A good overview from Foreign Affairs of the geopolitical issues at stake in Ukraine. The operating assumption of a lot of American coverage is that Putin has little to gain and will likely fail. This article makes the case that if Putin succeeds, which is quite possible, he stands to gain much, especially in terms of weakening European alliances, both internally and with the US.
But why is Putin invading now? Why not during Trump when he would have risked fewer consequences? My guess is that the world situation posed a much lower threat to Putin’s autocracy than it does now. Most crucially, the US was run by an incompetent president who also was, to say the least, pro-Putin. And Putin had good reason to believe that Trump, no friend to an independent Ukraine, stood a good chance to get re-elected. From Putin’s standpoint, there was no reason to waste resources on an expensive, complex invasion when a US headed by an easily manipulated idiot would eventually let him re-install a puppet.
Therefore, in addition to those advantages that the article details, an invasion benefits Putin because it will surely put enormous pressure on the little that’s left of American democracy and national cohesion. Biden will go into the midterms with (at least) two unequivocal and difficult-to-justify foreign policy disasters — the Afghanistan withdrawal and Ukraine. Yes, Biden’s defenders can argue that both had complex causes and they’re not really Biden’s doing. But I think what the average American sees — even without the ravings of America’s fascist propagandists — are debacles that point to America’s diminishing effectiveness and power. In the case of Ukraine, the debacle may hit home directly, specifically with rising prices and fears of massive war. Biden will be blamed.
Putin is risking a great deal and his people will suffer. But regardless of whether he fully succeeds, the potential consequences here in the US — a United States pushed even further to the brink of internal collapse — are greater than they will be for Russia. Putin knows that and believes it’s worth the risk.
In short, Putin had very few reasons not to threaten Ukraine right now — or to follow through with invasion. Ukraine will experience a terrible human tragedy. And both the US and Europe will be destabilized to Russia’s advantage.