This analysis of the GOP primary electorate sounds right to me. But it doesn’t tell the whole story:
Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster, says the party’s electorate can be divided into three key buckets. A small group, roughly 10 percent, are “Never Trumpers,” Republicans who have long and vocally opposed Trump. A far larger group, about 40 percent, are “Always Trumpers,” his hardcore base that will never abandon him.
The remaining 50 percent or so, Ayres said, are “Maybe Tumpers” — Republicans who voted for him twice, who generally like his policies but who are now eager to escape the chaos that accompanies him.
“So they are open to supporting someone else who will do much of what they want without all of the baggage,” Ayres said. “So then the question becomes: Who?”
It’s the 40%, stupid. Trump controls them. And unless you believe he would gracefully concede a primary loss and swing his support to the winner, he will keep them. There is no chance of a general election win without Trump getting his 40% behind the winner. Is there any chance of that?
Lol. No. And deep down these Republicans know this.