Hell if I know…
Amy Walter at The Cook Report has three possible scenarios:
1. The Classic “Tsunami” Election
We can put the 1994/2006/2010 midterms into this category. In this scenario, the bottom drops out for the party in the White House. Not only do the closest races tip to Republicans, but the GOP picks up seats in unexpected places.
Two things need to happen for this scenario to play out: 1) Democratic voters are less motivated to vote while Republicans turnout at much higher levels and 2) independent voters break decisively toward Republicans by 12-15 points.
In this scenario, Republicans would win at least 30 House seats and 3-4 Senate seats.
How Do We Know If This Will Happen:
Watch the New Hampshire Senate race. Polls close in the Granite State at 7 pm. Republicans have argued for months that Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan is vulnerable. However, they failed to put up a top tier candidate, allowing her to control this contest’s narrative for months. If she loses, we should expect to see Republicans picking up at least two, if not three Senate seats.
In the House, watch VA-10, where First Lady Jill Biden is rallying voters on election eve. This northern Virginia seat voted for Biden by 18 points. If Republican Hung Cao defeats Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D), it’s a sure sign that the blue firewall has been breached.
2. A “Wavey” Election
The closest historical example would be the 2018 midterms. In this scenario, turnout is roughly even to slightly better for Republicans. Independent voters, however, break decisively for Republicans (say by 10-12 points). The closest races break for Republicans, but there are fewer ‘surprise’ pick-ups.
This scenario would produce a GOP gain in the House in the 20s and a likely one-seat gain in the Senate.
How Do We Know If This Will Happen:
Watch the Pennsylvania Senate and IN-01 races. A Dr. Oz win in Pennsylvania would not just give GOPers a morale boost but would serve as a serious roadblock for continued Democratic control of the Senate.
To get into the 20+ seat range, Republicans need to pick off districts that voted for Biden by 6 points or more in 2020. Heavily blue-collar IN-01 voted for Biden by 8 points.
3. A Red Ripple
We don’t have an analog in recent years for this type of midterm election. In this scenario, Democratic and Republican turnout is basically equal — with both sides able to juice their base. Instead of breaking decisively for Republicans, independent voters give Republicans a small advantage. Republicans pick up seats in pink/red districts and states, but fail to make gains into districts or states that Biden won handily in 2020.
In this scenario, Democrats lose the House by a very small margin (maybe 8-12 seats) and Democrats keep the Senate.
How Do We Know If This Will Happen:
Watch the Pennsylvania Senate and OH-13 races. If Democrats win the Pennsylvania Senate, this does not guarantee they will hold the Senate. But, it means they can afford to lose one of their own incumbents and still hold onto a 50-50 senate.
If Republicans are going to have a good night, they have to be able to win CDs like the open Akron-based 13th CD in Ohio. If Republicans aren’t winning in districts that Biden narrowly carried (he won here by 3 points in 2020), it’s hard to see how they win in much bluer territory.
I do know one thing. If you were to spend your day watching cable news you would think it’s all over and the red Tsunami is inevitable. Luckily most people who watch cable news are probably the types who vote early or are dedicated voters regardless so this depressing coverage won’t affect them. But if you happen to tune in and think that it’s all over because pof the way they are covering the election on election day, turn it off. They can’t tell the future but they sure can impact it.