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Month: October 2022

Get that booster!

And do it soon. Winter is coming.

A data-driven segment on vaccines and boosters worth watching.
Thanks @chrislhayes for staying on this as we face a new wave in the weeks ahead with an exceptionally low (34%) booster rate (half that of all high income countries)

2 key data points from the segment

Keep this summary data–preventing deaths–in mind

Originally tweeted by Eric Topol (@EricTopol) on October 8, 2022.

I can’t tell you how many people my age (aka old) I have told to get the new vaccine who have told me they just don’t plan to do it. “It’s no worse than a cold” and “I know plenty of people who got it and they’re fine” and “long COVID is just PTSD.” Others have said they didn’t know about it or that they’ll get it eventually they just don’t think it’s necessary right now.

I don’t know what to say. I send information, I send reminders, I try to convince them and while I have had some small success it really doesn’t seem to penetrate. I’m very worried. People will die solely because they refused to get vaccinated and I will never understand it.

Update:

A fall COVID-19 booster campaign could:

Prevent 90,000 deaths
Prevent 936,000 hospitalizations
Avert $56 billion in direct medical costs

This is according to new estimates by @MeaganCFitz, @abhiganit, @Alison_Galvani & colleagues @commonwealthfnd. 1/2

With the recent authorization of bivalent boosters, “a vaccination campaign that moves aggressively could avert a surge of hospitalizations and deaths, and save money in the process,” write the researchers.

Read the full study ⬇️ 2/2

https://www.commonwealthfund.org/blog/2022/fall-covid-19-booster-campaign-could-save-thousands-lives-billions-dollars

Originally tweeted by Yale School of Public Health (@YaleSPH) on October 6, 2022.

QOTD: Dark Brandon

If hypocrisy hadn’t been abandoned by the GOP, this might make them uncomfortable. But they are shameless so whatevs. Still, I enjoyed it.

She seems nice

And she seems nuts

A lovely person, perfectly qualified for a high executive office in a big state:

A Republican running a family values campaign is certainly not a headline.

But Michigan GOP Secretary of State nominee Kristina Karamo has combined that message with her penchant for conspiracy theories, ties to extremist groups and a belief that Satan is involved in everything from yoga to churches that hang rainbow flags.

In a video captured during the Michigan Republican Party convention in August, Karamo placed abortion as the foundational reason for her entry into politics.

“I’m pro-life from conception to natural death and that’s the reason I got into politics is to fight against abortion,” said Karamo. 

It’s an unusual approach when seeking a post running a state agency whose services include “administering election law and voter registration, licensing drivers, registering and titling vehicles, regulating auto dealerships and repair facilities, licensing auto mechanics, commissioning notaries public and overseeing the Office of the Great Seal.”

Karamo is trying to oust Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson on Nov. 8.

Karamo, a one-time community college instructor, rose to prominence within the Republican Party for her devotion to the thoroughly disproven conspiracy that the 2020 election was stolen. In fact, President Joe Biden won Michigan by more than 154,000 votes.

The Republican alleged there was illegal vote counting at the former TCF Center in downtown Detroit where she showed up as a self-appointed “poll challenger.” However, her allegations, which she stated in an affidavit, were based on a misunderstanding of the process that was underway there in which approximately 174,000 absentee ballots were being counted.

While Karamo did not respond to requests for comment for this story, she did give a statement to the Detroit Free Press standing by her allegations.

“The allegations in my affidavit ARE accurate. I submitted an affidavit regarding what I personally witnessed. You have never investigated the specific allegations in my affidavit, nor has anyone else. THEREFORE, you CAN NOT [sic] claim my allegations were ‘inaccurate,’” Karamo said.

After former President Donald Trump encouraged supporters to storm the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, where Congress was scheduled to certify the 2020 election results, Karamo dismissed the insurrection attempt as a false-flag operation — another popular far-right conspiracy.

