, but important details that have been raised in the last few months. For example, it requires states to count provisional ballots cast by eligible voters in the wrong precinct but in the correct county. It also imposes a 30-minute limit on wait times for in-person voting. And, in a nod to a significant court victory in Florida, it requires polling locations on college campuses.

To prevent voter intimidation, it prevents frivolous challenges to voter qualifications. This provision alone would undo the worst provision of the Georgia suppression law. It bans the pernicious practice of voter caging as a technique to illegally purge voters. It restricts who can serve as poll observers and how close they can be to a voter (no closer than eight feet). It prevents states from outlawing the provision of food and water to voters waiting in line to vote.

Manchin’s bill imposes standards on gerrymandering as well:

But, the crown jewels of the Freedom to Vote Act are contained in the judicial review provisions. The bill not only creates a specific “right to vote” in federal elections but guarantees it. Under the new bill, states would be prohibited from enacting laws or policies that are “retrogressive” — i.e., that make voting harder. In addition, the bill would subject significant state restrictions on the right to vote to heightened judicial scrutiny. In another small but important improvement, the new bill allows for virtually all voting rights cases to be filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, which has the promise of creating a national, uniform pro-democracy jurisprudence.

Put simply, if the new bill is enacted, more citizens will be able to register to vote, vote in person and by mail and have their votes counted. And, those of us fighting suppression laws in court will have the tools necessary to achieve fast, consistent victories for voters when states fail to follow the law.

As drafted, the bill is not without flaws, Elias explains, but no omissions or flaws are deal breakers. “All can be fixed as the legislative process proceeds.” Even while acceding to the demands of voter ID proponents, the bill expands acceptable forms of ID so broad as to render the impact all but moot.

None of that makes any difference if Manchin, failing to find 10 Senate Republicans to join him in passing it, would rather watch his bill go down in flames rather than allow a “carve out” on the filibuster he refuses to extinguish.

Ed Kilgore explores how that might work (New York Magazine):

Manchin explicitly ruled out supporting a voting rights carve-out in a July meeting with Texas Democrats who had flown to Washington to ask for Senate action to preempt the voter suppression law the GOP legislature in their state was trying to (and subsequently did) enact. But if Senate Republicans continue to refuse to consider any voting rights legislation, and Manchin and others grow frustrated, the carve-out remains the least obtrusive measure for dealing with the problem without disturbing the underlying “tradition” any more than it has already been disturbed by earlier actions. The real key is whether all Democrats share the view of most Democrats that preemptive federal voting rights legislation is both a moral imperative and a practical necessity. It’s not something anyone can afford to be too mush-mouthed or lily-livered about in the current political environment. And the time for action is right now, before the Democratic trifecta in Washington becomes a thing of the past, which could very well happen next year.

Time is running out to save our democracy from a Republican Party that has rejected it.

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1438141695326105605?s=20

Designed to segregate

An old story gets retold this morning. For Gen-whatevers playing catch-up, it needs retelling. When the Supreme Court decided Roe v. Wade in 1973, the issue made nary a splash among religious conservatives. It took six years for it to become the rallying cry of the religious right. They needed one more palatable than “Stop the tax on segregation.”

With help from Katherine Stewart (“The Power Worshipers), Thomas Edsall explains:

In 1978, the hostile reaction to an I.R.S. proposal to impose taxes on churches running segregated private schools (“seg academies” for the children of white southerners seeking to avoid federally mandated school integration orders) provided the opportunity to mobilize born again and evangelical parishioners through the creation of the Moral Majority. As Stewart argues, Viguerie, Weyrich and others on the right were determined to find an issue that could bring together a much larger constituency:

As Weyrich understood, building a new movement around the burning issue of defending the tax advantages of racist schools wasn’t going to be a viable strategy on the national stage. “Stop the tax on segregation” just wasn’t going to inspire the kind of broad-based conservative counterrevolution that Weyrich envisioned.

After long and contentious debate, conservative strategists came to a consensus, Stewart writes: “They landed upon the one surprising word that would supply the key to the political puzzle of the age: ‘abortion.’ ”

In an email, Stewart expanded on her argument. Abortion opponents

are more likely to be committed to a patriarchal worldview in which the control of reproduction, and female sexuality in particular, is thought to be central in maintaining a gender hierarchy that (as they see it) sustains the family, which they claim is under threat from secular, modern forces.

