Is the balance of power shifting in Ukraine’s favor?
A tweet from former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul popped up this morning:
Russians are already speaking as if NATO is their enemy because Russian security experts know the war in Ukraine has gone badly:
Russia’s military believes that limiting the war’s initial goals is a serious error. They now argue that Russia is not fighting Ukraine, but NATO. Senior officers have therefore concluded that the Western alliance is fighting all out (through the supply of increasingly sophisticated weaponry) while its own forces operate under peacetime constraints like a bar on airstrikes against some key areas of Ukraine’s infrastructure. In short, the military now demands all-out war, including mobilization.
They now see Ukraine as a proxy battle against NATO. MSNBC’s Chris Hayes played a clip Thursday night in which Russian state TV pundits discussed the prospect of using nuclear weapons in a gambit to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Because “we can’t quit now,” as Hayes put it. Yeah, that will redound to Russia’s advantage.
But are they serious? The public rhetoric is all about saber rattling, said Ilya Lablokov of the University of Sheffield. “I don’t thjnk they are ready to die themselves.” Or as John Kerry once said, “How do you ask a man to be the last man to die for a mistake?”
Paul Krugman suggests that in this war of attituion with the “arsenal of democracy” and NATO on its side, Ukraine may yet be the victor. A lot more than Ukraine is at stake:
And let’s be clear about two things.
First, if Ukraine really does win, it will be a triumph for the forces of freedom everywhere. Would-be aggressors and war criminals will be given pause. Western enemies of democracy, many of whom were huge Putin fanboys just the other day, will have been given an object lesson in the difference between macho posturing and true strength.
Second, while credit for this victory, if it materializes, will, of course, go above all to the Ukrainians themselves, this wouldn’t have been possible without brave, effective leadership in some (if, alas, not all) Western nations.
Whatever else you may say about Boris Johnson, Britain has been a rock in this crisis. Poland and other Eastern European nations have risen to the occasion, defying Russian threats. And Joe Biden has done an incredible job, holding the Western alliance together while supplying Ukraine with the weapons it needs.
Previous U.S. presidents have given stirring speeches about freedom: “Tear down this wall,” “Ich bin ein Berliner.” And it’s good that they have. But Biden has arguably done more to defend freedom, in substantive ways that go beyond mere words, than any president since Harry Truman.
I wonder whether and when he’ll get the credit he deserves.
Let’s worry about that when Vladimir Putin’s forces have slunk back to Mother Russia.
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