The next one will be the big one: election results
Following up on my post below, take a look at the lede in this story about the last NBC poll:
“President Biden and the Democrats are in for a miserable election,” said Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, who conducted this survey with Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt and his team at Hart Research Associates.
“The Democrats have to run way ahead of the president to win a statewide race,” said McInturff. “I would expect to see to see a large number of losses in the House and possibly a switch in control of the Senate.”
Wow, it’s going to be a blow out! The Republicans are such big winners! I can hardly believe it. Everyone should want to be on that awesome winning team, amirite?
Ok. Now read this analysis of the poll and tell me if that opinion lines up with the findings. Maybe I’m crazy but it sure looks to me as if the issues are all over the place and the findings are very inconclusive.
‘Threats to democracy,’ economy rank as top midterm issues
When voters were asked what they consider the nation’s most important issue, 23% answered with “threats to democracy,” 20% said jobs and the economy, and 17% replied with the cost of living — consistent with past NBC News polls.
But when asked which set of issues was more important in deciding their vote, 50% of voters said a candidate’s position on abortion, threats to democracy and addressing the cost of living by raising taxes on corporations (which largely has been the Democratic message).
That’s compared with 44% who picked a candidate’s position on crime, the situation at the border and addressing the cost of living by cutting government spending (largely the Republican message).
And when asked which one issue was more important in deciding their vote — a candidate’s position on the cost of living, or a candidate’s position on abortion — 58% of voters said cost of living, while 38% said abortion.
Independents, swing-state voters down on Biden
The final NBC News poll before the elections shows 44% of registered voters approving of President Biden’s job performance — down 1 point from October.
By contrast, 53% say they disapprove, which is up 1 point from a month ago.
Biden’s 44% approval rating is similar to the standings for former Presidents Barack Obama (45%) and Donald Trump (46%) in the final NBC News/WSJ poll before their first midterm election when their party lost control of at least one chamber of Congress.
Biden enjoys his highest ratings among Black voters (78% approve of his job), Latinos (52%), urban voters (50%) and women (48%).
But his lowest numbers are among suburban voters (43%), men (38%), white voters (37%), rural voters (29%) and independents (28%).
Among voters living in the 2020 presidential swing states, his approval rating is 40%.
Additionally, the poll finds a whopping 72% of voters believing the country is headed in the wrong direction, versus just 21% who think it’s on the right track.
And a combined 81% of voters say they are either “very” dissatisfied (50%) or “somewhat” dissatisfied (31%) with the state of the economy, while a combined 19% are either “very” satisfied (3%) or “somewhat” satisfied (16%).
Other findings
38% of all voters say they’ve already voted, either by mail (19%) or early in person (19%), another 13% say they plan to vote early, and 45% say they will be voting at the polls on Election Day.
Former President Barack Obama is the most popular figure measured in the poll (at 51% positive, 37% negative) — followed by President Biden (42% positive, 50% negative), the Democratic Party (38% positive, 47% negative), the Republican Party (35% positive, 48% negative) and former President Donald Trump (35% positive, 55% negative).
This is the one that gets me:
And voters are divided on their choice of the bigger concern about the upcoming election — 47% are more concerned that Republicans will take control of Congress and make the wrong kinds of changes, versus 45% who are more concerned that Democrats will continue to control Congress and not make enough change.
How that points to a clear GOP rout is beyond me.
McInturff is doing what GOP pollsters always do and they have no shame at all in doing it. He’s pimping the bandwagon effect. There is nothing in his poll that shows an inevitable GOP sweep. It could happen of course. But it could go the other way too. And he knows it.