Even not-so-keen observers of conservative politics know this to be true even if misogyny is hardly limited to the right, religious or otherwise.

Fifty years ago, the Southern Baptist Convention was more liberal on abortion. In 1971, Baptists passed a resolution accepting “abortion under such conditions as rape, incest, clear evidence of severe fetal deformity, and carefully ascertained evidence of the likelihood of damage to the emotional, mental, and physical health of the mother.”

What changed their minds, as Dartmouth religion professor Randall Balmer explained in 2014, was another Supreme Court case (Politico):

On June 30, 1971, the United States District Court for the District of Columbia issued its ruling in the case, now  Green v. Connally (John Connally had replaced David Kennedy as secretary of the Treasury). The decision upheld the new IRS policy: “Under the Internal Revenue Code, properly construed, racially discriminatory private schools are not entitled to the Federal tax exemption provided for charitable, educational institutions, and persons making gifts to such schools are not entitled to the deductions provided in case of gifts to charitable, educational institutions.”

Balmer’s Politico essay continued:

The Green v. Connally ruling provided a necessary first step: It captured the attention of evangelical leaders especially as the IRS began sending questionnaires to church-related “segregation academies,” including Falwell’s own Lynchburg Christian School, inquiring about their racial policies. Falwell was furious. “In some states,” he famously complained, “It’s easier to open a massage parlor than a Christian school.”

One such school, Bob Jones University—a fundamentalist college in Greenville, South Carolina—was especially obdurate. The IRS had sent its first letter to Bob Jones University in November 1970 to ascertain whether or not it discriminated on the basis of race. The school responded defiantly: It did not admit African Americans.

When after some back and forth finally the IRS withdrew the tax-exempt status for Bob Jones University in 1976, “That was really the major issue that got us all involved,” a school administrator told Balmer.

Balmer wrote of a 1990 meeting in a Washington hotel conference room featuring a who’s-who of religious right figures: Ralph Reed of Christian Coalition; Donald Wildmon from the American Family Association; Richard Land of the Southern Baptist Convention; Ed Dobson, one of Jerry Falwell’s acolytes at Moral Majority; Richard Viguerie, the conservative direct-mail mogul; and Paul Weyrich, cofounder of the Heritage Foundation and architect of the religious right.

Weyrich openly declared that Roe had nothing to do with the formation of the religious right:

No, Weyrich insisted, what got the movement going as a political movement was the attempt on the part of the Internal Revenue Service to rescind the tax-exempt status of Bob Jones University because of its racially discriminatory policies, including a ban on interracial dating that the university maintained until 2000.

Edsall continues:

In an email, Balmer wrote, “Opposition to abortion became a convenient diversion — a godsend, really — to distract from what actually motivated their political activism: the defense of racial segregation in evangelical institutions.”

The same is true, Ballmer continued, of many politicians who have become adamant foes of abortion:

At a time when open racism was becoming unfashionable, these politicians needed a more high-minded issue, one that would not compel them to surrender their fundamental political orientation. And of course the beauty of defending a fetus is that the fetus demands nothing in return — housing, health care, education — so it’s a fairly low-risk advocacy.

Surging rights-advocacy movements in the 1970s provoked a conservative backlash, one re-energized decades later by the gut punch of 9/11 and the election of the nation’s first Black president.

David Leege, professor emeritus of political science at Notre Dame, has an additional explanation for the process linking racial animosity and abortion. In an email, he wrote:

For the target populations — evangelical Protestants — whom Viguerie, Weyrich, and Falwell sought to mobilize, racial animosity and abortion attitudes are related but mainly in an indirect way, through aversion toward intellectual elites. The people perceived to be pushing government’s role in equal opportunity and racial integration were now the same as those pushing permissive abortion laws, namely, the highly educated from New England, banking, universities, the Northern cities, and elsewhere.

In short, Leege wrote, “although the policy domain may differ, the hated people are the same.”

Conservative Christians needed a wedge issue to mobilize their ranks to push back against evolving social mores that threatened their world view. Conservative leaders fabricated one and for the most part re-wrote the history of how it came about.

