A thread that lays out the possibilities
Following up on Tom’s post below, this thread goes even more deeply into what kind of documents might be concerning the DPJ:
Last night’s report the FBI was looking for ‘nuclear documents’ could mean a couple different things—but there are some clues in the wider reporting that might help narrow it down. I wrote a book on nuclear war plans, so buckle up, here we go….
The US has, broadly speaking, four different categories of files that would count as ‘nuclear documents,’ each of which has some unique classification peculiarities, and all of which exist at the so-called “Above Top Secret” level because a simple TS clearance isn’t enough….
‘Nuclear docs’ could refer to files on:
(a) nuclear weapon science and design;
(b) other countries’ nuclear plans, both allies (UK) and adversaries (Russia, China, North Korea);
(c) details on our nuclear weapons and deployments;
(d) details on our nuclear command & control…“Nuclear science and design” files are uniquely classified as what’s known as “Restricted Data,” a special security level run by the Dept of Energy and historically accessed through what’s known as a “Q Clearance,” a special background check and access protocol.
“TS/RD” files are “born classified,” in that unlike other classified intelligence/science work, they are presumed to be highly classified from the moment of creation. Rather than opting-in to classification, you have to opt out…..
“Nuclear Command & Control” documents—think how the presidential Football operates and how launch procedures unfold—are known as NC2 and have their historically had their own classification known as “Extremely Sensitive Information” (ESI), which again requires special access…
The fact we’ve seen references around the Mar-a-Lago search to “Special Access Programs” (SAPs) tells us something too: SAPs are also a unique classification category that deals—usually—with the most sensitive operations and technical capabilities of intel/defense systems….
SAPs require you to be “read into” the program, e.g. that you have a specific “need to know,” and the documents are carefully tracked to see who has read them and where they’re stored.
Details of a foreign country’s nuclear plans? That’d be a SAP *and* probably what’s known as SCI, “Sensitive Compartmented Information,” the designation usually for protecting “sources and methods.”
Obviously how we know about other countries’ secrets would be SCI.…
Interestingly, SAPs can also protect nuclear research and development, as well as presidential/military NC2 communication systems, which are known by their own special clearance YANKEE WHITE.
Did Trump walk out with info on cutting-edge R&D or presidential launch systems? …
SAPs and SCI are known by their own codenames, so, for instance, the long-ttime classification for our satellite reconnaissance was TALENT KEYHOLE, so documents protected by it would be labeled “TS/SCI TALENT KEYHOLE”….
tl;dr: All these classifications—SCI, SAP, ESI, RD—denote and protect the literally most sensitive documents in the entire US government.
The idea you’d walk out of a secure facility with them?
That’s a literal federal crime—and one that the USG prosecutes harshly, often.
Originally tweeted by Garrett M. Graff (@vermontgmg) on August 12, 2022.
The fact we’ve seen references around the Mar-a-Lago search to “Special Access Programs” (SAPs) tells us something too: SAPs are also a unique classification category that deals—usually—with the most sensitive operations and technical capabilities of intel/defense systems….
That the head of FBI counterintelligence was one who applied for the warrant and the request to unseal it says something too, I’d say. The reason this was done was clearly because they suspected that Trump had absconded with some very sensitive, classified documents. Whether he actually did that, we don’t know. But they obviously had reason to believe so.
There are a number of different theories as to why he might have done this. There’s always the idea that he had some documents about Russia. After all, he spilled the beans to the Russian ambassador the day after he fired Comey and tore up notes of meetings with Putin along with dozens of other suspicious incidents so it’s a logical assumption. But there’s also the very weird relationship with Saudi Arabia which has every reason to want access to very valuable classified nuclear information (and which has recently paid 2 billion dollars for Jared Kushner’s “advice”.)
But my money’s on North Korea. Trump’s “love affair” with the dictator Kim Jong Un was very special to him and I think it’s highly likely he took documents relating to their relationship that contained some highly sensitive intelligence that would be dangerous if it were to get into the wrong hands. Honestly, if there’s one country you don’t want to be cavalier about it’s North Korea. We are very lucky those two nutcases didn’t end the world. It could still happen.
I don’t know when we will find out what specifically they suspected if ever. The warrant is probably not that specific and they may seek to redact anything that would give us a clue in the affidavit they filed in order to get it. (That’s assuming they agree to release the affidavit which we won’t find out about until Monday.)
Adam Davidson weighs in:
There seems to be a debate on this site about whether Trump was, explicitly, going to sell the secrets; use them to show off; or just hold on to them for some other reason.
I spent years talking to lots of Trump’s staff and business partners.
I feel confident that Trump saw some immediate benefit in these secrets.
That *could* be selling them for money. But it also could mean something smaller: he liked being able to show off that he had them to gain momentary favor in someone’s eyes.
I would say it is very unlikely that he didn’t have some immediate benefit in mind.
Trump has no history of thinking long-term, patiently holding on to potentially valuable things for reasons that can’t immediately be turned into some benefit.
In short: it is highly likely he *used* them in some way.
Now, he is a very very bad evaluator of value.
I have long said that it’s not the corruption that is shocking. It’s the ineptitude of the corruption.
He could have made a LOT more money on the sketchy FSU projects he worked on.
But he’s impulsive and dumb and has no long-term vision. He’ll take $500,000 today instead of a high likelihood of making $50M a few years from now.
So, whatever benefit he got could be something way more stupid and small than any of us can imagine.
Think Seinfeld not Bond villain.
Like Trump heard that Ike Perlmutter said something condescending about how little Trump knows and so he wanted to show that he has the most valuable secrets in the world.
This means he is very easily playable.
People like Tom Barrack would know how to prompt him to hold and share the docs.
So, this can be both some small, pathetic dumb thing and, also, the gravest national security risk of all time.
The q of whether he sold it for billions or for a quick ego boost is irrelevant.
Originally tweeted by Adam Davidson (@adamdavidson) on August 12, 2022.
He never leaves a penny on the sidewalk.