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Only Five States Matter

Get ready to hear more about Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that you ever wanted to know (even if you live there…)

As Donald Trump builds out a presidential-campaign-in-waiting, his team is focusing on an electoral strategy that relies on recapturing the five states that flipped to Joe Biden in 2020.

The five states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — delivered a total of 73 electoral votes in 2020, enough to produce a decisive Electoral College victory for Biden. Since then, Trump has held four rallies, endorsed dozens of candidates and played a key role in shaping contests that could put his allies in top offices in those states in 2024.

Trump’s shadow campaign also recently polled Trump-Biden matchups in the five states, all of which were decided in 2020 by fewer than 3 percentage points. According to the poll, a memo of which was obtained by POLITICO, the former president led Biden in Arizona by 8 percentage points, Georgia by 3 points, Michigan by 12 points, Pennsylvania by 6 points and Wisconsin by 10 points.

“Poll after poll clearly demonstrates that former President Donald Trump is still the 800-pound gorilla in the GOP and would be its 2024 nominee should he run,” said Fabrizio, who confirmed the numbers for POLITICO but did not provide them. “This new data clearly shows that today the voters in these five key states would be happy to return Trump to the White House and send Biden packing.”

In another sign that Trump is gearing up for a White House bid, his super PAC is holding its biggest planned fundraiser to date on Dec. 2, when the nation’s top Republican donors are expected to gather at his Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Fla.

The super PAC is also expanding its board of directors to include Trump’s former acting national intelligence director Ric Grenell and his former acting attorney general, Matt Whitaker. They will serve alongside former Florida state Attorney General Pam Bondi, who defended Trump in his first impeachment trial.

The former president’s other political action committee, Save America, recently hired longtime Trump aide Lynne Patton to help him build political coalitions. Patton has doubled as a spokesperson for Trump in recent appearances on Fox News and Newsmax.

For months, Trump has been building a turnkey operation in case he decides to announce a presidential bid. Advisers expect him to do so after the midterms if Republicans capture at least one chamber of Congress. The poll from Fabrizio will only be more encouragement for Trump, according to those who know the former president’s thinking.

They say he’s concentrating on the midterms right now, with a focus on those states. No doubt they are road testing their electoral coup tactics. I highly doubt he’s only going to run if the Republicans take back one house of congress in the midterms. Trump can rationalize anything and if they do badly in ’22 he will no doubt surmise that it’s because he wasn’t on the ballot. If they do well it will be because he helped. The only way he isn’t running is if he can’t.

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