Gen-whatevers getting up to speed in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision on Sept. 1 not to block a Texas law prohibiting most abortions should not buy the right’s preferred narrative. Most of the right’s foot soldiers don’t know the issue’s real history either.

Rigged unless they win

That was 2016. He accepted the results although he went on to say that he also won the popular vote but was cheated out of it because millions of undocumented workers” voted. You know what happened in 2020.

Today the Big Lie is the GOP’s only organizing principle:

Republican Larry Elder appealed on Monday to his supporters to use an online form to report fraud, which claimed it had “detected fraud” in the “results” of the California recall election “resulting in Governor Gavin Newsom being reinstated as governor.”

The only problem: On Monday when the link was live on Elder’s campaign site, the election hadn’t even happened yet. No results had been released. And Elder was still campaigning to replace Newsom as governor.

“Statistical analyses used to detect fraud in elections held in 3rd-world nations (such as Russia, Venezuela, and Iran) have detected fraud in California resulting in Governor Gavin Newsom being reinstated as governor,” the site reads. “The primary analytical tool used was Benford’s Law and can be readily reproduced.”

The site added on Monday afternoon a disclaimer saying it was “Paid For By Larry Elder Ballot Measure Committee Recall Newsom Committee,” with major funding from Elder’s gubernatorial campaign.

The most recent polls show Newsom is likely to survive the attempt to remove him from office in Tuesday’s recall election. Elder and other Republicans have already started chalking up a potential loss to baseless allegations of voter fraud, following the script written by former President Donald Trump.

“This is really becoming the standard GOP playbook,” said Lee Drutman, a senior fellow at the New America think tank who studies democracy. “This is democracy 101. If you don’t have elections that are accepted and decisive, then you don’t really have a democracy, because the alternative is violence or authoritarianism.”

There has been no evidence of voter fraud in California.

Elder’s website asks voters to submit affidavits of evidence they witnessed of voter fraud, targeting those who would support him after Election Day. It was first reported on by the Sacramento Bee.

The site was registered anonymously in August. Hours after NBC News contacted the Elder campaign Monday afternoon about the site, the disclaimer about his campaign having funded the site was added.

“We should all be concerned about election integrity and we all want every proper vote to be counted. We’ve provided a link to an outside website that is providing an avenue for voters to document irregularities they encounter in this election,” Elder spokesperson Ying Ma said in an email sent after the publication of this story.

“With that said, we believe that Larry will win on Election Day, and that whatever shenanigans there are will not stand in the way of him becoming the next governor and rescuing California from the disaster that is Gavin Newsom,” she added.

California has a long history of voting by mail, but decided to send every registered voter in the state a ballot for the first time in this race, which has stoked bogus rumors about the ballots and their designs.

In an interview with NBC News on Monday, Elder repeatedly refused to say whether or not he would accept the results of Tuesday’s election.

“Let’s all work together to find out whether or not the election tomorrow is a fair election,” he repeated several times when pressed.

What a fatuous comment. There’s no evidence of fraud and no reason to suspect there will be. But I’m sure Elder and his benefactors will spend a lot of money and time pretending that there was. And millions of people will believe it because they want to believe. They love believing it. I don’t know what to do about that.

Steve Bannon, good little poodle

I know it’s unfair to the poodle

The man Trump called “Sloppy Steve” is still working hard to get back into the inner circle:

Conservative host Steve Bannon suggested that Larry Elder has himself to blame if the California recall election fails because he accepted former President Donald Trump’s loss in the 2020 presidential election.

Bannon made the remarks on his Real America’s Voice program moments after California polls opened on Tuesday.

“The mainstream media, the conservative media and Fox News all piled into the Larry Elder,” Bannon said. “I love Larry Elder. He’s a great guy. He’s terrific. But this race is not about Larry Elder and everybody made it about Larry Elder.”

Bannon accused Republicans of “snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.”

“And Larry Elder, let me be blunt, three weeks ago when he said Joe Biden won the election and Trump didn’t win, boom, all the sudden you felt the heat in the Trump movement start to drop for coming out here,” he complained. “We had this. This was as close to a lock as you could get. We had these guys panicked.”

Trump will continue to say that the election was rigged by the Democrats but he will love the fact that Bannon blames the loss on Elder saying that Biden won the election.

The groveling for Dear Leader’s approval never ends.