But don’t expect GOP extremists to stop at No
Kansas voters proved Tuesday night that the decision by a revanchist Supreme Court majority to strip women of a constitutional right to bodily autonomy in Dobbs has not sit well with voters. Not even in one of the country’s most conservative states. Democrats are advised to adjust their 2022 messaging and strategy accordingly.
The state Supreme Court ruled six-to-one in April that the first sentence in the state’s bill of rights is not merely aspirational. “All men are possessed of equal and inalienable natural rights, among which are life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness” means what it says, the court ruled. Does it include “the substantive rights include a woman’s right to make decisions about her body, including the decision whether to continue her pregnancy?” Yes.
What happened next should be instructive for abortion rights supporters. The Republican-dominated legislature responded by placing a misleadingly worded referendum on Tuesday’s primary ballot. A Yes vote “would affirm there is no Kansas constitutional right to abortion” and permit regulation and/or banning of the procedure altogether in the state. By 59 to 41, voters rejected the measure.
Turnout in the first major post-Roe v. Wade referendum — in what would be a low-turnout primary election — was “exceptionally high” and “a warning sign for the GOP.” Turnout was strong in the cites, as might be predicted, yet weak among abortion foes even in the reddest places in Kansas. The secretary of state’s office predicted perhaps 36 percent turnout. By Tuesday night, actual turnout was trending towards 50 percent.
“From the bluest counties to the reddest ones, abortion rights performed better than Mr. Biden, and opposition to abortion performed worse than Mr. Trump,” reported the New York Times.
CNN:
The rejection of the measure highlighted the increasingly stark divide between the activities of Republican state lawmakers, often in legislatures gerrymandered to effectively guarantee GOP control, and the political and policy desires of American voters. In more immediate terms, the ballot measure’s defeat — on a day of extraordinary turnout — also provides a clear indication that the desire to defend abortion rights could be a potent issue for Democrats in the coming midterm elections.
The polling, from a variety of sources, is unambiguous and consistent. Across party lines, abortion rights are popular and the Supreme Court’s ruling is not. The most recent CNN poll found that 63% of Americans disapproved — 51% “strongly” — of the court’s decision. The Kaiser Family Foundation came to a similar conclusion, with 61% of respondents to their survey saying they wanted their state to guarantee access to abortion. Only 25% wanted them to restrict it.
But consider: Losing the court battle in April did not deter Kansas Republicans from placing the referendum they drafted last year on Tuesday’s ballot with the expectation that it would pass in a low-turnout primary. The Dobbs decision in June upended that calculation. Still, the defeat of the referendum on Tuesday is not likely to stop them from pushing ahead with an abortion ban in violation of voters’ clear wishes.
Consider too: Florida voters in 2018 approved a constitutional amendment to restore felons’ right to vote by 64.5 to 35.5 percent, a far larger margin than voted for Ron DeSantis (49.6 percent). Florida Republicans nevertheless moved swiftly to render voters’ decision moot, passing measures to force felons “to navigate a byzantine bureaucracy to get their voting rights back.”
Still more to consider: “In 2015, 7 out of 10 Ohio voters approved an amendment to the state constitution to encourage bipartisanship in the redistricting process and explicitly outlaw partisan gerrymandering.” Republicans nevertheless repeatedly ignored voters’ wishes and state Supreme Court rulings on gerrymandered districts there. “Republicans plan to ignore the state judiciary’s attempts to enforce the language of redistricting reforms — while waiting for a more favorable Supreme Court makeup following the November election,” wrote Andrew Tobias in June.
Finally, what signal Tuesday’s vote sends remains to be seen. Do Kansans overwhelmingly support women’s bodily autonomy? Or are they signaling that MAGA fanaticism has gone too far?
Donald Trump-backed election deniers had a good night. Arizona Republicans ousted House Speaker Russell “Rusty” Bowers who rebuffed Trump’s efforts to overturn 2020 election results there. Bowers testified publicly (against Trump, in effect) before the Jan. 6 committee in June. He lost his state Senate primary bid to former state senator David Farnsworth on Tuesday.
Savor the victory for women’s rights in Kansas. Leverage in November what the country learned last night. But don’t expect the reactionary fringe to slink back under its rock.
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