E.J. Dionne makes the case that if COVID is under control, the economy keeps roaring and they manage to pull out some version of Build Back Better, they might be able to avoid disaster in the fall. He says they haven’t sold their accomplishments very well (and they certainly aren’t getting any benefit from this good economy.) But he makes the correct point that they have to pull something more out of the hat if they want to hold on to their majority:
Let’s stipulate: A media ecosystem divided between a mainstream that takes pride in nonpartisan toughness on incumbents and a powerful right-wing communications network makes life harder for Democrats. But there is little chance of changing the media narrative unless Democrats themselves shift the broader conversation.
The upshot: Biden’s standing has eroded from a 56 percent Gallup approval rating in mid-June to 43 percent in December. This is problem enough, but what should worry Democrats more is that Biden’s opponents are filled with passionate intensity while his supporters are, well, meh.
The Morning Consult/Politico survey conducted between Dec. 18 and Dec. 20, for example, found 43 percent of registered voters approving of Biden’s performance and 53 percent disapproving. But only 21 percent of those surveyed strongly approved of what Biden is doing, while 39 percent strongly disapproved.
The disenchantment of their core supporters is the biggest problem Democrats have to deal with. Among 18- to 29-year-olds — who gave Biden a 24-point advantage over Donald Trump in 2020 — only 22 percent strongly approved of his performance in the Morning Consult survey. And while 47 percent of Democrats strongly approved of Biden’s performance, 74 percent of Republicans strongly disapproved.
A comparable enthusiasm gap during Trump’s presidency led to Republican disaster in 2018. Democrats face this danger now.
Compounding the Democrats’ difficulties are signs that a potentially decisive bloc of middle-of-the-road voters who backed Biden over Trump is drifting away. A careful analysis of the 2021 Virginia governor’s race found that Republican Glenn Youngkin prevailed in a state Biden carried by 10 points thanks to a turnout differential in the GOP’s favor — and because 9 percent of Biden voters who did cast ballots supported Youngkin.
The study, conducted by pollster Geoff Garin for the Democratic Governors Association, concluded that these voters were “disproportionately male, politically independent, middle of the road ideologically, and more likely than average to be college educated.” Another key conclusion: “Education stands out as the number one issue motivating Biden/Youngkin voters to switch.”
Democrats clearly have to shore up their standing as stewards of the public schools. The larger lesson is that Republicans can win if they cozy up to Trump enough to turn out his supporters but not so much as to alienate moderates. Will Democrats allow Republicans to execute the Youngkin Straddle unchallenged in 2022?
Attacking Trump is not enough. Biden and his party need to make democracy itself a central issue, starting now.
This means, first, quick final passage of the democracy bills pending in the Senate. It also requires invoking the evidence from the House select committee’s Jan. 6 investigation to make clear that the threat to democracy comes not just from Trump but also from a Republican Party complicit in undermining democratic institutions, both overtly and through its silence.
Biden can strengthen his own standing by championing democracy far more forcefully. This requires vigorous advocacy for the democracy bills, legal and executive action against the GOP assault on free elections, and proving democratic government’s day-to-day effectiveness.
His allies in Congress should stop shilly-shallying and pass key elements of Build Back Better. With voting rights and achievements on behalf of the climate, heath care and the well-being of kids, Democrats might begin to break the fever of disillusionment.
Democrats will face big losses unless they simultaneously win back middle-ground voters and mobilize their disheartened loyalists. Governing with urgency is a good place to start, but overcoming the midterm blues will require more. They must make the election about something that matters. If democracy isn’t worth fighting for, what is?
I do hope the Dems can find a good message on education because the right wing caterwauling about CRT and masks and “parental rights” is going to be very loud. They think this is their 2022 “Obamacare.” As with all of their culture war issues, they are just working off of themes they’ve been pushing for years. They’ve been hostile to public education for years and have been demonizing teachers even longer. After all, they are public employees, unionized, educated (mostly) women. What’s not to hate? Democrats have never found a good response but it’s possible that in this era of right wing violence, the right’s approach may not sell.
And I’m totally behind the democracy push. It’s vital and I get the sense that plenty of people really do have their hair on fire over this. It’s not hyperbole. But I don’t have a strong sense that it’s a big electoral winner. I hope it is! After this relentless Big Lie propaganda, it should be! But I just don’t know.
Regardless, they need to pass legislation and run on it even if they are unsure of its appeal Everything’s on the line.