“Based on the series of evidence and knowing how these situations work, how these anarchists operate, I believe this is completely Antifa posing as Trump supporters,” Karamo said. “I mean, anybody can buy a MAGA hat and put on a t-shirt and buy a Trump flag.”

While that statement was made the day after the insurrection, Karamo has never walked it back. 

She earned Trump’s endorsement, which helped her easily defeat two more experienced opponents, state Rep. Beau LaFave (R-Iron Mountain) and Chesterfield Township Clerk Cindy Berry at the Michigan Republican Party’s early endorsement convention this spring.

Should Karamo win the Nov. 8 general election, she would no longer be a mere participant in election conspiracies; she would be in charge of the election apparatus itself. 

Trump former adviser Steve Bannon and other Republicans have made no secret of their desire to control the elections process at the state and local level to help ensure future GOP victories. 

To that end, there’s the America First Secretary of State Coalition, founded by Jim Marchant, the Republican nominee in Nevada. The group backs Karamo, Arizona Republican Secretary of State nominee Mark Finchem and Pennsylvania gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano — because the Keystone State’s governor gets to appoint the secretary of state.

All four states were won by Biden in 2020 and are considered key to the 2024 presidential election.

I don’t think it’s useful anymore to question what makes these people tick. It’s what makes the voters who vote for them tick. What happened in our society that would make millions of people think this makes any sense at all? Mass hysteria?

I’m posting stories about these various lunatics running for office around the country in the lead up to the election because I want to document this weird period. But every time I do it I get a shiver down my spine that they might just win. I suspect this one won’t. Michigan seems to have some sense and these kooks are down in the polls. But that’s not true everywhere.

How they lost yet another chance to end his political career

The second impeachment trial’s pivotal moment

An interesting article on why the impeachment managers were thwarted in getting witnesses to testify in Trump’s second impeachment trial:

Inside the managers’ room, as Swalwell tried to call Greg Pence, Berke phoned [conservative lawyer and ally Charles]Cooper to see if he’d had any luck finagling permission for Marc Short to testify. Raskin, standing next to him, watched on tenterhooks — and saw his counsel’s face sink. Berke then passed the phone over so Raskin could hear the bad news for himself. Cooper had spoken to Pence’s attorney Richard Cullen: They were not going to cooperate voluntarily. In fact, Pence’s team planned to fight the subpoenas if they were summoned, Cooper said, and had refused to give a preview of what Short might say if called. That meant the managers would have little indication of whether his story was even worth pursuing.

“Don’t fuck this up by calling witnesses you might not get,” Cooper told Raskin candidly. “You have a good case right now…If I were you, I don’t think I’d want to risk the record you have… How does it get better? It sure as hell can get worse.”

Cooper’s words gave Raskin pause. The influential conservative lawyer was a partisan, but in that moment he was also their ally — and to date, he had been straight with them. If he thought they should drop this effort, maybe they should listen.

“Well, that came up . . . Short,” Raskin joked awkwardly, making the obvious pun with the elusive witness’s surname.

A few minutes later, Swalwell came back relaying his own deadend: Greg Pence hadn’t even answered his phone.

In the midst of the commotion, Senator Chris Coons walked through the door. The stocky lawyer from Delaware with a purposeful demeanor was a committed Democratic moderate known around the building as Biden’s closest ally in the Senate. Though he had just voted for witnesses, Coons couldn’t understand the logic of the managers’ gambit. And he was worried about the trial dragging out and hurting the new president. In fact, Trump’s defense lawyers, furious and blindsided by Raskin’s witness move, had vowed just before the vote that if Raskin called even one witness, they would seek to depose at least one hundred of their own, including Pelosi and Vice President Kamala Harris. That meant possibly hours of floor debate about which witnesses were relevant — and possibly days or weeks of testimony that could overshadow Biden’s presidency until late February or March. It was a threat that met its mark, as senators on the floor, including other Democrats who had just backed Raskin’s witness strategy, fretted about having to endure elongated proceedings. What’s more, Several Republicans had indicated to Coons that they were ready to convict the president — but if the trial spun out of control, there was no telling what might happen.

