Perhaps one million Ukrainians have fled the Russian invasion of their country for safety in its western reaches. A humanitarian disaster looms for Europe.
East and south, Russia claims to have captured the city of Kherson and have surrounded Mariupol.
Russian invasion troops still may be bogged down in the north of Ukraine this morning even as attacks on Kyiv continue. A former employee of the Defense Contract Management Agency explains in a thread that, among other sins, poor maintenance and unexpected muddy conditions are behind vehicles in “Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s” (read on) convoy becoming disabled and abandoned. Bogged down literally.
A second round of talks between Russia and Ukraine aimed at halting the fighting is also bogged down (AP):
“We are ready to conduct talks, but we will continue the operation because we won’t allow Ukraine to preserve a military infrastructure that threatens Russia,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said, adding that it would let Ukrainians to choose what government they should have.
If you believe Ukrainian civilians armed with small arms and antitank weapons are a threat to Russia, and if you believe Russia will “let Ukrainians choose,” I’ve got a land bridge in the Bering Sea to sell you.
Garry Kasparov, the Russian former chess grandmaster (for those who remember), believes Putin has essentially declared a world war “on the civilized world of international law, democracy, and any threat to his power.” Stopping him will not be easy. Economic sanctions will not do it. Easy is over.
Putin’s war on Ukraine has entered its next phase, one of destruction and slaughter of civilians. It is also a part of Putin’s World War, a war on the civilized world of international law, democracy, and any threat to his power, which he declared long ago. 1/13
The free world’s denial of this war and decades of appeasement allowed Putin to threaten and conquer abroad while turning Russia into a police state. The price to stop him has gone up every time he has advanced unchallenged. Ukrainians are paying that price in blood. 2/13
If Putin is not stopped now, not prevented from destroying Ukraine and committing genocide against its people, there will be a next time and it will be in NATO, with an unprecedented nuclear threat. Do not let Putin escalate again in a time and place of his choosing. 3/13
Everyone is quoting my 2015 book Winter Is Coming and saying I was right & “listen to Kasparov”. But will you still listen when I say this will take sacrifice and risk? Not just wheat and gas prices, not just empty chalets and unemployed lobbyists. Easy is over. 4/13
Or will you say that I am irrational, blinded by hate, as I heard in 2015? I hope not. Putin must be stopped because the unthinkable is now the possible. The world has awoken, at long last, and many steps I recommended last week are happening. It’s not enough. 5/13
My recommendations:
1 I cannot demand NATO attack Russian forces directly, but I can speak from history & knowledge of Putin. A dictator who has already crossed every line cannot be prevented from escalating with restraint. If he destroys Ukraine, he won’t stop. 6/13
2 We are not trying to appeal to the murderer in his bunker in the Urals. The message is to those who carry out his orders. Will they? Do they all wish to die? Putin will escalate anyway if he is not stopped now. He will, as he always has before, & the price will be higher. 7/13
3 Send Russia to the technological stone age. No support, no parts, no services. Oil boycotts aren’t necessary if oil tech is unavailable. The industry will grind to a halt. This means a war footing in sacrificing, retooling & increasing production to substitute. It’s war. 8/13
4 It’s always tragic that ordinary people suffer, but they are not being bombed in their homes like Ukrainians. Every element of Russian society that can pressure Putin must know they have to choose between him & everything else. Some will cling to him, but for how long? 9/13
5 Clear message to Russian generals that they will suffer annihilation if one inch of NATO is touched. Send UKR every weapon, including the jets that have been blocked, as if Putin cares about the difference. Stop guessing about his thoughts and do what is needed. 10/13
6 Every day Ukraine endures gives opportunity to communicate this catastrophe to the only people who can really stop Putin, the Russian people, from oligarchs to commanders to protestors. Let all in the power vertical know they will be treated as war criminals. They are. 11/13
7 Leave nothing in reserve. Speed is of the essence to stop payments and catch them and their assets before they hide. Threats like “he doesn’t know what’s coming” don’t work if Putin doesn’t believe you. Show him. And show Russians there is no way back with Putin. Never. 12/13
8 Root out the corrupt politicians, businessmen & dark money that corrupted a generation to turn a blind eye or serve authoritarian regimes. Follow the donations, payments, gifts, influence. Hold them accountable. Down with Putin & his appeasers, glory to Ukraine. 13/13
PS To all officials and media: STOP CALLING PUTIN ‘PRESIDENT’! He’s a dictator. Words have power. He does not deserve a democratic title. Fuck your style guide. “Russian dictator Vladimir Putin”.
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