Russia tries to appear more formidable than it is
Earlier on the day Russia saw its Black Sea flagship sunk, it stepped up its threats against Europe (The Guardian):
Moscow has said it will be forced to strengthen its defences in the Baltic if Finland and Sweden join Nato, including by deploying nuclear weapons, as the war in Ukraine entered its seventh week and the country braced for a major attack in the east.
However, the Lithuanian defence minister, Arvydas Anušauskas, claimed on Thursday that Russia already had nuclear weapons stored in its Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad, which borders Lithuania and Poland. That claim has not been independently verified, but the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) reported in 2018 that nuclear weapon storage bunkers in Kaliningrad had been upgraded.
Lithuania was unimpressed (Bloomberg):
But Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda dismissed the threats as “empty,” accusing Russia of already placing tactical nuclear weapons in the Kalinigrad exclave on the Baltic. “I don’t know if one can deploy something anew that’s already been deployed,” Nauseda told a press conference in Vilnius.
Dmitry Medvedev, former Russian president and ally of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, said there can be “no more talk of any nuclear-free status for the Baltic: the balance must be restored.”
Balance? What balance? NATO’s GDP represents over 25 times the Russian Federation’s economy (2020; World Bank). But give Medvedev points for trying.
Russia this week sent a formal diplomatic note to the United States warning that U.S. and NATO shipments of the “most sensitive” weapons systems to Ukraine were “adding fuel” to the conflict there and could bring “unpredictable consequences.”
The bluster is a sign that Putin’s attempt to erase Ukraine from the map has not only failed so far, but has backfired. Where once Sweden and Finland wished to remain nonaligned, Putin has changed their minds (New York Times):
In a rapid response to Russia’s invasion — and despite Mr. Putin’s threat of “serious political and military consequences” — both Finland and Sweden are now seriously debating applications for membership in the alliance and are widely expected to join.
Their accession would be another example of the counterproductive results of Mr. Putin’s war. Instead of crushing Ukrainian nationalism, he has enhanced it. Instead of weakening the trans-Atlantic alliance, he has solidified it. Instead of dividing NATO and blocking its growth, he has united it.
The missile cruiser Moskva was the second major Russian vessel sunk during its invasion of Ukraine. Moscow disputes that Ukrainian forces sank it with two Neptune missiles. Moscow blamed an unexplained fire on board.
Russia promises to retaliate against Kyiv at a time when, after Ukraine repelled Russian forces there, city life there was returning to some kind of normal (Associated Press):
A day after Moscow suffered a stinging symbolic defeat with the loss of the flagship of its Black Sea fleet, Russia’s Defense Ministry promised Friday to ramp up missile attacks on the Ukrainian capital in response to Ukraine’s alleged military “diversions on the Russian territory.”
The threat of intensified attacks on Kyiv came after Russian authorities accused Ukraine of wounding seven people and damaging about 100 residential buildings with airstrikes on Bryansk, a region that borders Ukraine. Authorities in another border region of Russia also reported Ukrainian shelling Thursday.
CNN reports renewed sea-launched missile strikes against the outskirts of Kyiv.
Russia has already retaliated in the Ukrainian southeast (CNN):
A spokesperson for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in southern Ukraine suggested that Russian missile attacks in the south since Thursday night were in retaliation for the sinking of the Russian cruiser Moskva.
Natalia Humeniuk said the attack had “affected not only [Russia’s] ships, but also the enemy’s imperial ambitions.”
She told a media briefing Friday that after the attack on the Moskva, “we all realize that we will not be forgiven.”
After its defeat on the ground in Kyiv, Russia has refocused its efforts to capture and hold the eastern Donbas region. “They’re coming and coming and coming,” building up for an attack, a Ukrainian lieutenant tells CNN.
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