With those frustrations in mind, Coons had marched into Schumer’s office and demanded to know what the hell was going on. Schumer had permitted the vote, but he also was befuddled by Raskin’s move. He told Coons he didn’t know what Raskin’s game plan was. The Democratic leader was skeptical the ploy would work anyway. If running for their lives on Jan. 6 wasn’t enough to persuade Republicans to convict Trump, then it was hard to believe any other witness would, Schumer reasoned. Coons, who held a similar mindset, offered to go talk to Raskin’s team himself to shut the entire thing down. When Schumer gave him the nod, the senator headed to find the managers.

“I know when a jury is ready to vote, and this jury is ready to vote,” Coons declared when he entered the managers’ room.

As the team gathered around him, Coons argued that Republicans had already made up their minds and that calling witnesses was a waste of time. Democrats, he argued, had bigger fish to fry: Biden still needed the Senate to confirm most of his Cabinet, and he had a legislative agenda to get onto the floor.

“Dragging this out will not be good for the American project or for the American people. We’re trying to do a lot,” he said, choosing terms that sounded to the managers like they came straight from the White House. Coons floated a possible compromise: Have Herrera Beutler make a written affidavit detailing her story, Coons instructed. Then, let the defense get a statement from McCarthy and be done with it.

“I’m not taking that deal,” Raskin said flatly, stunned that Coons, as a fellow lawyer, would expect any prosecutor to entertain such unsavory terms. “No way are we allowing McCarthy to deny Herrera Beutler’s story without cross-examining him.”

But Coons was adamant. “You’re going to lose Republican votes,” he warned them. “Everyone here wants to go home. They have flights for Valentine’s Day. Some of them are already missing their flights.”

Berke jumped in, telling Coons the managers hoped to depose Herrera Beutler and McCarthy by video conference that very day. “Listen, Senator, we hear you on the delay,” he said. “But I have to tell you this is going to go quickly … And we can do closing arguments tomorrow.”

Coons was incredulous at Berke’s naïveté. “That’s nuts!” he shot back. McCarthy would never agree to testify before retaining counsel, he retorted. If they were lucky — and that was a big if — it would take days to depose the GOP leader, not hours.

“I encourage you all to just do affidavits,” Coons said sternly. “Do it today and reach a swift resolution.”

As he turned to leave, Coons added one more thing. “And just to be clear,” he said over his shoulder, “I’m here speaking only for myself.”

When the door closed behind him, the room broke into collective outrage.

“You have a good case right now . . . If I were you, I don’t think I’d want to risk the record you have . . . How does it get better? It sure as hell can get worse.”

“Are you fucking kidding me?” Cicilline said, turning to Neguse. “We are impeaching a president of the United States for inciting a violent insurrection against the government, and these motherfuckers want to go home for Valentine’s Day? Really?”

He wasn’t the only one who felt that way. The managers viewed their jobs as one of the most serious things they would ever do in their lives. And yet their own party was pressuring them so they could go enjoy the long weekend. How shortsighted. How repugnant. And how disrespectful.

It’s always “we don’t want to look in the rear view mirror.” Disrespectful indeed. Here we are still dealing with the fallout of that one.

Expect traffic delays between Russia and Crimea

Ukrainian Twitter sends Putin birthday wishes

There was some “minor” damage to the Kerch bridge early this morning. The bridge is a key supply route between occupied Crimea and the Russian mainland.

The Guardian:

Three people were killed after a truck bomb caused a fire and the collapse of a section of a bridge linking Russia with Crimea, Russian officials said.

Russia’s national anti-terrorism committee said the truck bomb set alight seven railway carriages carrying fuel, resulting in a “partial collapse of two sections of the bridge”.

A man and a woman who were riding in a vehicle across the bridge were killed by the explosion and their bodies were recovered, Russia’s investigative committee said. It did not provide details on the third victim.

