Forget the messaging and policy battles a moment. Forget arguments about who’s more progressive than whom. Here’s a little crash course in how electoral politics really works. Two experienced state House Democrats from our county announced their retirements on Monday. Progressiveness has little to do with what happens next.
Rep. Susan Fisher, an 18-year veteran and current Minority Whip in the North Carolina House, announced her retirement on the floor of the legislature Monday:
NC11 Democratic Party Executive Committee released a statement about Fisher’s reported retirement plans, praising her for the “tireless work that she has done in Raleigh.”
“One would be hard-pressed to find a North Carolina House Representative that has advocated as hard for women’s rights, environmental reform, and countless other issues not just for the residents of District 114, but for all North Carolinians,” a statement from the group said of Fisher.
Rep. Brian Turner, the second Democrat and more moderate, has served since turning out a board member of the American Legislative Exchange Council in 2014. He announced his retirement about 7 p.m. Eastern:
The impact of the increasing length of the legislative session and unpredictable legislative calendar is a key reason for my decision. During my tenure I have seen our legislative session lengthen to the point where session in October, November, and December (well past our planned adjournment at the end of June) has become the norm. This is unsustainable.
In the past seven years the legislative session has extended beyond its traditional June adjournment five times with multiple special and “lame-duck” sessions. The pandemic has refocused priorities for so many of us, including myself. Being home with my wife and daughter most of last year was so meaningful and that combined with the increasing time commitment to be in Raleigh has brought clarity.
Susan has a grandchild in Japan she’d like to see more often. Brian has a daughter soon to leave home for college. Susan plans to leave office on December 31. Brian will serve out his term. Susan’s redrawn district is a Democratic one. Holding Brian’s seat will be more of a challenge.
Barring voting rights intervention from Democrats in Washington, newly redrawn districts plus the prospect of another ten years of redistricting litigation and serving in what could be a near-permanent Democratic minority alongside a frothing, Trump-inflamed Republican majority must have factored in their decisions to retire. As impactful as they are, such decisions are very personal and kept close to the vest until announced. Few in the local party will have known with any lead time. Either the announcements were coordinated or, once Susan leaped, Brian did too. More likely the former. Also likely, Susan and Brian surveyed for potential replacements before bowing out ahead of 2022 candidate filing.
For the reasons above and more I’ll discuss below, it is possible that in this political environment they may not have found any. (I don’t know at this point.) But with the campaign calendar staring us in the face, the local Democratic committee needs two candidates for these seats by noon on Friday December 17, the end of the candidate filing period that starts next Monday (Dec. 6). That is, barring court intervention over state redistricting that pushes back the March primaries. (That’s happened before.) Any prospective candidates need to have been registered as Democrats by September 7 this year.
Sorry, but finding candidates on such short notice has little to do with their relative progressiveness, experience, or political savvy, and more to do with their personal circumstances and whether they live in one of these two districts.
First, a candidate has to have the stomach for the campaign ahead plus a primary if there is one. Then, assuming they win next November, they have to have the appetite for serving in what promise to be soul-crushing legislative sessions. They have to want it.
Second, they have to be financially secure enough to afford it. N.C. House members serve part-time that’s more like full-time, as Brian noted. They receive $13,951 per year plus mileage and $104 diem when in session. “All told, the average lawmaker pulls in somewhere in the $30,000 to $40,000 range in a typical year,” writes Rob Schofield of NC Policy Watch. A lot of that goes for rent and food. (As a former road warrior myself, I know that’s hundreds per week.) “Full-time part-time” legislators need to be self-employed at home with a job that doesn’t require full-time attention and/or be financially secure enough to spend their weeks in the state capitol 250 miles away from family that can spare them for months on end.
Third, they have to have a base of community support enough to succeed at fundraising, attract volunteers, and build a viable campaign.
Fourth, their families have to buy in. They too have to want it.
And finally, they have to make their decision to file for office before noon, two weeks from Friday.
There may be a county commissioner who could pull it together on short notice. And perhaps a current or past member of city council. They at least will have had some campaign experience and public exposure. Will they be progressive enough for those who think that’s the thing that matters most, if not the only thing? Maybe not. A lot of our most progressive up-and-comers are younger, less-established, and unable to clear the bars to entry.
But if local Democrats cannot recruit someone to run by December 17, they will forfeit their seats to better-situated Republicans. Even a stone-cold centrist would be preferable to that.
In January, the local Democratic Executive Committee has to appoint someone to serve out the remainder of Susan’s term. Ideally, it will be a person who filed for her seat in December who then scares off any primary challengers and runs for election as an incumbent in the fall. Often, that’s how it’s done.
We can debate policy, strategy, and ideology another time. This is where shit gets real.