Dan Pfeiffer argues in his newsletter this morning that maybe it’s a bad thing for Democrats that Donald Trump is banned from social media. The Wall Street Journal reports his mentions have dropped by 88%. That’s a problem?
However, absence seems to have made the heart grow fonder. Trump’s approval ratings have nearly bounced back to where they were on Election Day 2020 when he came within 40,000 votes of winning reelection. An approval rating of 43/52 is nothing to write home about, but it makes him about as popular as Joe Biden is right now.
The lack of attention on Trump also helped his party. A Morning Consult poll found that the Republican Party has fully removed the stain of 1/6 from their brand. Prior to the insurrection, 32 percent of voters thought that the Republican Party was headed in the right direction. After the assault on the Capitol, that number dropped to 24 percent. One year later, it is now 34 percent despite the party leaders being more committed to the Big Lie today than they were one year ago.
Trump’s absence might be good for the world, Pfeiffer believes, but perhaps not for Democrats looking to hang on through the 2022 midterms. “Trump’s inability to remind the world why they hate him was a gift” that creates a false sense of unity in the Republican Party, Pfeiffer writes. The Journal backs him up:
Current and former aides to Mr. Trump said the shift in popularity was largely attributable to the former president’s diminished social-media presence. His constant, often provocative tweets helped galvanize supporters but provided steady ammunition for his detractors. During his time in office, even his most ardent supporters told pollsters they wished Mr. Trump wouldn’t broadcast each grievance and respond to every criticism
It’s rarely a good idea to amplify your opponent’s message unless it’s served up in a “truth sandwich.”
On the other hand, Trump has taken to promoting vaccines for now and slamming politicians who won’t admit to being vaccinated and boosted. (Looking at you, Ron DeSantis!)
Former President Donald Trump endorsed COVID-19 vaccines again and blasted “gutless” politicians who won’t say if they’ve been boosted.
In an interview with the far-right One America News network, Trump said he was pro-vaccination and that he experienced “absolutely no side effects” after receiving his booster shot.
[…]
“Many politicians — I watched a couple of politicians be interviewed and one of the questions was, ‘Did you get the booster?’ because they had the vaccine — and they’re answering it like … ‘yes’ but they don’t want to say it. Because they’re gutless,” Trump told the OAN presenter Dan Ball.
“You gotta say it, whether you had it or not. Say it. But the fact is that I think the vaccines saved tens of millions throughout the world.”
Obviously, Trump wants to take DeSantis out of the competition for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. If advocating for vaccines spurs more people to get vaccinated in the short run, it’s better for the country. Even if he changes course yet again. But will it be better for Trump?
The jury is out. Remember, Trump got booed just weeks ago by some of his own supporters for advocating vaccination.
Most of the Trump cult may change course when he says turn, but rather than admit error some will turn on him, too:
Controversial right-wing pastor Greg Locke recently criticized former President Donald Trump for supporting coronavirus vaccines, insisting that Trump “is going to lose his voter base” if he continues to do so.
Locke, who previously touted election conspiracy theories in favor of Trump, told members of his church that he is “sick” of the former president promoting the protective COVID-19 measure.
“He was lied to and he knows it. And his arrogance won’t let him change his mind. I’m telling you right now, on the authority of the Bible, if Donald Trump does not get out in front of this vaccine nonsense he is going to lose his voter base in the next coming election,” Locke said during a recent sermon, according to a video posted by Right Wing Watch on Monday.
Pfeiffer makes a case not unlike the theory behind the race-class narrative. If we don’t mention Trump (like avoiding talking about race), the only messages people hear will be from Republicans. And that’s bad. Pfeiffer cites thinking from Molly Greenwald, a Democratic operative who appeared on CNN:
The reaction in our party implies that it’s a zero-sum game: We only talk about Trump or we never talk about Trump. We’re in the ‘and’ zone. People want to talk about the economy and what’s happening in people’s lives, and all kinds of stuff. But you just can’t ignore this. It’s that sense that you have to choose, it’s one or the other. Because Terry McAuliffe didn’t win, and he talked about Trump, that’s the end of it? That’s nonsense.
“If the looming threat of Trump and Trumpism is front of mind, we have a shot,” Pfeiffer concludes. “If it isn’t, we may not.”
Either/or thinking puts me off in any context. Let’s see how badly Trump steps on his own over-long tie with the vaccine advocacy. The worst that happens is lives (and hospital staffs) are saved. As soon as DeSantis is politically dead, Trump may reverse course. But for now, giving him enough publicity to shave off some of his base seems prudent.