Meanwhile, Russia’s defence ministry said Russian troops fighting in the Mykolaiv, Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia regions of southern Ukraine could receive all the supplies they needed via existing land and sea corridors.

Saturday’s explosion on the road-and-rail bridge, which has been used to take Russian personnal and military supplies through the peninsula into other parts of southern Ukraine, brought down sections of road taking traffic in one direction and also damaged railway tracks.

The third victim was perhaps the truck driver?

Question: What kind of security did the Russians have (or not have) for screening traffic crossing such a strategic piece of infrastructure?

The New York Times reminds readers:

The 12-mile-long Kerch Strait Bridge is a cherished political project of President Vladimir V. Putin and had become a potent symbol of the claims that Mr. Putin makes to the peninsula, which his forces illegally seized from Ukraine in 2014. Mr. Putin presided over the opening of the bridge in 2018, personally driving a truck across.

“Kyiv stopped short of claiming responsibility,” reports Associated Press.

Ukrainian twitter, however, rushed to mock Russia and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Putin’s birthday is October 7.

What with Russians defecting across the Bering Strait, Donald Trump’s BFF is not having a good week, PR-wise.

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Trump held documents hostage?

He wanted to cut a deal for Russia investigation records

When the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) approached TFG Trump in September last year to return records he removed from the White House, he offered a trade. He would exchange them for others he thought would prove “Russia, Russia, Russia” was the hoax he’d always claimed.

Donald Trump was holding the trove of stolen documents hostage, Maggie Haberman and Michael S. Schmidt reveal this morning in the New York Times:

Mr. Trump, still determined to show he had been wronged by the F.B.I. investigation into his 2016 campaign’s ties to Russia, was angry with the National Archives and Records Administration for its unwillingness to hand over a batch of sensitive documents that he thought proved his claims.

In exchange for those documents, Mr. Trump told advisers, he would return to the National Archives the boxes of material he had taken to Mar-a-Lago, in Palm Beach, Fla.

Mr. Trump’s aides never pursued the idea. But the episode is one in a series that demonstrates how Mr. Trump spent a year and a half deflecting, delaying and sometimes leading aides to dissemble when it came to demands from the National Archives and ultimately the Justice Department to return the material he had taken, interviews and documents show.

Trump’s habit of taking documents back to his White House bedroom began early in his tenure and was known to NARA officials including Gary M. Stern, the agency’s top lawyer. Trump had perhaps two dozen boxes of presidential records stored in the residence as his term expired.

Dissemble, deny, and delay were how Trump instructed aides to deal with NARA. Some of the boxes, Trump told some aides, held only newspaper clippings and personal items. He told others they held dirty laundry.

By late October or early November, as Stern messaged with Trump lawyer Alex Cannon about reclaiming the boxes, Trump proposed a swap.

It was around that same time that Mr. Trump floated the idea of offering the deal to return the boxes in exchange for documents he believed would expose the Russia investigation as a “hoax” cooked up by the F.B.I. Mr. Trump did not appear to know specifically what he thought the archives had — only that there were items he wanted.

Mr. Trump’s aides — recognizing that such a swap would be a non-starter since the government had a clear right to the material Mr. Trump had taken from the White House and the Russia-related documents held by the archives remained marked as classified — never acted on the idea.

A spokesman for Mr. Trump did not respond to a request for comment. A representative for the archives did not respond to a request for comment. Mr. Cannon declined a request for comment.

Only after examining the 15 boxes retrieved from Mar-a-Lago in January did NARA realize they contained classified materials. They moved them quickly to a secured area for further review. NARA notified the Department of Justice that restricted documents had been mishandled. The Times does not report what Trumpish dirty laundry, if any, was found.

A second tranche of documents turned over in June and a third set retrieved when the FBI searched Mar-a-Lago in August turned up more classified, Top Secret, and ultra-sensitive documents. These and others still unaccounted for are part of an investigation into Trump for which the former president may still face criminal charges for obstruction if not worse.

