Did Samuel Alito wake a sleeping giant?
Tom gave the rundown of the earthquake vote in Kansas last night affirming abortion rights in Kansas earlier. I don’t think anyone expected this vote to be this lopsided. It’s a shocker.
Something is happening with this issue. It may have awakened a sleeping giant — voters who have had it with the extremism of the Republican party. After five years of Donald Trump’s circus and January 6th, the GOP’s dramatic right turn and the radical Supreme Court majority (achieved through dubious congressional maneuvers) it’s just possible that the majority of this country is finally mad as hell and they’re not going to take it anymore. The arrogant reversal of a long-standing constitutional right that turns the United States into an antediluvian throwback nation may have been the last straw. It’s not like Kansas is is California….
What’s next? I think Josh Marshall’s plan is one way to exploit this moment:
Vote counting slowed down overnight with abt 95% reporting. No (abortion rights) is steady at around 59% support vs 41%. It seems unlikely to tick down more than one or two percent at most. This was considered a too close to call race with an advantage to Yes.
2/ When a result is this lopsided & this unexpected for most political observers it’s not only a political earthquake but a sign many political professionals have seriously mistaken the political terrain. When there’s a political backlash as strong as the one against Dobbs …
3/ and one party is as firmly tied to it as Republicans are here, clearly the opposing party needs to grab on to it with both hands. Abortion rights will be central to numerous races this fall. But Democrats need to make the connection as explicit and tangible as possible.
4/ The way to do that is to make a firm pledge that if Democrats hold the House and add two Senate seats they will make Roe into federal law in January 2023. They are at present kinda sorta suggesting something like that, maybe. But clarity is everything. Give us this …
5/ specific result and this is specifically what we will do. Kansans didn’t turn out in these lopsided numbers to make a statement about Dobbs or Roe. They did so because they knew that the outcome of this one vote would immediately and dramatically effect the right …
6/ to a safe and legal abortion in the state. Democrats need to approximate the same clarity at the federal level, both to undo Dobbs and also to secure their hold on Congress. The way to do that is to get all 48 (non-Sinema/Manchin) senators to make a firm pledge that …
7/ if the House is held and two Democratic senators added they will vote for a Roe law in January 2023 AND suspend the filibuster rules to guarantee that bill gets an old fashioned up or down majority vote. So far 31 Senate Democrats have said they’ll do that (though not …
8/ yet on the specific date). All but two of the 17 are basically there but still refuse to say it clearly. There are two potential hold outs. Angus King of Maine and Mark Warner of Virginia. They will all certainly fall in line quickly if constituents apply pressure now.
9/ In fact here’s a handy list of where every Democratic senator stands on this key question. Can you use this list to pinpoint where pressure needs to be applied. Pick up the phone. Old school. It gets results.
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/which-senate-democrats-are-blocking-the-path-to-abortion-rights
10/ The political power of Roe and Reform has been clear to many people for months. Kansas removes all doubt. Voters can get the remaining senators to fall in line quickly enough by making their views clear to the remaining senators. And if they do the midterm can take …
11/ the dynamics – the clarity and this for that nature of the vote – of last nights referendum in Kansas.
Originally tweeted by Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) on August 3, 2022.
By the way:
In the aftermath of the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade, 55% of voters say abortion is a “very important” issue to consider when deciding how to they will vote in November’s midterms, up from 46% in February, according to a new poll from the Kaiser Family Foundation.
The big picture: While abortion is a motivating issue for some voter groups, it’s eclipsed by inflation, including rising gas prices, which 74% of respondents say is “very important.”
Yes, but: “Lower-turnout midterm elections can be a game of inches, and abortion could make a difference, especially if gas prices continue to fall,” KFF President and CEO Drew Altman said.
“It’s motivating a lot of younger women to vote, and most Democrats, half of independents and even some Republicans plan to vote for candidates who support abortion access.”
By the numbers: 77% of Democratic voters said they considered abortion to be a “very important” issue, an increase from 50% in February.
For Democratic women, the number increases to 82% post-Roe, from 55% in February. Approximately three in four (73%) women voters of reproductive age, 18-49, say abortion is a “very important” issue.
The number has decreased for Republican women: 60% in February said abortion access was “very important, and now 44% say the same.
Other numbers: Around 54% of voters said the demise of Roe has made them “more likely” to consider a candidate’s stance on abortion, while 3% it has made them “less likely” to do so.
The KFF survey also found that 61% of the public says they want their state to protect abortion access, while 25% want their state to ban it.
Worth noting: 43% of all voters said the ruling made them “more motivated” to vote, including 72% of Democrats and 56% of independents — an important number to consider as Democrats face the threat of losing both houses of Congress this fall.