Lol. There’s just something kinky about Missouri Republicans. (Remember Todd “legitimate rape” Akin”?)
INSIDE THE GOP’S MISSOURI CLOWN SHOW — For months, many Republican operatives across the political spectrum — from MAGA world and the RNC to the NRSC and Team Mitch — have privately whispered agreement on one thing when it comes to Missouri’s crowded Senate GOP primary: They’d welcome any nominee except ERIC GREITENS.
The disgraced former governor of the Show-Me State resigned in 2018 after a woman testified under oath that Greitens tied her up in his basement, stripped her naked and took photos of her to use as blackmail in their extramarital affair — before forcing her to have oral sex with him. Greitens maintains that the exchange was consensual.
Despite that history — and despite a number of other prominent Republicans in the race —Greitens leads the pack in Missouri’s GOP primary. Party operatives know that if they want to stop him, they need to clear the field so that the anti-Greitens vote isn’t fragmented. But they’re at a loss over how to do that. None of the prominent candidates shows any sign of dropping out anytime soon.
— Over the weekend, Sen. JOSH HAWLEY (R-Mo.) took a first stab, backing Rep. VICKY HARTZLER with an endorsement that many believe could make a difference.
— But just as he did, another candidate, Rep. BILLY LONG, started attacking Hawley personally, going on a rant against him and having what some Republicans called a “public meltdown on Twitter” (see here and here).
— On Tuesday, state A.G. ERIC SCHMITT locked down Sen. TED CRUZ’s (R-Texas) endorsement, a sign that he’s in the race for the foreseeable future.
THERE’S ONE MAN WHO THEY ALL AGREE COULD CLEAR THE FIELD. Trump won the state by 16 points, and if he backed Hartzler alongside Hawley, many think this primary would be over. But Trump feels burned by some of his previously endorsed candidates who’ve fizzled out, and has been reluctant to wade in unless he’s sure he’s backing a winner.
Trump is also hearing opposing perspectives from prominent figures in the MAGA world orbit. Former adviser KELLYANNE CONWAY is working for Long, while KIMBERLY GUILFOYLE, who is engaged to DONALD TRUMP JR. and helps lead a pro-Trump super PAC, is national chair of Greitens’ campaign.
A few things to know about Trump and this race:
— The former president, we’re told, doesn’t like Greitens. While Trump often sides with men accused of sexual misconduct over the women who accuse them — and has asked some associates if they thought Greitens’ past sexual exploits could have been consensual — he’s also shown contempt for him. “What kind of guy ties a woman up in the basement against her will?” Trump recently asked one confidant.
Right. The way to deal with these things is to have your lawyer pay them off, everyone knows that.
— Even so, Trump has seen Greitens’ internal poll numbers and asked those close to him if he should just endorse him and take the victory. And Greitens is certainly trying his best to get Trump’s blessing: He’s vowed to vote against MITCH MCCONNELL for GOP leader, regularly spouts the president’s election conspiracies to earn points and, according to one source, even spent several days hanging around Mar-a-Lago last week.
— People close to Trump and senior Republicans across the party have encouraged the former president not to back the former governor, arguing both that they can’t have an alleged sexual predator in the Senate and that if he wins the primary he could lose a seat for Republicans in the general — a prediction backed by recent polling. (Greitens’ campaign has pushed back on this conclusion, arguing that Trump’s 2020 pollster, TONY FABRIZIO, has numbers showing otherwise.)
IN FAIRNESS, IT’S NOT AS THOUGH TRUMP HAS DONE NOTHING SO FAR. In 2021, Trump and Conway told Long — an early Trump 2016 supporter — that he needed to boost his poll and fundraising numbers if he wanted Trump’s endorsement. In December, after Long failed to do that, multiple sources tell us that Trump called Long and asked him to seek reelection to the House, gently suggesting he bow out of the Senate race. “We really need you in the House,” Trump said, according to someone familiar with the call.
Long didn’t take kindly to the idea, ignored the advice and is still trying to gain traction — though even his adviser Conway has told him to lay off the Twitter rants and that he needs to do more. Indeed, when asked about whether GOP leaders have asked him to drop out, Long told our Alex Isenstadt in a text “they know that will NEVER HAPPEN.” His campaign spokesperson told us last night that “Billy is working hard not only to get the endorsement of President Trump, but also the endorsement from the voters of Missouri on August 2nd.”
SO WHAT ABOUT OTHER REPUBLICAN LEADERS?
— In the past, the NRSC has waded into these sorts of fights to try to ensure the candidate who wins the nomination can win the general. But NRSC Chair RICK SCOTT (R-Fla.) has made clear he’s not getting involved in any — any — internal GOP races.
— Some have wondered why McConnell world or the McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund haven’t done more. But around Washington, other anti-Greitens Republicans say that McConnell’s involvement could actually backfire and help the former governor, which is why they’re hoping he stays out of this for now.
— Instead, many seem to be looking to Hawley, who is influential within the state GOP, hoping that his endorsement will help narrow the field.
These Republicans are crossing their fingers that Trump will follow the senator’s momentum and lean in for Hartzler, whom the former president has met but doesn’t know well. A double Hawley-Trump Hartzler endorsement, these Republicans say, may be the only thing that puts Greitens away for good, though one person told us Trump has called Hartzler “a nice lady, but not a fighter.”
Still, we’re told Trump considers Hawley’s counsel, often asking people “what does Hawley think?” when it comes to anything Missouri-related.
While Hawley hasn’t flat-out asked Trump to back Hartzler, after endorsing the congresswoman, Hawley called Trump to make the case why she would be the strongest candidate. Sources also said that Hawley — who investigated Greitens as state A.G., and was one of the first Republicans to ask for him to resign — has made the case to Trump in the past that having Greitens as the nominee would be a serious problem for the party.
Meanwhile, Trump isn’t weighing in. Greitens feels like he’s sitting pretty, and has a good chance at becoming Missouri’s next senator. “Missouri political consultants and establishment swamp creatures are terrified that a Trump candidate like Governor Greitens will flip the trough over,” Greitens’ campaign manager, DYLAN JOHNSON, told us Wednesday night.
I think the most interesting thing about this is that Greitans is polling the best in the state. They know what he did. And apparently, they like it.
I predict Trump will endorse him. The only thing holding him back, I’m sure, is the knowledge that he got burned with Judge Roy Moore. But if Greitans looks like he’s winning the nomination, Trump will get on board.