Or maybe better?
Harvard’s Kennedy School releases its 44th youth poll:
A national poll released today by the Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School indicates that 40% of 18-to-29-year-olds state that they will “definitely” vote in the November 8 midterm elections, on track to match or potentially exceed the record-breaking 2018 youth turnout in a midterm election. Young voters prefer Democratic control of Congress 57% to 31% (up five points for Democrats since spring), but 12% remain undecided.
President Biden’s job approval has dropped again to 39% among young Americans, down from 41% in the IOP Spring 2022 poll and down 20 percentage points since our first spring poll after President Biden took office. There is a 20-point job approval gap among those who report that they follow the news closely (48% approve) vs. those who do not follow the news (28%).
The poll finds that nearly 40% of Republicans cited inflation as the most important issue driving their midterm vote; Democrats are moved by abortion (20%), protecting democracy (20%), inflation (19%), and climate change (16%). More than 7-in-10 young Americans (72%) believe that the rights of others are under attack, and 59% believe that their own rights are under attack.
Kennedy School director John Della Volpe believes we will see a Gen Z wave in November. “Youth today vote at levels that far exceed millennials, Gen X, and baby boomers when they were under 30.”
The U.S. Census reported this (below) about 2018 midterm voting by age.
That’s all good news. But it’s hard to see that reflexive midterm-to-midterm comparisons hold up after the Trump years. It’s how polling business as usual is done. But I have to hope this election will not be business as usual. The 2018 midterm turnout was blow-out. Reporting celebrated the spike in the youth vote.
In the 2020 presidential election, voters 18-29 voted in even greater numbers than in 2018: closer to 50%. I don’t want to harsh Gen Z’s buzz, but as upbeat as the Harvard video is, if turnout by younger voters is in the 40% range, that’s not something to celebrate. Younger voters are still leaving a lot of power on the table. Oldsters outvote them by over 15 points.
The image you’ve seen again and again makes that graphically clear. The data do not apply just in North Carolina.
The power is right there waiting for people to close their fingers around it.