In principle, I agree with Paul Campos:
A “victory” which leaves the victor an economically and culturally crippled pariah state, in military possession of a nation of 45 million people, that is going to be violently unwilling to remain pacified, is the very definition of a pyrrhic triumph.
If this is at all an accurate description of the state of affairs, then it’s critical to find some face-saving rationale that will allow Putin to walk back his fantastic blunder, while also allowing him to save his own miserable skin in at least the short term (obviously the latter condition is a prerequisite for the former outcome, as long as Putin is around)
The problem, which Paul fully understands, is this:
…the longer the rest of the world can remain absolutely opposed to this ongoing first order war crime, the better the chances are of pressuring Putin and the rest of the thugs running the oligarchical kleptocracy that is contemporary Russia into some negotiated settlement that will save their faces just enough to save millions of lives.
I don’t share the (unstated) optimism that we can long remain opposed to Putin. My guess is that assuming the situation doesn’t devolve into direct war with NATO — a big assumption — the US will be among the first to buckle to the reality of Putin’s conquest of Ukraine. (The extreme right will start screaming its head off once gas prices jump, the media will amplify their screaming, and the government will feel compelled to appease). Germany and other European nations, facing an energy shortage of catastrophic proportions — and one more gigantic infusion of refugees — will quickly follow. In short, by this fall at the latest, the West will be well on its way towards somehow accommodating much of what Putin demands.
As for this being a Pyrrhic victory, there is no doubt that Putin’s Russia will face exceedingly dire problems. But Russia is a country with a history that demonstrates it can endure hardships at a level that is impossible for long-pampered Americans even to imagine.
So yes, we have to find a way to immediately stop the killing and avoid the potential slaughter of millions. And agreed, Maximum Belligerence is the worst of a lot of dangerous options: after all, this is not exactly 1939. Putin has nukes and speaking personally, I don’t want to find out if he’s bluffing.
But let’s not kid ourselves. To prevail in any meaningful way, the West, especially this country, will have to summon up vast reservoirs not just of oil but of patience. The former we have, at least in the short term. The latter we’ve never possessed.