Grain of salt time
There’s a lot of talk today about polling errors in the past two years making it probable that Democratic optimism about this fall’s election is also misplaced. I won’t argue. It’s just more supposition based upon historical examples that may or may not come true. In fact, I’m much more interested in the data about first time voter registration which is real data and indicates that there is a serious gender gap among new voters:
I don’t think it’s grasping at straws to note that and make an informed supposition that it’s caused by the Roe ruling. This would likely translate to an increase in votes for Democrats which may not be being picked up in the polls. (I don’t see the data-guys making that point.)
Also, they are mostly young first-time voters which is also difficult to poll:
I am going to hold to my belief that it’s foolish to make predictions about this election based upon historical precedent. Our current political environment is unprecedented. The best thing to do is just try to get as many Democrats to the polls and hope for the best.