Since last winter Trump tried (and in one case succeeded) multiple times to pressure his attorneys to certify that he had returned all the records he’d taken. Yet documents associated with dozens of empty folders marked classified remain missing. The Department of Justice suspects Trump may still have them. Few speculate aloud that he may have transferred them to a third party as part of some other Trump “deal.”

The Times report floats the possibility that Trump simply might be holding back documents he considers “mine,” or that he’s keeping them in reserve as leverage to exchange for others he thinks will benefit him more.

This is petulant child behavior from a 76-year-old career criminal who once had his finger on the nuclear button and who hopes to again in 2025. No one except the deluded would trust Donald Trump as far as they can throw him. (Good luck with that.) Yet he retains a devoted following of cultists and groupies who believe he’s God’s Chosen One who all but walks on water.

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Request a copy of For The Win, 4th Edition, my free, countywide get-out-the-vote planning guide for county committees at ForTheWin.us

Friday Night Soother

The first time Mike Fitz saw a bear in the wild, in 2007, he did what he was trained to do: He made a lot of noise.

“You can read and listen to all of the advice — it helps prepare you mentally, but at the same time I’m thinking, ‘Oh, that is a bear in front of me, looking at me,’” Mr. Fitz said. “What am I going to do now?”

This particular bear, on top of Dumpling Mountain in Katmai National Park in Alaska, however, was not exactly an imminent threat. The bear was about a quarter-mile away from Mr. Fitz, and his yells across the vast landscape barely made a dent. “I hadn’t figured out that making noise is appropriate in certain situations,” he said. “The bear probably heard me and thought, ‘What is this two-legged creature doing?’”

The encounter proved to be a formative moment for Mr. Fitz, and for millions of bear fans around the world. Mr. Fitz is the founder of Fat Bear Week, now in its ninth year. What began as a way for Mr. Fitz, a former park ranger, to engage with visitors to Katmai has “spiraled.”

“I thought it would be a quirky thing Katmai could do every year, and it is, but I did not expect it to be this popular,” he said.

Last year’s contest attracted more than 600,000 votes; the winner of Fat Bear Junior 2022, a spinoff competition for cubs that ran on Sept. 28 and 29, received more than 69,000 votes. No. 909’s Yearling was crowned champion and is now moving on to the adult competition.

Fat Bear Week has become a weeklong, bracket-style elimination contest that pits the bulkiest bears of Katmai National Park against one another. The public votes on a website hosted by explore.org, where Mr. Fitz is now the resident naturalist, and the bear with the most votes advances to the next round. Voting began on Wednesday, and a king or queen of the pack will be named on Oct. 11, otherwise known as Fat Bear Tuesday.

Here’s the LIVE Cam at Katmai. The bears don’t seem too hungry right now. They are very fat.

The terrible burden of patriarchy

Your fatuous quote of the day:

Incumbent Republican Rep. John Curtis of Utah, who calls himself “unapologetically pro-life,” said during a debate with his Democratic challenger in the 2022 election, Glenn Wright, that he wishes women could decide on state laws regulating abortion, but that overwhelmingly male legislatures have to do it themselves.

“Now look, I get it. If you’re a woman, it stinks that most of these legislatures are men. Most of these decisions are made by men. I wish it were other than that. I wish as a man I didn’t have to make this decision. I wish women could make this decision,” Curtis said during the debate in Salt Lake City on Thursday night. “That being said, it falls on state legislatures to thoughtfully decide in their state what they want to do.”

Actually, he has it fully within his power to allow women to make the decision. He just wants to make sure they don’t make a decision he doesn’t agree with.

This is patriarchy trying to be modern. It just doesn’t work.

And, by the way, “states” are just a method of organizing government. They are not “endowed by their creator with inalienable rights.” That’s for people, not abstract organizing functions.

Retribution for the evil librarians

Nothing is to petty for Trump enact revenge upon it

TPM reports that Trump is just as vengeful as ever:

Trump has reportedly been telling close allies since sometime this summer that he would want to get rid of a handful of agency officials if he runs and wins again in 2024 and would would make it a top priority for his second term, two sources familiar with the matter told Rolling Stone.

