How some people win even when they lose
The Brazilian election yesterday has resulted in a run-off between the two top rivals, Lula and Bolsonaro. But much of the coverage last night seemed as though Bolsonaro had actually won because he outperformed the polls. Headlines like “Bolsonaro surprisingly strong, forces Brazil runoff.”
But Bolsonaro is the incumbent and he lost which is a major failure. In America that would be the end of it because we don’t have a run-off system. The fact that he got more votes than the polls predicted doesn’t mean he won anything.
It’s possible that Bolsonaro could win in the runoff, of course. But most observers think that’s unlikely because those who voted for others than him in the first round are unlikely to do so in the second round. The real question is why this incumbent president with a huge profile did so poorly.