(Don LaFontaine voice): In a world where more voters are registered independents….
My friend Chris Reeves at Daily Kos hosts a long-running Saturday column called Nuts & Bolts on campaign tech. Many activists (especially noobs) convince themselves that winning political races is mostly about having the right messaging and strategy. They neglect the basic mechanics needed to make a campaign go. I’m going to share something on that in a moment.
As I’ve said before, winning races in your head is like bringing sports visualization to the Olympics and thinking you’ll be competitive when you show up with no conditioning and no skills. Thus, my nuts-and-bolts For The Win guide for county chairs linked at the bottom.
Many women became politically engaged for the first time after Donald Trump won the 2016 election. Some quickly found themselves involved in local Democratic committees and chairing them in short order. These are predominantly unpaid, time-intensive, and thankless gigs. Even more so in red counties.
A new county chair from one of North Carolina’s largest counties who contacted me recently. Exactly my target audience. One year in with little political experience, she heard about my guide from a county chairs’ forum and came looking for help.
In addition to sending her my guide, I sent a spreadsheet showing her how unaffiliated voters (independents) in each precinct voted in the last general election.
Every election, candidates ask me how I think UNAffiliated voters will “break” D or R. Can’t say. But it’s easier to estimate how they will break in November based on how they did break in the last election. Not individually, of course; the ballot is still secret. But with some basic simplifying assumptions and North Carolina’s near-unique free FTP access to state election data, one can tease out how UNAs voted in aggregate in every precinct. In a state where UNAs are now the largest group of voters, it’s a clue to precincts where the pickins is good and where they are not.
It’s becoming clear that this tool (based on the 2020 presidential race) is more useful in larger counties than smaller, redder ones. Here’s what precincts look like in her large red county that went 61% for Trump (county and precinct labels omitted):
Overall in this county (pop. over 200k), 44% of UNAs voted D. Statewide, it was 42%. In my blue county (pop. 270k), 56% of UNAs voted D. In my precinct, 81% of UNAs voted D.
I emphasize: this is an estimate. Turnout totals and Biden/Trump vote totals won’t always correspond. Some voters leave races blank; third-party voters may have crossed over. Data entry errors may have occurred.
Even in smaller, redder counties, it’s a clue to the lay of the land, if disheartening. Example (pop. under 100k) from a county that voted 66% for Trump :
When in a majority of precincts, not even all your registered Democrats vote Democrat, there’s a helluva hill to climb. Still, losing by less in redder counties can mean winning statewide contests. Good to know where you stand.
I’m still working this out.
3-Tier Unaffiliated Targeting Strategy
I envision a 3-tiered strategy for targeting UNAffiliated voters for November 2022 in conjunction with VoteBuilder. Unaffiliateds who pulled a D ballot in a primary represent just over 5% of all registered UNAs. ALL registered Democrats plus 5% of UNAs falls a bit shy of 50%+1. (Tier % determined by candidate.)
Tier 1: Any UNA (with a voting history) in a precinct with an UNA split 60%(?) or higher in 2020.
GOTV only. Use VoteBuilder to find UNAs with voting histories.
Tier 2: Any UNA (with a voting history, newly registered, or newly re-registered former R) in a precinct with an UNA split between 40%(?) and 60%(?) in 2020.
ID (VoteBuilder) / persuasion / GOTV
Tier 3: Any 4×4 UNA that pulled a D ballot in last two primaries (2020, 2022) in a precinct with an UNA split below 40%(?) in 2020.
ID (VoteBuilder) / persuasion / GOTV
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Request a copy of For The Win, 4th Edition, my free, countywide get-out-the-vote planning guide for county committees at ForTheWin.us.
If in a position to Play to win in 2022 (see post first), contact tpostsully at gmail dot com