Trump’s reportedly gotten into specifics in these conversations, too, outlining who he would fire and even asking close allies who he should install in top positions. Peep this hilarious nugget from Rolling Stone:

In some of these conversations, the former president has referenced specific officials — all installed during Democratic administrations — who he’d want to immediately “get rid of” and have replaced with pliable loyalists. One of these sources says that it was clear from the conversation that someone in Trump’s orbit had been slipping him names or lists of potential targets.

In other instances, the ex-president has also casually solicited recommendations for conservatives to install at the National Archives and Records Administration, including for the top post of archivist. At least one Trump confidant threw out John Solomon, a Trump ally and conservative journalist, as an apparently serious suggestion, one of the people with knowledge of this matter says.

Aside from the FBI, it’s the former president’s least favorite federal agency. Ever since FBI agents raided his Mar-a-Lago resort this summer to take back the classified materials that Trump failed to hand over to NARA and hoarded at his Florida home, Trump’s been disparaging the agency, tossing out claims that it’s part of the “deep state,” his favorite term to fling at anyone or thing that tries to hold him accountable. At a rally this week, Trump introduced another favored smear against the agency: “woke.”

Some of Trump’s allies have also filed lawsuits against the National Archives in recent weeks, which Rolling Stone gets into more here.

The National Archives have come into Trump cross hairs because they reported him for stealing documents from the government. In other words, doing their jobs.

Will Hunter Biden go to jail?

Could very well be

I would bet it’s far more likely than Trump or any member of his family doing it. After all, he doesn’t have an army of fanatics threatening to blow up the country if they cross Trump.

It appears that Hunter is in trouble:

Federal agents investigating Hunter Biden believe they have enough evidence to charge him with lying on his taxes and on an application to purchase a gun, according to the Washington Post.

But as the Post notes, it’s Justice Department prosecutors, not federal agents, who will determine whether charges are filed — and it’s not clear what they’re thinking. The decision will ultimately rest with David C. Weiss, the U.S. Attorney for Delaware, who was appointed by Donald Trump in 2017.

One possible tax charge would likely stem from Biden’s failure to declare income related to his nebulous lobbying work in Ukraine and China. An investigation into his taxes has been ongoing for many years; as the New York Times reported earlier this year, that probe took on a broader scope during the Trump years. Biden made a $2 million tax payment earlier this year that he might have hoped would forestall any charges.

The possible gun charge involves Biden’s answer on a federal firearms-licensing form that asks if the applicant is “an unlawful user of, or addicted to, marijuana or any depressant, stimulant, narcotic drug, or any other controlled substance.” He reportedly answered “no” when purchasing a firearm in 2018 despite having chronicled his addiction to crack cocaine. The Post notes that it is “relatively rare” for such gun cases to be prosecuted and that prosecutors have wide discretion on whether to pursue them.

Trump’s daughter and son in law were in the White House, refused to divest their businesses and made millions even as they were directly influencing policy decisions. Once out, within months, Jared Kushner got a 2 billion dollar windfall. Don Jr and Eric, neck deep in politics, were running around the world pimping Trump properties while their father was president. Is any of that illegal? I don’t know.

I also don’t know if they properly filed their taxes but I doubt it. They are chips off the old block and Donald Trump certainly cheats. He brags about it. Somehow I doubt that they will be investigated and even if they are nothing will come of it.

If Hunter broke the law he should pay. He may go to prison. (I hope they put him in protective custody if he does because he will be in massive personal danger if they don’t.) And if Trump is not similarly indicted, it will just reinforce the idea that he is both a super-hero and a persecuted martyr.

And, by the way, the right is going to have a cow if Hunter isn’t prosecuted for influence peddling and corruption. These agents who have leaked this information to pressure the Trump appointed prosecutor would surely have made that case if they could but I doubt Fox News will accept that.