I like Harry Enten. I find him to be one of the more interesting polling analysts out there. So I don’t mean to pick on him. He’s hardly the worst example.
But this is just frustrating:
Oh ffs
NJ’s off year gov races, like VA’s, generally flip back and forth based on the previous year’s presidential result. If a Republican won the WH, then the Dem has a big advantage and vice versa. Murphy overcame that trend for the first time in 9 cycles, but it’s obv why it was hard
1989-90 Bush (R)-> Florio (D)
1992-93 Clinton (D)-> Whitman (R)
1996-7 Clinton (D)-> Whitman (R)
2000-01 Bush (R)-> McGreevey (D)
2004-05 Bush (R)-> Corzine (D)
2008-9 Obama (D)-> Christie (R)
2012-13 Obama (D)-> Christie (R)
2016-17 Trump (R)-> Murphy (D)
In the presidential elections, meanwhile, NJ hasn’t failed to vote for the Democratic candidate since George H. W. Bush’s first race in 1988 and the wins tend to be lopsided 15-18 point affairs. So when Christie beats Corzine by like 3.5 in ‘09, it’s a 21pt swing from Obama ‘08.
Originally tweeted by southpaw (@nycsouthpaw) on November 7, 2021.
I mean … come on, man.